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Thread: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

  1. #16
    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by The Voice of IH View Post
    I really would like to dump Arroyo, but it ain't happening. Bailey is in the rotation, while Chapman is in the minors.
    I think Arroyo is going to be a problem all season. He's the 6th best starter on the team. His salary pencils him in as a sure fire SP.

    There will be injuries, and the Reds should and probably will do what the options will dictate, and keep everyone and postpone the decision making until real performance decides.

    I also agree that the bullpen is a problem.

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  3. #17
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    I would still give Chapman a shot.

  4. #18
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Would anyone put Arroyo through waivers? I was thinking about that last night, that's not a bad option either.

  5. #19
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by hebroncougar View Post
    Would anyone put Arroyo through waivers? I was thinking about that last night, that's not a bad option either.
    If he's claimed, you'd need to pay all of his deferred money on his way to another team.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  6. #20
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    You know, at this point don't the Reds already consider that money spent? Now its just about trying to get the most production for that money. If keeping him in the rotation over a more productive pitcher hurts the team overall...it wouldn't surprise me all that much to see them move Bronson (to the pen or another team). That money is spent either way. If moving him out and bringing in someone to replace him would end up costing even MORE money...then I could see the hesitation. But his "replacement" is already a sunk cost too in Chapman.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
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  7. #21
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    You know, at this point don't the Reds already consider that money spent? Now its just about trying to get the most production for that money. If keeping him in the rotation over a more productive pitcher hurts the team overall...it wouldn't surprise me all that much to see them move Bronson (to the pen or another team). That money is spent either way. If moving him out and bringing in someone to replace him would end up costing even MORE money...then I could see the hesitation. But his "replacement" is already a sunk cost too in Chapman.
    Well, paying $15 Million over the period from 2014 to 2021 is diffferent than paying it all right now isn't it? The cost of your house is money already spent. Why not just pay it off today? Its the same thing right?
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  8. #22
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Well, paying $15 Million over the period from 2014 to 2021 is diffferent than paying it all right now isn't it? The cost of your house is money already spent. Why not just pay it off today? Its the same thing right?
    No, of course it isn't the same thing. That's why it's still a choice you hate to make. But if you have the funds and it helps in the short and long run...sometimes you've got to bite the bullet.

    That being said, I don't do it. I still think that Bronson bounces back.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  9. #23
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    No, of course it isn't the same thing. That's why it's still a choice you hate to make. But if you have the funds and it helps in the short and long run...sometimes you've got to bite the bullet.

    That being said, I don't do it. I still think that Bronson bounces back.
    My assumption is they don't have the funds or they wouldn't have negotiated a deferred $15 Million in the first place.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  10. #24
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    My assumption is they don't have the funds or they wouldn't have negotiated a deferred $15 Million in the first place.
    That's the trap of deferred money. It is the gift that keeps on giving. Aren't the Reds still paying deferred money to guys like Junior and Larkin? Or have those deferred payments finally come off the books?
    Opinions are like belly buttons. Everybody has one, and they don't want someone else's shoved into their face.

  11. #25
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    That's the trap of deferred money. It is the gift that keeps on giving. Aren't the Reds still paying deferred money to guys like Junior and Larkin? Or have those deferred payments finally come off the books?
    I think they are still paying Griffey, but Lindner was smart enough to insist on funding an annuity over the life of his contract so it shouldn't be a problem for the current budget. Don't know about Larkin, but I'd assume the same.

    The problem with Arroyo's deal is that the contract is still going, so even if the Reds are funding as they go, its far from all funded.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  12. #26
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    My assumption is they don't have the funds or they wouldn't have negotiated a deferred $15 Million in the first place.
    Yes and no, they may not have the funds to pay him the deferred money + the salary he'll earn this year. They may have the funds for just the deferred money.
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
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  13. #27
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier Red View Post
    Yes and no, they may not have the funds to pay him the deferred money + the salary he'll earn this year. They may have the funds for just the deferred money.
    That's a good thought. If they funded say $3 Million last year and save $6.5 this year on the payroll, they would only need to come up with another $6 Million or so.

    Still doubtful IMO. I still think Arroyo can be a solid but overpaid starter. Chapman hasn't proven anything as far as starting goes IMO.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  14. #28
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Start him in the #4 spot and be done with it.

    Bailey showed last year that everything is in place for him to be arguably the second best starter on the Reds 2012 roster behind Mat Latos.
    Over Johnny Cueto? That's a stretch.

    I'd even say its a stretch to say he could be placed above Leake or Arroyo.

  15. #29
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    I would say put him in the rotation. I think he's likely to be a 4-ish FIP pitcher which is pretty useful depending on how many innings he throws.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  16. #30
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by kheidg- View Post
    Over Johnny Cueto? That's a stretch.

    I'd even say its a stretch to say he could be placed above Leake or Arroyo.
    I wouldn't. Outside of IP, I'd say over the past three years, Bailey is pretty much what a pitcher of league average skill looks like. Leake probably squeaks in there as well.

    I'd say that's likely to continue.

    Arroyo has been more "league below average."

    I'd say that's likely to continue as well.

    I think Cueto is a better pitcher than Bailey but he (Cueto) has league average to a bit better than league average skill.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"


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