Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

[traderumor]

After the first he pitched well. I was at the game and watched batting practice. The wind was actually blowing in during the Cards BP. Maybe 3 balls were hit out. The ball died in the wind. But no lie when the Cards batted the wind was actually blowing out. When the Reds came to bat in the bottoms of the first the flags were not moving.

Strange yes indeed.

I don't know about the wind, but I would agree that he recovered well, a positive, for what its worth. But 4 runs on three homers is not getting it done in an outing.

[kaldaniels]

Here's a hypothetical question. You agree with a post saying that Homer should get half a season to prove himself.

What if Homer - or Arroyo for that matter - has say 7 bad starts in a row.

Would you still give each of them half a season?

Just testing your hypothesis.

7 bad starts in a row would be extremely rare for any pitcher. Arroyo was the worst pitcher in the league last year and his worst streak of 4+ runs was 6.

[Ghosts of 1990]

After the 1st inning he was good. He will be far from our problem this season, that's how I look at it. He has better stuff than Leake or Arroyo, you can't argue that. And they'll stick all season barring injury.

[WVPacman]

7 bad starts in a row would be extremely rare for any pitcher. Arroyo was the worst pitcher in the league last year and his worst streak of 4+ runs was 6.

This is off topic but

WINNING!!!

When I see your avatar that automaticly comes to my mind.

[fearofpopvol1]

I think it's a bit unfair to say people are overreacting to one start.

There was a healthy debate about Homer this spring. That debate was based on his historical numbers and his poor spring. Many folks, myself included, were and are skeptical that he can be a winning starting pitcher at this stage of his career. (My own concern is whether he has ever become fully healthy.)

Now, in his very first inning, he gets bombed. Three homers and four runs.

So folks are naturally unhappy and concerned. It's hard to be a ninety win team with ordinary (or worse) starting pitchers.

Of course, he will get more opportunities. But after the long debate about Homer, it was disheartening to see him begin the year reflecting previous issues with his pitching.

Do spring training games count for anything? Should they receive more merit than regular season games?

I like Chapman, but he's never pitched a full game at The Show. I'd much rather see him pitching in AAA until he gets stretched out. If he pitches well for 10 games and shows the improved control we think he has, great! And if Bailey stinks up the joint in the meantime, then I'd have no problem trading Homer in favor of Chapman.

Bailey had an attrocious first inning, but bounced back pretty nicely. It was a bad start, but it could've been worse.

The reality is that I would much prefer Chapman to Arroyo at this juncture. And further, I would prefer Bailey to Arroyo at this juncture. But we know that's not going to happen.

[fearofpopvol1]

I expect him to continue doing what he's been doing. Hopefully Chapman bumps him and the charade ends when the bullpen is full strength. Cueto/Latos/Chapman/Leake/Arroyo can probably get it done. Throw Bailey in there for Chapman and suddenly you have a rotation with 2 marginal number 5's. I don't think that will be enough to overtake St. Louis and Milwaukee.

How do you define a #5 starter? Are you saying Bailey is a marginal #5 starter?

[kaldaniels]

This is off topic but

WINNING!!!

When I see your avatar that automaticly comes to my mind.

Finally some sanity in here.

[The Operator]

Homer Bailey is a big-time victim of having a fan base expect the world out of him. To hear people talk about him, you'd expect to go look at his numbers and see 6.50 ERAs each and every year.

He has actually been very solid the last three seasons, he just hasn't been healthy. People must really get his bad games stuck in their head because there have been quite a few really good ones the last three season that everyone has seemingly forgotten about.

Homer is far from the biggest problem in the rotation. That would be the tall lanky guy with long blonde hair, who can't break a pane of glass with his fastball and is usually gassed by 75 pitches. Do something about him before you even think about demoting Homer.

[dougdirt]

This has to be a joke, right? I don't even know how to respond to that. Lets dig up the corpse of Eric Milton, he's thrown longer in games than Chapman too.

Yes, it was a joke. Kind of. Comparing what someone has done as a reliever to what someone has done as a starter is silly.

Chapman gave up 7 home runs in AAA in 2010. He has given up 2 since coming to the Majors (all as a reliever). Is that to say that AAA hitters are better than MLB ones? Of course not, but pitching out of the bullpen is an entirely different animal than pitching out of the rotation.

You kind of made my point.... I didn't really know how to respond to the original post. So I went out and found a stat that also said something that has next to no meaning to it.

[reds44]

Giving up three homers in an inning has no meaning to it?

[dougdirt]

Giving up three homers in an inning has no meaning to it?

In relation to Chapman in the bullpen, absolutely not.

[kaldaniels]

Giving up three homers in an inning has no meaning to it?

3 home runs in an inning is bad. No argument. But is 3 HR in an inning a litmus test of some sort?

Homer Bailey gave up 3 home runs in an inning. Therefore Homer Bailey is ________?

Colby Lewis gave up 3 home runs in an inning. Therefore Colby Lewis is ________?

Y Gallardo gave up 3 home runs in an inning. Therefore Y Gallarado is ________?

[kaldaniels]

Doug, I sense you are on my "side" here so what ever you say will probably be objected to...but in the game thread I was shut down when I mentioned that Chapman is not ready for the rotation. (regarding his stamina) What are your thoughts on the matter...I can't imagine today just sliding him on in (for arguments sake, Bailey's slot) and things going smoothly.

[M2]

Homer is far from the biggest problem in the rotation. That would be the tall lanky guy with long blonde hair, who can't break a pane of glass with his fastball and is usually gassed by 75 pitches. Do something about him before you even think about demoting Homer.

The guy who has pitched more innings and won more games than any Reds pitcher since Jose Rijo is the problem child? Yeah, Arroyo had a bad 2011. Given the amount of good he's done in a Reds uniform, and that three times previously in his career people insisted he was finito only to be proven wrong, I'm perfectly fine with giving him some leash.

Meanwhile Bailey hasn't done squat. He's done nothing to earn an automatic slot in the rotation. As far as he knew, he was pitching for his job during spring training ... and he responded by soiling his boxers. If he doesn't get himself right then there's no justification for handing him a baseball and sending him out to start a ballgame. It's go time for the Reds and they can't afford to waste time on some ex-prospect who never arrived.

[dougdirt]

Doug, I sense you are on my "side" here so what ever you say will probably be objected to...but in the game thread I was shut down when I mentioned that Chapman is not ready for the rotation. (regarding his stamina) What are your thoughts on the matter...I can't imagine today just sliding him on in (for arguments sake, Bailey's slot) and things going smoothly.

I think it would be a fools bet to toss Chapman into the rotation today and expect good results. I want Chapman starting, but I don't think he has shown that he can, yet. He has never thrown a change up/splitter to a Major League hitter. He has never gone 6 innings in back to back games. He leads all of baseball in walk rate over the last 2 years. I would send him to Louisville, give him 4 weeks worth of starts, see where he is, and then re-evaluate both him and the MLB guys and go from there.