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Thread: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

  1. #151
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by gilpdawg View Post
    And, to be fair, two of those HRs were GABP specials. Especially the Freese one.
    But that's ok. You live by the cheap home run (Bruce in the ninth Sunday) and you die by the cheap home run. Just the facts of life playing in a joke of a ballpark.
    I keep on seeing Bruce's HR described as a GAB cheapie. It was opposite field, to the gap, where the fence is the highest. Yes it barely cleared the fence, but only because it was a line drive. But cheap?

    GAB came into being in the height of the steroid era, it just can't shake a reputation even though there are other ballparks with higher HR rates now that the chemically induced muscles have been filtered from the game.
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  3. #152
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    IMO its time to cut ties with Bailey. At best he's inconsistent. He's not improved in the last three seasons. Make one good start followed by three shaky ones. Last night was very Volquez-like. Get your team behind by 4 runs in the first inning and fight uphill the rest of the night. I'm sorry but I have seen this story too many times in the past. He may just need new perspective from another team. Sometimes guys quit listening,go somewhere and hear the same thing in a different way and it clicks for them. This may be the tonic for Bailey to become a good consistent pitcher. It's not happening in Cincy though.
    Put Chapamn in the rotation and see what happens. We don't know if he will be good or not. But I hate to see a Randy Johnson-like pitcher coming out of the bullpen two or three times a week for an inning or two at the most. The Reds are doing themselves and Chapman a disservice by not giving him a really good shot at starting. If doesn't work out, so be it. I know one thing I don't want to see him go to the Yankees or the Red Sox or where ever and pitch like Randy Johnson.
    Reds Fan Since 1971

  4. #153
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by traderumor View Post
    I keep on seeing Bruce's HR described as a GAB cheapie. It was opposite field, to the gap, where the fence is the highest. Yes it barely cleared the fence, but only because it was a line drive. But cheap?

    GAB came into being in the height of the steroid era, it just can't shake a reputation even though there are other ballparks with higher HR rates now that the chemically induced muscles have been filtered from the game.
    I was going by Hit Tracker's data which stated that Bruce's HR would have only been a HR in 17 out of 30 parks. It was an odd looking trajectory on TV, however, so maybe Hit Tracker was fooled. I was thinking gap shot off the bat, and the sucker just kept going.

    Edited to add-the data from last night is out now. Freese's HR would have been a HR in 2 parks, and Holliday's in only 18. In almost every other park Freese's ball is caught on the track and we are out of the inning. Doesn't mean Homer didn't throw up a stink bomb last night, but it does make one wonder about the luck factor.
    Last edited by gilpdawg; 04-10-2012 at 08:09 AM.

  5. #154
    Member brad1176's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Here's what I see from Bailey, he's wild in the strike zone. Last night Hanigan was pleading with him to hit his spots and Bailey kept throwing it across the heart of the plate. Hanigan was constantly having to move and jump to catch Bailey. His fastball is straighter than the arrow tattoo on his forearm and he was throwing mid to low nineties, perfect storm for getting teed up. This is nothing new from him, which is what makes him frustrating to watch.

    The Reds didn't handle Bailey correctly when he was brought up, I don't blame him for that. He was rushed in as a kid and he literally looked terrified out on the mound his first few years. I think Bailey would probably benefit greatly from a change in scenery.
    "You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all." -Earl Weaver

  6. #155
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Bailey in 2011:

    132 IP

    1.28 WHIP
    7.2 K/9
    2.2 BB/9
    1.2 HR/9

    Give me 200+ innings of this (for $2.5MM) and I’d take it every day from my 26-year old #4/#5.

    The key to Bailey is him staying healthy. If he does, he’s a valuable asset to the rotation.

    As for last night, I think the homeplate umpire (Buckner?.....dude is terrible) squeezed him a few times. I was happy that Bailey stayed somewhat composed at such a tiny/inconsistent strike zone. I would have snapped.

    With all this said, I CAN understand the frustration some have with Bailey. This is his ninth year in the organization and he still has not seemed to put it all together. I have faith he will stay healthy this year and give us solid production out of the back of the rotation. IF he can stay healthy (and get to 200 IP this year), with his peripherals, he’ll be a very rich man come 2013 and beyond.

  7. #156
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    Here's my issue with Homer...and, yes, maybe it is unfair. But it's this:

    He has really good stuff. Plus fastball. Sharp breaking ball. When he appears to focus, good command. He has all the ingredients. And he has, for years. I have, up until this year, been solidly on the "he will put it together" team. But with the stuff he carries to the mound, with the stretches of good pitching he puts together within a game, it is infuriating to see the lapses from him within games that doom him to "league average pitcher" and touch off the arguments around here. (and that's assuming "league average is a mid 4s era...I don't think that is necessarily the case anymore...which makes him now worse than league average)

    If he had crap stuff, I would be thrilled with "league average". This isn't about him being a former #1 draft pick with me...it's about what I can see that he has in his pitching aresenal, and frustration that he has not, yet, despite now years of opportunity, figured out the mental part of it to be anything more than what he is.

    And, no, I am not okay with what he is at this point as being a piece that this team can win consistently with. They need him (or someone in his spot) to be better than he has been.
    I think that Homer has lapses in games which leads to his inconsistancy. I don't know how you fix that. I don't know how Homer becomes better than what he is. Three home runs in the 1st inning when he had pretty decent stuff just isn't acceptable. Then I just laughed when he had a chance to bunt players to 2nd and 3rd that he hit it in the one spot you couldn't.

    I guess when you look at his peripherals from that game yesterday he was fine. His HR/FB ratio will even out. Hitting doesn't matter for pitchers. ERA isn't a good judge and it will regress to his norm. I do give him credit for hanging in there but it was still the same old same old Homer last night.

  8. #157
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by gilpdawg View Post
    I was going by Hit Tracker's data which stated that Bruce's HR would have only been a HR in 17 out of 30 parks. It was an odd looking trajectory on TV, however, so maybe Hit Tracker was fooled. I was thinking gap shot off the bat, and the sucker just kept going.

    Edited to add-the data from last night is out now. Freese's HR would have been a HR in 2 parks, and Holliday's in only 18. In almost every other park Freese's ball is caught on the track and we are out of the inning. Doesn't mean Homer didn't throw up a stink bomb last night, but it does make one wonder about the luck factor.
    Sorry, but a ball that's a HR in 17 of 30 parks isn't cheap. Heck it's above average.

  9. #158
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Here's what I don't understand. Why all the loyalty to Homer Bailey?

    It's commendable, I'm sure the Homer loyalists are fine people, but there are so many pitchers out there. Yet we wait and wait and wait for Homer to put it together.

    Arroyo is tied to the Reds by his contract, I understand the "loyalty" there.

    But you have to ask the question whether fans are more interested in Homer Bailey's development or in the Reds winning.

    I'm not saying drop Homer this minute, but at some point he needs to go into the bullpen or to another team. At the end of the game they don't count peripherals, they count runs, and he gives up too many of them.

    There are only five spots in a rotation, critical spots on a team. What's the objective here? Winning the pennant or watching Homer grow?

  10. #159
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Here's what I don't understand. Why all the loyalty to Homer Bailey?

    It's commendable, I'm sure the Homer loyalists are fine people, but there are so many pitchers out there. Yet we wait and wait and wait for Homer to put it together.

    Arroyo is tied to the Reds by his contract, I understand the "loyalty" there.

    But you have to ask the question whether fans are more interested in Homer Bailey's development or in the Reds winning.

    I'm not saying drop Homer this minute, but at some point he needs to go into the bullpen or to another team. At the end of the game they don't count peripherals, they count runs, and he gives up too many of them.

    There are only five spots in a rotation, critical spots on a team. What's the objective here? Winning the pennant or watching Homer grow?
    At the end of the day, peripherals win out in 99% of the cases. Homer has the peripherals to suggest he is going to be a good pitcher. Homer Bailey has a chance to be a pitcher that is good enough to help you win a lot of games.

    Sometimes I really hate the start of the baseball season because the overreactions are incredible. A guy has one bad start to begin the year and now, a year after posting a 1.28 WHIP and leading the team in K/BB, a whole bunch of fans want to cut him. Just incredible. (not directed at you KC, just a whole bunch of this thread and well, all over the internet)

  11. #160
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    At the end of the day, peripherals win out in 99% of the cases. Homer has the peripherals to suggest he is going to be a good pitcher. Homer Bailey has a chance to be a pitcher that is good enough to help you win a lot of games.

    Sometimes I really hate the start of the baseball season because the overreactions are incredible. A guy has one bad start to begin the year and now, a year after posting a 1.28 WHIP and leading the team in K/BB, a whole bunch of fans want to cut him. Just incredible. (not directed at you KC, just a whole bunch of this thread and well, all over the internet)
    If peripherals win out 99% of the time wouldn't they just be called stats?

  12. #161
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    At the end of the day, peripherals win out in 99% of the cases. Homer has the peripherals to suggest he is going to be a good pitcher. Homer Bailey has a chance to be a pitcher that is good enough to help you win a lot of games.

    Sometimes I really hate the start of the baseball season because the overreactions are incredible. A guy has one bad start to begin the year and now, a year after posting a 1.28 WHIP and leading the team in K/BB, a whole bunch of fans want to cut him. Just incredible. (not directed at you KC, just a whole bunch of this thread and well, all over the internet)
    uh...I just re-looked at Homer's stats and I have to say, this is not about one bad start, this is about 79 starts ringing of mediocrity. Meanwhile we have a guy in the bullpen that belongs either in the Reds rotation or in AAA in Louisville's rotation. If Homer can't live up to some of the "hype" and his "peripherals" (which I have never seen win ballgames) then it's time for him to put on his big boy pants and learn to enjoy the bullpen. Put up or shut up time for Bailey IMHO and I have been a supporter of his for many years.

    Bum

  13. #162
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    He just needs to flip around the chronology and then it would all be Dusty's fault.
    That's awesome.

    Homer had a poor outing yesterday. Just like Bronson had a poor outing the day before.

    Hopefully both of them will bounce back.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bumstead View Post
    uh...I just re-looked at Homer's stats and I have to say, this is not about one bad start, this is about 79 starts ringing of mediocrity. Meanwhile we have a guy in the bullpen that belongs either in the Reds rotation or in AAA in Louisville's rotation. If Homer can't live up to some of the "hype" and his "peripherals" (which I have never seen win ballgames) then it's time for him to put on his big boy pants and learn to enjoy the bullpen. Put up or shut up time for Bailey IMHO and I have been a supporter of his for many years.

    Bum
    You see peripherals win the ballgame all the time, you just don't pay attention to them being the reason as to why they won.

    Frankly, I could care less about all 79 of Bailey's starts, especially his first 37 that really aren't even close to the last 42.

    As for Chapman, I am with you. But he shouldn't be taking Bailey's spot at any point over the next month until he shows he can actually, you know, start. Which to this point, he hasn't.

  15. #164
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    If peripherals win out 99% of the time wouldn't they just be called stats?
    Peripherals aren't stats?

  16. #165
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Peripherals aren't stats?
    Peripherals are more like excuses to me. They try to explain why something happened or didn't happen. They try to take luck out of the equation. For example when you look at peripherals they would say that Homer's HR/FB ratio is out of whack. What it doesn't say is he left three pitches over the middle of the plate because he was frustrated and they got hammered.

    Homer may have a great year this season, but I doubt it. Lance McAlister's blog he had this posted from Homer

    "The wind blowing out like that, small park its going to happen. After the first, I just tried to get as deep into the game as I could.
    At some point the excuses need to stop and the production needs to begin.


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