Bailey is frustrating. However, the biggest knock against him for this year is spring performance and one start. I was always under the impression we shouldn't read too much into spring performance. Roy Halladay had a noted terrible spring but he came out and got a shutout on the first day. Bailey had a terrible first inning, but wasn't too bad after that last night.
I don't understand the panic button on this. I hope Chapman replaces him, but that's more about Chapman being a possible stud than a knock on Bailey.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
Referring back to the thread title, the FIRST thing that he should do today is go back to using his birth name, "David."
I'll admit that I'm not looking at his stats in-depth and I'm going by my gut here, but I say give him a few more starts and see what happens. If he doesn't improve, move him to the bullpen or see if he can blossom in another city. Maybe he'll pull a "Moyer" for someone.
25-24 with a lifetime ERA of 4.91. Batters have hit .274 against him (.264 last year). Even his best season in 2009, he went 8-5 with an ERA of 4.53. Looking at his splits last year, when Bailey had runners on 1st and 2nd, batters hit .324. On 1st and 3rd, they hit .313. Scoring position? .272.
We've seen brief flashes of greatness over the years. They just get overshadowed by his inconsistency. We've seen 5 years of it...nothing seems to have improved, at least in my eyes. Something's just not clicking for Homer, er "David", in Cincinnati.
"Bring on Rod Stupid!"
Discounting the game yesterday, what would be the over/under on the number of quality starts Homer provides in the next 10 games.
I'll start the bidding at four. Anyone want to go on record and project higher?
His fastball is straight and he can no longer be considered a power pitcher. He was consistently sitting at 91, 92 last night, touching 94 once or twice. He has no idea where his pitches are going right now. This could change, but Homer is giving the appearance of being disinterested.
Its been close to 8 yrs that the Reds drafted Bailey. Plenty of time for him to grow and develop his pitching arsenal. My problem with Bailey is that I just don't see enough growth season to season in his pitches and approach which leads me to feel he has reached his peak with the Reds. It may be time to look at a change of scenery deal for Bailey maybe a Hughes for Homer swap with the Yanks.
If you have a losing record at Reds games, please stop going.
But I will answer regardless. Last year Bailey put up a quality start in 13 of 22 starts. So being an odds man, I will take the over on your projection of 4 QS in his next 10 starts.
Yep, I predict 6-7 quality starts over his next 10.