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Thread: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

  1. #166
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bumstead View Post
    If Homer can't live up to some of the "hype" and his "peripherals" (which I have never seen win ballgames
    You've never seen a strikeout, walk or home run win a baseball game?

    I see.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

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  3. #167
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    Bailey in 2011:

    132 IP

    1.28 WHIP
    7.2 K/9
    2.2 BB/9
    1.2 HR/9

    Give me 200+ innings of this (for $2.5MM) and Id take it every day from my 26-year old #4/#5.

    The key to Bailey is him staying healthy. If he does, hes a valuable asset to the rotation.

    As for last night, I think the homeplate umpire (Buckner?.....dude is terrible) squeezed him a few times. I was happy that Bailey stayed somewhat composed at such a tiny/inconsistent strike zone. I would have snapped.

    With all this said, I CAN understand the frustration some have with Bailey. This is his ninth year in the organization and he still has not seemed to put it all together. I have faith he will stay healthy this year and give us solid production out of the back of the rotation. IF he can stay healthy (and get to 200 IP this year), with his peripherals, hell be a very rich man come 2013 and beyond.
    Thank you for this post. I certainly understand the frustration, and I also understand the preference of having Chapman in the rotation. However, at the end of the day, Bailey is still a pretty good pitcher. Not a great pitcher -- not even one that has lived up to his expectations -- but still better than many teams have as a debated fourth or fifth starter.

    Bailey is frustrating. However, the biggest knock against him for this year is spring performance and one start. I was always under the impression we shouldn't read too much into spring performance. Roy Halladay had a noted terrible spring but he came out and got a shutout on the first day. Bailey had a terrible first inning, but wasn't too bad after that last night.

    I don't understand the panic button on this. I hope Chapman replaces him, but that's more about Chapman being a possible stud than a knock on Bailey.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  4. #168
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    If peripherals win out 99% of the time wouldn't they just be called stats?
    I typically find the peripherals listed on the "stats" page.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  5. #169
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    I typically find the peripherals listed on the "stats" page.
    I often find them on the "excuse" page followed by a but, if/then, because, normalization, etc.

  6. #170
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    You see peripherals win the ballgame all the time, you just don't pay attention to them being the reason as to why they won.

    Frankly, I could care less about all 79 of Bailey's starts, especially his first 37 that really aren't even close to the last 42.

    As for Chapman, I am with you. But he shouldn't be taking Bailey's spot at any point over the next month until he shows he can actually, you know, start. Which to this point, he hasn't.
    He can't show he can, you know, start, from the bullpen, can he? I'm just saying Bailey needs to start living up to his billing or he will be gone regardless of his peripherals and hype. His gap for "getting a pass" is closing quickly. I was thinking that the object of this season was to win games and compete for the division title, not sit around and watch Bailey and Arroyo pitch like they have for quite some time...

    Bum

  7. #171
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Referring back to the thread title, the FIRST thing that he should do today is go back to using his birth name, "David."

    I'll admit that I'm not looking at his stats in-depth and I'm going by my gut here, but I say give him a few more starts and see what happens. If he doesn't improve, move him to the bullpen or see if he can blossom in another city. Maybe he'll pull a "Moyer" for someone.

    25-24 with a lifetime ERA of 4.91. Batters have hit .274 against him (.264 last year). Even his best season in 2009, he went 8-5 with an ERA of 4.53. Looking at his splits last year, when Bailey had runners on 1st and 2nd, batters hit .324. On 1st and 3rd, they hit .313. Scoring position? .272.

    We've seen brief flashes of greatness over the years. They just get overshadowed by his inconsistency. We've seen 5 years of it...nothing seems to have improved, at least in my eyes. Something's just not clicking for Homer, er "David", in Cincinnati.

  8. #172
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    You've never seen a strikeout, walk or home run win a baseball game?

    I see.
    Wow, thanks for raining the "knowledge." I will put this little nugget right there with all the other smart alec retorts from everyone's favorite poster. Your contribution was masterful as always!

    Bum

  9. #173
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    I often find them on the "excuse" page followed by a but, if/then, because, normalization, etc.
    Which one is the "rolling eyes" emoticon?
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  10. #174
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bumstead View Post
    Wow, thanks for raining the "knowledge." I will put this little nugget right there with all the other smart alec retorts from everyone's favorite poster. Your contribution was masterful as always!

    Bum
    Likewise.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  11. #175
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by nate View Post
    Which one is the "rolling eyes" emoticon?
    Actually Homer does that quite a bit when he leaves 3 fat ones over the middle of the plate.

    Are those the same peripherals that said Matt Belisle was going to be a good starter? Or the same ones that said Edinson Volquez was worth the trouble?

  12. #176
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Actually Homer does that quite a bit when he leaves 3 fat ones over the middle of the plate.

    Are those the same peripherals that said Matt Belisle was going to be a good starter? Or the same ones that said Edinson Volquez was worth the trouble?
    Well, some of these peripherals show Homer's last start in a worse light than ERA does.

    Matt Belisle has actually turned into a pretty good pitcher.

    Volquez' peripherals are pretty much in line with his ERA (if that's your reference.)
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  13. #177
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Discounting the game yesterday, what would be the over/under on the number of quality starts Homer provides in the next 10 games.

    I'll start the bidding at four. Anyone want to go on record and project higher?

    His fastball is straight and he can no longer be considered a power pitcher. He was consistently sitting at 91, 92 last night, touching 94 once or twice. He has no idea where his pitches are going right now. This could change, but Homer is giving the appearance of being disinterested.

  14. #178
    Kmac5 KoryMac5's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Its been close to 8 yrs that the Reds drafted Bailey. Plenty of time for him to grow and develop his pitching arsenal. My problem with Bailey is that I just don't see enough growth season to season in his pitches and approach which leads me to feel he has reached his peak with the Reds. It may be time to look at a change of scenery deal for Bailey maybe a Hughes for Homer swap with the Yanks.
    If you have a losing record at Reds games, please stop going.

  15. #179
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by GoReds View Post
    Discounting the game yesterday, what would be the over/under on the number of quality starts Homer provides in the next 10 games.

    I'll start the bidding at four. Anyone want to go on record and project higher?

    His fastball is straight and he can no longer be considered a power pitcher. He was consistently sitting at 91, 92 last night, touching 94 once or twice. He has no idea where his pitches are going right now. This could change, but Homer is giving the appearance of being disinterested.
    We can guess to your question but it really is too small of a sample if you are looking for "bragging rights".

    But I will answer regardless. Last year Bailey put up a quality start in 13 of 22 starts. So being an odds man, I will take the over on your projection of 4 QS in his next 10 starts.

  16. #180
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Yep, I predict 6-7 quality starts over his next 10.


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