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Thread: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

  1. #181
    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Here's one way of looking at it for me. If the Reds picked up Bailey in an acquisition, he would be looked at as "maybe we can catch lightning in a bottle, but..."

    He certainly wouldn't be someone that RZ fans would scour the rosters and target for the infamous traderumors, other than "pick up an underachiever on the cheap" type of talk. Where the Votto draft posts obviously missed the boat, the Bailey draft talk was spot on. The one I remember the most was that "Bailey might end up succeeding in his career, but probably not for the team that drafted him." And I don't think that is anyone's fault AFTER he was picked, just the nature of the HS power pitcher draft pick.
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  3. #182
    On the brink wolfboy's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    Thank you for this post. I certainly understand the frustration, and I also understand the preference of having Chapman in the rotation. However, at the end of the day, Bailey is still a pretty good pitcher. Not a great pitcher -- not even one that has lived up to his expectations -- but still better than many teams have as a debated fourth or fifth starter.

    Bailey is frustrating. However, the biggest knock against him for this year is spring performance and one start. I was always under the impression we shouldn't read too much into spring performance. Roy Halladay had a noted terrible spring but he came out and got a shutout on the first day. Bailey had a terrible first inning, but wasn't too bad after that last night.

    I don't understand the panic button on this. I hope Chapman replaces him, but that's more about Chapman being a possible stud than a knock on Bailey.
    I hope Chapman eventually works his way into the lineup, but I doubt it will be at the expense of Bailey. It's Arroyo that I worry about.

    Bailey is cheap, decent (with a chance to be great), and the team isn't relying on him to anchor the rotation. I guess I don't see the issue here.
    How do we know he's not Mel Torme?

  4. #183
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    I often find them on the "excuse" page followed by a but, if/then, because, normalization, etc.
    Peripherals are things that have happened.

  5. #184
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    At the end of the day, peripherals win out in 99% of the cases. Homer has the peripherals to suggest he is going to be a good pitcher. Homer Bailey has a chance to be a pitcher that is good enough to help you win a lot of games.

    )
    Are you saying that peripherals correctly predict a pitchers future ERA 99% of the time? It only misses in one of every one hundred pitchers? I find that very hard to believe.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  6. #185
    Resident optimist OldRightHander's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Is it kind of weird that the advertising I'm seeing on this page right now is for products to get rid of odors?
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  7. #186
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    I'll take the under on 4 QS in his next 10 starts, largely because I'm not sure he's going to get more than a handful of starts the way he's been pitching in 2012. My expectation is that if he continues to struggle (and he's shown no signs that he won't) Bailey will be put the on DL and placed on a strengthening program for his shoulder muscles.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  8. #187
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'll take the under on 4 QS in his next 10 starts, largely because I'm not sure he's going to get more than a handful of starts the way he's been pitching in 2012. My expectation is that if he continues to struggle (and he's shown no signs that he won't) Bailey will be put the on DL and placed on a strengthening program for his shoulder muscles.
    My only prediction is that when Masset comes back, if the Reds aren't winning the division, they will find a way to get Chapman into the rotation.

    I know many of you think this requires a trip by Aroldis to the minor leagues. I'm not sure I agree.

    But either way, I think Walt understands that to win pennants you need a superior rotation. Chapman has the ability to give them a superior rotation.

    Whether it is Arroyo who would depart (contract still an issue) or Bailey or somebody else, I don't know. But Bailey is a candidate.

  9. #188
    Member Captain Hook's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'll take the under on 4 QS in his next 10 starts, largely because I'm not sure he's going to get more than a handful of starts the way he's been pitching in 2012. My expectation is that if he continues to struggle (and he's shown no signs that he won't) Bailey will be put the on DL and placed on a strengthening program for his shoulder muscles.
    So far he's had one bad inning in 2012.

  10. #189
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Hook View Post
    So far he's had one bad inning in 2012.
    Well to be fair, from everything I heard he appeared to be very poor in spring training (not based on stats, he apparently just looked weak and ineffective), so it could be that he's not quite right.

  11. #190
    On the brink wolfboy's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Paul Daugherty now weighs in with his reasoned expert analysis:

    http://cincinnati.com/blogs/daughert...ning-line-410/

    It looks like the Enquirer is really playing this up as Chapman v. Bailey. Again, why Bailey and not Arroyo? I didn't see the Enquirer calling for his head when he gave up 5 runs on Sunday. In fact, I read several accounts of how he "looked good." If we're really "all in" this year, why isn't Arroyo on a short leash?
    How do we know he's not Mel Torme?

  12. #191
    Member Captain Hook's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    Well to be fair, from everything I heard he appeared to be very poor in spring training (not based on stats, he apparently just looked weak and ineffective), so it could be that he's not quite right.
    I hear the same as far as how Bailey pitched in ST but those games count for nothing.He wasn't the only guy in a Reds uniform last night that had a difficult time and he actually got his act together after a difficult start unlike like most of the guys trying to provide offense.By the way, those other guys were going against a lesser pitcher when compared to Homer so what's their excuse?I'm willing to give Bailey a few more starts before giving up on him.

  13. #192
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Hook View Post
    I hear the same as far as how Bailey pitched in ST but those games count for nothing.He wasn't the only guy in a Reds uniform last night that had a difficult time and he actually got his act together after a difficult start unlike like most of the guys trying to provide offense.By the way, those other guys were going against a lesser pitcher when compared to Homer so what's their excuse?I'm willing to give Bailey a few more starts before giving up on him.
    I think if you actually looked at the numbers that Jake Westbrook's career numbers compare favorably to Bailey's. Just sayin.' I would rather have Bailey at this point but what you said is in fact wrong.

    At some point Bailey has to show that he is as good as his defenders say he is. We are trying to win the division, sometimes good players ride the pine in those situations. Bailey may find this out sooner rather than later.

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  14. #193
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    Well to be fair, from everything I heard he appeared to be very poor in spring training (not based on stats, he apparently just looked weak and ineffective), so it could be that he's not quite right.
    Exactly. Bailey's a stuff pitcher and his stuff isn't there.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  15. #194
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    Quote Originally Posted by wolfboy View Post
    Paul Daugherty now weighs in with his reasoned expert analysis:

    http://cincinnati.com/blogs/daughert...ning-line-410/

    It looks like the Enquirer is really playing this up as Chapman v. Bailey. Again, why Bailey and not Arroyo? I didn't see the Enquirer calling for his head when he gave up 5 runs on Sunday. In fact, I read several accounts of how he "looked good." If we're really "all in" this year, why isn't Arroyo on a short leash?
    Because Arroyo has a track record of being a much better pitcher than Bailey.

    It's fine to argue that you expect Bailey to be better moving forward, but Bailey's doing nothing to aid people who want to make that argument. Based on their first starts of the season, the guy who limited BBs and HRs was Arroyo. Bailey was wild and got hit hard.
    Last edited by M2; 04-10-2012 at 01:28 PM.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  16. #195
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Homer Bailey - what to do with him?

    There were a ton of discussions last year around why Travis Wood needed to be in the rotation over Mike Leake and I am sure there were tons of stats to back it up.

    I have patience on this one.


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