Cousin Sal, of the Jimmy Kimmel Show and Bill Simmons' podcast fame, has just released his MLB gambling column on Grantland.
His cover boy is none other than Jay Bruce. Apparently the odds on Bruce taking home the NL HR title are 20 to 1. If that's true, you have the like those odds.
Bruce finished 8th in the NL last year with 32. 2 of the 7 guys ahead of him are in the AL this year (Fielder, Pujols) and 1 is injured (Howard). That leaves Kemp, Uggla, Stanton and Braun. Close behind him last year you had Justin Upton and Michael Morse. I'd personally have Stanton, Bruce and Upton on my short list -- they seem the most likely to push 40 HR.