Jay Bruce to win the NL HR title?

[RedsManRick]

Cousin Sal, of the Jimmy Kimmel Show and Bill Simmons' podcast fame, has just released his MLB gambling column on Grantland.

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-tr...og-mlb-edition

His cover boy is none other than Jay Bruce. Apparently the odds on Bruce taking home the NL HR title are 20 to 1. If that's true, you have the like those odds.

Bruce finished 8th in the NL last year with 32. 2 of the 7 guys ahead of him are in the AL this year (Fielder, Pujols) and 1 is injured (Howard). That leaves Kemp, Uggla, Stanton and Braun. Close behind him last year you had Justin Upton and Michael Morse. I'd personally have Stanton, Bruce and Upton on my short list -- they seem the most likely to push 40 HR.

[klw]

Well Bruce is currently tied for the NL lead and is only 1 behind the MLB lead.

[Ghosts of 1990]

30/1 odds here

http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betti...ayer-props.jsp

I don't think he hits more than 35

[RedlegJake]

If I was betting over/under on 35 homers for Jay in Vegas I'd take over this season. Honestly I'd hesitate but I'd put the money on the over side if I had to make the bet. If the number was 40 hey I'd take the under but I'd hope to lose anyway.

[membengal]

Worth a flier, but hard to look past anyone but Stanton in Miami.

[dougdirt]

Worth a flier, but hard to look past anyone but Stanton in Miami.

It will be interesting to see how that park plays. He has the power to hit them out of anywhere, but even someone like him can gain or lose 5 home runs depending on how that place plays.

[MikeS21]

If Bruce hits 35-40 HR's, the Reds need to extend him like they did Votto!

[gonelong]

Saw something recently on the projections for which players would add significant numbers this year. IIRC, Bruce was top of the list for NL HRs and #2 or #3 in RBI.

GL

[MikeS21]

I do seriously wonder sometimes. For all the attention and talent that Votto has, does Jay Bruce have the talent and potential to surpass even Votto? I keep thinking about the fact that Bruce only turned 25 years old yesterday. JB seems like he has been around forever, but the scary truth is, he's not even hit his stride yet. How good will Bruce be when he hits Votto's age?

[RedsManRick]

Votto/Bruce reminds me a lot of Dunn/Kearns. The complete hitter vs. the power bat. The first round pick vs. the second round pick. Hopefully this time both guys pan out. Jay better avoid fat relief pitchers covering home plate.

[Ghosts of 1990]

I do seriously wonder sometimes. For all the attention and talent that Votto has, does Jay Bruce have the talent and potential to surpass even Votto? I keep thinking about the fact that Bruce only turned 25 years old yesterday. JB seems like he has been around forever, but the scary truth is, he's not even hit his stride yet. How good will Bruce be when he hits Votto's age?

I think it's a matter of approach rather than age. Votto is just something other worldly in that department that Jay will never have. He'll never be able to toy with a pitcher and foul off pitches again and again until he gets something over the middle he drives out; at least not to the degree that Votto can do it when he needs to and wants to and every now and then Jay has a great at bat or when he's really going good he strings together a few great at-bats.

Votto/Bruce reminds me a lot of Dunn/Kearns. The complete hitter vs. the power bat. The first round pick vs. the second round pick. Hopefully this time both guys pan out. Jay better avoid fat relief pitchers covering home plate.

I get what you're saying. But Bruce is already probably one of the top 50 all around players in the game. We're in a better situation now, because both of these guys are better than both of those guys were. But I get what you're saying.

[OnBaseMachine]

David Laurila predicts Jay Bruce to win the 2012 NL MVP.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...predicts-2012/

[MikeS21]

I think it's a matter of approach rather than age. Votto is just something other worldly in that department that Jay will never have. He'll never be able to toy with a pitcher and foul off pitches again and again until he gets something over the middle he drives out; at least not to the degree that Votto can do it when he needs to and wants to and every now and then Jay has a great at bat or when he's really going good he strings together a few great at-bats.

Right now, I'd agree with you. But Bruce's approach has improved since he came up, and as he continues to improve, it's hard to project where he might be 2-3 years down the road. He still has some room to grow.

I see the same poor AB's from JB that you do. At times he simply looks overmatched and doesn't know which end of the bat he's swinging from. That's when I am reminded that we're not talking about a 28 year old in his prime. The kid just has turned 25. And to be 100% fair, at times Joey Votto looks lost at the plate. It will be interesting in a couple years when Bruce has peaked. And it will be fun to have Votto and Bruce both in their prime.

RedsManRick probably nailed it when he compared them to Dunn and Kearns. They are two different animals.

[Roy Tucker]

I think Votto is a bit of an overachiever. One of his strong points is his mental discipline. He just never takes ABs off. He concentrates on each and every pitch. When he looks lost, its only for a pitch or two. He has great talent but his approach is what takes him to MVP-level.

Bruce is a little bit more of a natural and relies more on his hands and his eyes. Don't get me wrong, he works hard, but his approach can wander a bit.

[RedsManRick]

I get what you're saying. But Bruce is already probably one of the top 50 all around players in the game. We're in a better situation now, because both of these guys are better than both of those guys were. But I get what you're saying.

I know you didn't mean your comment this way, but last year Bruce was tied with Emilio Bonifacio for 107th in WAR among position players. Across 2010 & 2011, he comes in 52nd. I think it's fair to say that, in broad strokes, Bruce has not yet lived up to the hype he came up with. There certainly probably aren't 50 players I'd take ahead of him if I were drafting a team from scratch, but whether or not he reaches his significant potential remains to be seen.