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Thread: Is Cueto really an ace?

  1. #61
    Maple SERP savafan's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I tend to think that those obsessed with real time results actually fail to appreciate a majority of what happens in the game.
    Nah, there's very little I enjoy more than this game.
    My dad got to enjoy 3 Reds World Championships by the time he was my age. So far, I've only gotten to enjoy one. Step it up Redlegs!

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  3. #62
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by savafan View Post
    Sure, but I keep seeing the same people say over and over that Cueto can't sustain his success, while he actually has been doing a pretty good job of sustaining it thus far. The same people have tried hammering into my head that Homer Bailey's peripherals show him to be on the verge of high sustainability of considerable major league success, while he's never come close to putting it all together. I just feel that 10, 15, 20 years down the road, if Homer continues to fail and never comes close to what they envision him to be, they still won't believe that he was a bad starting pitcher, while if Cueto somehow manages to rein in a Cy Young or two, they'll just say that he's lucky and truly a middle of the pack starting pitcher.
    I hear ya. But you can pull hypotheticals like that out of your pocket all day. It is really hard to know what will happen 10 or 15 years down the road (except for that Joey Votto will likely still be on the Reds).

    If you see this type of analysis as a buzz kill, I guess I understand where you are coming from. But don't put words in people's mouths either. No one is saying Cueto is a bad pitcher or that they wouldn't be happy if he does well. Fact is, Cueto really hasn't been sustaining anything like elite results for very long, and his 2.31 ERA last year really should have been something more like a 3.50 ERA.

    Just like you, we're all hoping like the dickens that he can take the next real step to being a stud starting pitcher. But we're managing our expectations with numbers. Consider these projections the most hopeful ones possible.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  4. #63
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by savafan View Post
    Sure, but I keep seeing the same people say over and over that Cueto can't sustain his success, while he actually has been doing a pretty good job of sustaining it thus far. The same people have tried hammering into my head that Homer Bailey's peripherals show him to be on the verge of high sustainability of considerable major league success, while he's never come close to putting it all together. I just feel that 10, 15, 20 years down the road, if Homer continues to fail and never comes close to what they envision him to be, they still won't believe that he was a bad starting pitcher, while if Cueto somehow manages to rein in a Cy Young or two, they'll just say that he's lucky and truly a middle of the pack starting pitcher.
    Sustaining it thus far? You mean one non-full season and then one start the next season?

  5. #64
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by savafan View Post
    I honestly have to wonder if some peoples' obsession with number crunching every stat ruins the enjoyment of the game for them.

    Real time results are what matter, not the potential of sustaining them in the future at this present time. Right now, Cueto is pitching with Ace-like results. Enjoy that!
    Why do we have to treat enjoying the real time results like they're the same thing as trying to accurately assess what the most likely future results are?

    I was one of Adam Dunn's biggest defenders from a value/production standpoint; I hated watching him hit.

    Cueto had a great game today and I thoroughly enjoyed it. Believing that his skill set suggests he's likely to pitch like a #3 starter over the course of the season and not like an ace does not detract from that in any way. If anything, it makes games like this all the more enjoyable. When your expectations are more in with what actually ends up happening, you get disappointed less often and pleasantly surprised more often.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #65
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    When your expectations are more in with what actually ends up happening, you get disappointed less often and pleasantly surprised more often.
    Exactly. Managing expectations with numbers. It's therapeutic!
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  7. #66
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Who routinely does that?
    We don't know, because so far, we have not been tracking weakly hit ground balls.

    Right now, we track ground balls, which are defined as any hit ball that touches the ground before it touches a fielders mitt; flyballs and line drives, which are defined by the trajectory of the ball. These definitions tells us very little about how hard a ball was hit.

    Many ground balls are hit harder than flyballs, and even line drives. Even many infield popups are very hard hit, basically homers that are just missed. So, just by looking at a pitcher's GB/FB/LD lines, we cannot with any accuracy tell how hard his pitches are being hit.

    Now there has been a bit of research been done on the velocity of ball as it leaves the bat, but not enough to be able to draw any real conclusions. I do think that when that technology becomes more accessible, and more data like that accumulates, we will learn much more about pitching than we currently do.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  8. #67
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    We don't know, because so far, we have not been tracking weakly hit ground balls.

    Right now, we track ground balls, which are defined as any hit ball that touches the ground before it touches a fielders mitt; flyballs and line drives, which are defined by the trajectory of the ball. These definitions tells us very little about how hard a ball was hit.

    Many ground balls are hit harder than flyballs, and even line drives. Even many infield popups are very hard hit, basically homers that are just missed. So, just by looking at a pitcher's GB/FB/LD lines, we cannot with any accuracy tell how hard his pitches are being hit.

    Now there has been a bit of research been done on the velocity of ball as it leaves the bat, but not enough to be able to draw any real conclusions. I do think that when that technology becomes more accessible, and more data like that accumulates, we will learn much more about pitching than we currently do.
    Essentially you are suggesting that Johnny Cueto is somehow better at inducing weak groundballs than just about any pitcher in the last 30 years. Cueto has benefited from some good infield defense behind him and plenty of luck in the last 160 innings he has thrown.

  9. #68
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    I do agree with what a few others have said - Cueto can get the strikeout when he needs it. Today was a good example. Three of his final four outs were via the strikeout. It seemed like he was reaching back for more because he knew his day was nearing an end at that point. His stuff is still filthy. I love watching him pitch.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  10. #69
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Essentially you are suggesting that Johnny Cueto is somehow better at inducing weak groundballs than just about any pitcher in the last 30 years. Cueto has benefited from some good infield defense behind him and plenty of luck in the last 160 innings he has thrown.
    With that post, I wasn't suggesting anything other than we don't know who induces weak contact, at least not yet.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  11. #70
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Cueto's K/9 will tick up this year -- if for no other reason than he's developing a reputation as a tough pitcher to score on and hitters will start to press more against him.

    Strikeouts are something of a self-fulfilling prophecy in that regard.
    Championships Matter.
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  12. #71
    Attack Cat! OUReds's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    With that post, I wasn't suggesting anything other than we don't know who induces weak contact, at least not yet.
    What rudimentary numbers we do have certainly suggest he is inducing weak contact. His LD%, GB%, and HR/FB were all top 10ish in baseball last year among starters, and those numbers have more or less improved each year (as his k/9 has decreased). He was certainly lucky last year, but I'm not willing to chalk it all up to luck.

  13. #72
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by WebScorpion View Post
    Conversely, it's generally tougher to pitch deep into a game when you are striking out batters rather than getting quick ground outs and popouts.
    Yes, give me a pitcher that can induce weak contact and control BABIP anyday.....

    Of course, that pitcher does not exist.....

  14. #73
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    With that post, I wasn't suggesting anything other than we don't know who induces weak contact, at least not yet.
    I'll answer that for you, no one induces weak contact......

  15. #74
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    I'll answer that for you, no one induces weak contact......
    How do we know? We have nothing that measures it. At least not yet.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  16. #75
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    It is kind of counter-intuitive to say no pitcher exists that induces weak contact.

    We know that pitchers do control the type of contact... i.e. ground ball, fly ball, etc. So why couldn't they also control, to some degree, the degree of contact? Part of being a ground ball or fly ball pitcher is having a heavy ball; location; velocity; movement... all those things. It sort of is contradictory to suggest those things can't also control how hard contact is made.

    It goes without saying that if I throw a ball straight as an arrow, a hitter is likelier to be able to hit the ball square on the fat portion of the bat. However, if I have a lot of movement, more hitters are going to be slightly fooled and are not going to hit the ball as hard. That's already known to be common sense because it's the reason we see certain guys induce more grounders. I see no reason why we won't eventually find it within how hard balls are hit too.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda


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