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Thread: Is Cueto really an ace?

  1. #76
    Member Captain Hook's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    How do we know? We have nothing that measures it. At least not yet.
    The pitcher that doesn't strikeout a lot of batters, doesn't walk a lot either, maintains a low era, wins a bunch of games and wears a red cap with a big C on would likely be king of any such stat.

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  3. #77
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    It is kind of counter-intuitive to say no pitcher exists that induces weak contact.

    We know that pitchers do control the type of contact... i.e. ground ball, fly ball, etc. So why couldn't they also control, to some degree, the degree of contact? Part of being a ground ball or fly ball pitcher is having a heavy ball; location; velocity; movement... all those things. It sort of is contradictory to suggest those things can't also control how hard contact is made.

    It goes without saying that if I throw a ball straight as an arrow, a hitter is likelier to be able to hit the ball square on the fat portion of the bat. However, if I have a lot of movement, more hitters are going to be slightly fooled and are not going to hit the ball as hard. That's already known to be common sense because it's the reason we see certain guys induce more grounders. I see no reason why we won't eventually find it within how hard balls are hit too.
    See Halladay, Roy.
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  4. #78
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Of course, that pitcher does not exist.....
    A great sinkerball pitcher (like a Brandon Webb in his prime) can control BABIP to a certain extent. Webb spent the majority of his career with a BABIP in the .280s.

    Greg Maddux spent five years during the prime of his career living under .274 for BABIP.
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    It's very intuitive to say very few pitchers have existed that induce weak contact to a great enough magnitude for it to be measureable with BABIP.

    To the extent that pitchers effect the speed of a batted ball, it's too small of an effect on outcome for people to conclude Cueto's BABIP last season was due to such an influence more so than it was due to randomness.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  6. #80
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    It's very intuitive to say very few pitchers have existed that induce weak contact to a great enough magnitude for it to be measureable with BABIP.
    Ok, but the statement was that pitchers who can influence BABIP "don't exist" -- I'll give you that it's less the rule and more the exception, though.
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    Ok, but the statement was that pitchers who can influence BABIP "don't exist" -- I'll give you that it's less the rule and more the exception, though.
    DIPS theory doesn't argue that those pitchers don't exist BTW.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  8. #82
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Fact is, Cueto really hasn't been sustaining anything like elite results for very long, and his 2.31 ERA last year really should have been something more like a 3.50 ERA.
    Sure, but that would have been another definitive step forward for him, even in a year where he lost time to injury.

    He's 26 and indisputably on the right arc in terms of performance. "Ace" is a loaded term, but if he can deliver 200 innings in 2012, I don't think there's much question that he'll be a major asset. For instance, I doubt anyone would be shocked by a 200 IP/1.20 WHIP/3.25 ERA sort of season from Cueto. And that's generally where his progression is taking him.
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Sure, but that would have been another definitive step forward for him, even in a year where he lost time to injury.

    He's 26 and indisputably on the right arc in terms of performance. "Ace" is a loaded term, but if he can deliver 200 innings in 2012, I don't think there's much question that he'll be a major asset. For instance, I doubt anyone would be shocked by a 200 IP/1.20 WHIP/3.25 ERA sort of season from Cueto. And that's generally where his progression is taking him.
    To me it's difficult to qualify Cueto as anything other than a homerun for the Reds. He's a homegrown starting pitcher that has logged almost 800 above average innings in their rotation as a major leaguer posting about 8.5 WAR at the cost of chicken feed. Any actual step forward he takes in true talent is gravy at this point. Absent an injury, he's all but certain to at least be worth what they're paying him for his extension and if his arm fell off in his next start and he never pitched another inning for them, he's still provided surplus value as a Red relative to what the organization would ulitmately have to pay him.

    It's all gravy and it still might be some cavier.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  10. #84
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    A great sinkerball pitcher (like a Brandon Webb in his prime) can control BABIP to a certain extent. Webb spent the majority of his career with a BABIP in the .280s.

    Greg Maddux spent five years during the prime of his career living under .274 for BABIP.
    What those two had, and what Halladay has, is extreme movement on their pitches. It's not that they induce hitters to swing meekly, but hitters have a harder time centering the ball on the sweet spot of the bat.

    As it turns out, Cueto's pitches have a ton of movement in every area of the strikezone (e.g. he's not just a down-and-away guy). And, IMO, the long-term value of that ability isn't in influencing BABIP, but in cutting down your opponents' SLG. What really stood out about Cueto in 2011 was the way he limited XBH. If he continues that, then he's going to be mighty effective out on the mound.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  11. #85
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    I think the most interesting thing about Cueto in 2011 is his batted ball tendencies were dramatically different than previous years. A Cueto who is in the NL top ten of GB inducers is a starting arm in a different class than "neutral-to-FB" Cueto.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  12. #86
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    It's very intuitive to say very few pitchers have existed that induce weak contact to a great enough magnitude for it to be measureable with BABIP.

    To the extent that pitchers effect the speed of a batted ball, it's too small of an effect on outcome for people to conclude Cueto's BABIP last season was due to such an influence more so than it was due to randomness.
    Again, we don't know how much pitchers effect the speed of the batted ball, because there hasn't been enough research done on it yet. At least not that I am aware of. If you know of any data on this, please share it, and I mean that sincerely.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  13. #87
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Again, we don't know how much pitchers effect the speed of the batted ball, because there hasn't been enough research done on it yet. At least not that I am aware of. If you know of any data on this, please share it, and I mean that sincerely.
    We know that the velocity of a batted ball can effect the outcome of a batted ball, and we certainly can suppose a pitcher may be able to influence the outtcome of a batted ball with one of his pitches from work that guys like Fast, Kalk etc have done. But what we know for certain is that very few pitchers historically have lower than expected BABIP. That's a large regression elephant to have to step around when one wants to argue a narrative that pitchers command contact quality.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  14. #88
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    What those two had, and what Halladay has, is extreme movement on their pitches. It's not that they induce hitters to swing meekly, but hitters have a harder time centering the ball on the sweet spot of the bat.
    Maddux, Webb, and Halladay also tended to put up K/9 over or near 7 in their most dominant years.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    Maddux, Webb, and Halladay also tended to put up K/9 over or near 7 in their most dominant years.
    Webb has both above average K rates and walkk rates while being an extreme groundball pitcher. He is just a few strikeouts away from being the "ideal pitcher". Maddux literally bludgoned hitters with his command while inducing groundballs. Halladay is Maddux with more Ks and if you can believe it, even better command. These guys are hall of fame caliber exceptions.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  16. #90
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Webb has both above average K rates and walkk rates while being an extreme groundball pitcher. He is just a few strikeouts away from being the "ideal pitcher". Maddux literally bludgoned hitters with his command while inducing groundballs. Halladay is Maddux with more Ks and if you can believe it, even better command. These guys are hall of fame caliber exceptions.
    In other words, "aces."
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful


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