The pitcher that doesn't strikeout a lot of batters, doesn't walk a lot either, maintains a low era, wins a bunch of games and wears a red cap with a big C on would likely be king of any such stat.Originally Posted by 757690
The pitcher that doesn't strikeout a lot of batters, doesn't walk a lot either, maintains a low era, wins a bunch of games and wears a red cap with a big C on would likely be king of any such stat.
See Halladay, Roy.
"I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski
A great sinkerball pitcher (like a Brandon Webb in his prime) can control BABIP to a certain extent. Webb spent the majority of his career with a BABIP in the .280s.
Greg Maddux spent five years during the prime of his career living under .274 for BABIP.
Cincinnati Reds: Farm System Champions 2022
It's very intuitive to say very few pitchers have existed that induce weak contact to a great enough magnitude for it to be measureable with BABIP.
To the extent that pitchers effect the speed of a batted ball, it's too small of an effect on outcome for people to conclude Cueto's BABIP last season was due to such an influence more so than it was due to randomness.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Ok, but the statement was that pitchers who can influence BABIP "don't exist" -- I'll give you that it's less the rule and more the exception, though.
Cincinnati Reds: Farm System Champions 2022
DIPS theory doesn't argue that those pitchers don't exist BTW.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Sure, but that would have been another definitive step forward for him, even in a year where he lost time to injury.
He's 26 and indisputably on the right arc in terms of performance. "Ace" is a loaded term, but if he can deliver 200 innings in 2012, I don't think there's much question that he'll be a major asset. For instance, I doubt anyone would be shocked by a 200 IP/1.20 WHIP/3.25 ERA sort of season from Cueto. And that's generally where his progression is taking him.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
To me it's difficult to qualify Cueto as anything other than a homerun for the Reds. He's a homegrown starting pitcher that has logged almost 800 above average innings in their rotation as a major leaguer posting about 8.5 WAR at the cost of chicken feed. Any actual step forward he takes in true talent is gravy at this point. Absent an injury, he's all but certain to at least be worth what they're paying him for his extension and if his arm fell off in his next start and he never pitched another inning for them, he's still provided surplus value as a Red relative to what the organization would ulitmately have to pay him.
It's all gravy and it still might be some cavier.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
What those two had, and what Halladay has, is extreme movement on their pitches. It's not that they induce hitters to swing meekly, but hitters have a harder time centering the ball on the sweet spot of the bat.
As it turns out, Cueto's pitches have a ton of movement in every area of the strikezone (e.g. he's not just a down-and-away guy). And, IMO, the long-term value of that ability isn't in influencing BABIP, but in cutting down your opponents' SLG. What really stood out about Cueto in 2011 was the way he limited XBH. If he continues that, then he's going to be mighty effective out on the mound.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
I think the most interesting thing about Cueto in 2011 is his batted ball tendencies were dramatically different than previous years. A Cueto who is in the NL top ten of GB inducers is a starting arm in a different class than "neutral-to-FB" Cueto.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Again, we don't know how much pitchers effect the speed of the batted ball, because there hasn't been enough research done on it yet. At least not that I am aware of. If you know of any data on this, please share it, and I mean that sincerely.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
We know that the velocity of a batted ball can effect the outcome of a batted ball, and we certainly can suppose a pitcher may be able to influence the outtcome of a batted ball with one of his pitches from work that guys like Fast, Kalk etc have done. But what we know for certain is that very few pitchers historically have lower than expected BABIP. That's a large regression elephant to have to step around when one wants to argue a narrative that pitchers command contact quality.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Maddux, Webb, and Halladay also tended to put up K/9 over or near 7 in their most dominant years.
"I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful
Webb has both above average K rates and walkk rates while being an extreme groundball pitcher. He is just a few strikeouts away from being the "ideal pitcher". Maddux literally bludgoned hitters with his command while inducing groundballs. Halladay is Maddux with more Ks and if you can believe it, even better command. These guys are hall of fame caliber exceptions.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
In other words, "aces."
"I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful
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