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Thread: Is Cueto really an ace?

  1. #106
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    But that is not the same as saying that they have little control over their SLG.

    And this is the only way I can think of in which their BABIP correlates to their SLG.
    Hits correlate with slugging. The higher the BABIP, the higher the SLG.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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  3. #107
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Hits correlate with slugging. The higher the BABIP, the higher the SLG.
    That's not a strong correlation. A strong correlation would be if pitchers with high SLG, had equally high BABIP, and visa versa. A list of pitcher's SLG from high to low, would roughly mirror a list of pitcher's BABIP, from high to low, and that isn't the case.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  4. #108
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    That's not a strong correlation. A strong correlation would be if pitchers with high SLG, had equally high BABIP, and visa versa. A list of pitcher's SLG from high to low, would roughly mirror a list of pitcher's BABIP, from high to low, and that isn't the case.
    HR aren't included in BABIP and it still strongly correlates with SLG. The list of pitchers SLG from high to low does roughly mirror a list of pitchers BABIP and to the extent the association is weakened, a major driver is the removal of HR.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  5. #109
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    HR aren't included in BABIP and it still strongly correlates with SLG. The list of pitchers SLG from high to low does roughly mirror a list of pitchers BABIP and to the extent the association is weakened, a major driver is the removal of HR.
    Is there a very small variance between the highest and the lowest pitcher's SLG as well, because that would need to be the case in order for the correlation to have any meaning, at least in this discussion.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  6. #110
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I'm assuming there is a strong correlation between BABIP and SLG
    Far as I can tell there's almost no correlation between the two. Joe Saunders, Jhoulys Chacin and Ted Lilly were among the NL BABIP leaders last year, and none of them posted a low SLG against. Roy Halladay, Matt Garza and Chris Carpenter had low SLGs against and above average BABIPs.

    Good pitchers routinely keeping the opposing SLG low. Meanwhile BABIP jumps all over the place. In other words, SLG reflects skill, BABIP reflects luck.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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  7. #111
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Roy Halladay, Matt Garza and Chris Carpenter had low SLGs against and above average BABIPs.

    Good pitchers routinely keeping the opposing SLG low. Meanwhile BABIP jumps all over the place. In other words, SLG reflects skill, BABIP reflects luck.
    Just wanted to quote it to point out that even top guys don't really control BABIP all that well.

  8. #112
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    From the Cincinnati Enquirer:

    Ryan Ludwick, who made his Redsí debut with an RBI double, said when he faced Cueto in the past, he felt as if Cueto were trying to strike out every hitter. That wasnít the case Thursday.

    ďHeís pitching now,Ē Ludwick said.

    ďI donít care or look to strike out the hitters,Ē Cueto said. ďI look to get the hitters out through less amount of pitches. Iíll get more innings.Ē
    http://news.cincinnati.com/article/2...PT04/304050134
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  9. #113
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Is there a very small variance between the highest and the lowest pitcher's SLG as well, because that would need to be the case in order for the correlation to have any meaning, at least in this discussion.
    Here's data for pitchers between 2008-2011 tabulated as individual pitcher seasons (i.e. CC Sabathia will show up as 4 entries for example):
    Code:
                 Mean         Var          STDev
    BA           .269        .0053          .073
    BABIP        .305        .0063          .079
    SLG          .429        .0209          .145
    "Very small variance" can be defined differently by different individuals, but these variables are pretty tight IMHO. For reference here's the data for age of this population (which isn't so "tight"): Mean= 28.2; variance= 18.4; STDev= 4.3.

    Here's the regression of the variables being discussed for pitchers between 2008-2011:

    Code:
                  r2
    BA/BABIP     .98
    BA/SLG       .97
    BABIP/SLG    .93
    Clearly, BABIP predicts SLG well.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  10. #114
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Here's data for pitchers between 2008-2011 tabulated as individual pitcher seasons (i.e. CC Sabathia will show up as 4 entries for example):
    Code:
                 Mean         Var          STDev
    BA           .269        .0053          .073
    BABIP        .305        .0063          .079
    SLG          .429        .0209          .145
    "Very small variance" can be defined differently by different individuals, but these variables are pretty tight IMHO. For reference here's the data for age of this population (which isn't so "tight"): Mean= 28.2; variance= 18.4; STDev= 4.3.

    Here's the regression of the variables being discussed for pitchers between 2008-2011:

    Code:
                  r2
    BA/BABIP     .98
    BA/SLG       .97
    BABIP/SLG    .93
    Clearly, BABIP predicts SLG well.
    I have no idea what any of that means. Sorry. I'm not that smart. I'll just end this, because I have a feeling we're boring eveyone else. Lol
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  11. #115
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Here's the regression of the variables being discussed for pitchers between 2008-2011:

    Code:
                  r2
    BA/BABIP     .98
    BA/SLG       .97
    BABIP/SLG    .93
    Clearly, BABIP predicts SLG well.
    I don't feel like crunching the numbers, but I can guarantee you've messed up big time in there. If Halladay, Garza and Carpenter can be top 10 among NL ERA qualifiers in SLG against, yet near the bottom the list for BABIP, then I can guarantee you there's no meaningful correlation between the two. It egregiously fails an eyeball test. The BABIP and SLG against lists are wholly different animals.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  12. #116
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I don't feel like crunching the numbers, but I can guarantee you've messed up big time in there. If Halladay, Garza and Carpenter can be top 10 among NL ERA qualifiers in SLG against, yet near the bottom the list for BABIP, then I can guarantee you there's no meaningful correlation between the two. It egregiously fails an eyeball test. The BABIP and SLG against lists are wholly different animals.
    Agreed. There's also no way that BA correlates to BABIP that highly, especially not just R but R2.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  13. #117
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    I always wondered as a kid..... why Jim Palmer never struck out more than 200 in a year despite going close to or over 300 innings per year. He had a very good rising fastball. His control was good but not outstanding. He would walk 2-3 guys a game and sometimes more.

    He must have figured he only needed to try for strikeouts when he needed them and let his GG filled D behind him catch the ball.

    Palmer had his Davey Johnson, Belanger, Robinson, Bobby Grich and Paul Blair behind him. Cueto has Votto, BP, Rolen, Stubbs, Bruce and we will see how Cozart is. I would rather get outs and get more innings with less pitches from the starters. Maddux must have been very lucky his whole career.

  14. #118
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    I'm bored.
    "I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.

    "Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread

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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    I'm bored.
    Was my post the tipping point?

  16. #120
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    I'm bored.
    So don't read the thread? I actually think this is a really interesting conversation -- just the type I was hoping would happen when I posted the question. Thanks to all involved!
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013


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