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Thread: Is Cueto really an ace?

  1. #121
    Member Captain Hook's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    So don't read the thread? I actually think this is a really interesting conversation -- just the type I was hoping would happen when I posted the question. Thanks to all involved!
    I agree.

    Personally I think Cueto is an ace.The one piece of evidence that has been completely ignored is ERA.I know it's not a real popilar stat around here and I understand why but at some point, in todays game a 2.31 ERA can't be ignored.Cueto prevents runs and that's the name of the game when your're a pitcher.
    Last edited by Captain Hook; 04-07-2012 at 06:34 PM.

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  3. #122
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Josh Beckett gave up 5 HRs today. Ace?

  4. #123
    Member Captain Hook's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    Josh Beckett gave up 5 HRs today. Ace?
    He was terrible in 2010 but after an impressive 2011 I'd still say with out a doubt, yes..Another year like 2010 and I'd have to reconsider.

  5. #124
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I don't feel like crunching the numbers, but I can guarantee you've messed up big time in there. If Halladay, Garza and Carpenter can be top 10 among NL ERA qualifiers in SLG against, yet near the bottom the list for BABIP, then I can guarantee you there's no meaningful correlation between the two. It egregiously fails an eyeball test. The BABIP and SLG against lists are wholly different animals.
    After checking the analysis, I did make a copy error for the r2 data table. To avoid any confusion, below are the correct data in their entirety again:

    Here's data for pitchers between 2008-2011 tabulated as individual pitcher seasons (i.e. CC Sabathia will show up as 4 entries for example):
    Code:
                 Mean         Var          STDev
    BA           .269        .0053          .073
    BABIP        .305        .0063          .079
    SLG          .429        .0209          .145
    "Very small variance" can be defined differently by different individuals, but these variables are pretty tight IMHO. For reference here's the data for age of this population (which isn't so "tight"): Mean= 28.2; variance= 18.4; STDev= 4.3.

    So the above (original) definition of the population was correct. Here are the correct correlations:

    Code:
                  r2
    BA/BABIP     .87
    BA/SLG       .83
    BABIP/SLG    .57
    The point still stands- BABIP predicts SLG well.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  6. #125
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Hook View Post
    I agree.

    Personally I think Cueto is an ace.The one piece of evidence that has been completely ignored is ERA.I know it's not a real popilar stat around here and I understand why but at some point, in todays game a 2.31 ERA can't be ignored.Cueto prevents runs and that's the name of the game when your're a pitcher.
    I don't think ERA is being ignored -- rather, it is being used as a point of departure for the discussion. One of the reasons I even posted the question in the first place is that Cueto's ERA last year bespeaks ace-like dominance. The problem, as we've seen in quite some depth at this point, is that traditional ERA does not do a good job at isolating the things that the pitcher himself can control in a baseball game -- so you've got a lot of numerical noise built in to that statistic (the defense behind him, random luck, etc.) that the other "new" stats are trying to get around.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  7. #126
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    I don't think ERA is being ignored -- rather, it is being used as a point of departure for the discussion. One of the reasons I even posted the question in the first place is that Cueto's ERA last year bespeaks ace-like dominance. The problem, as we've seen in quite some depth at this point, is that traditional ERA does not do a good job at isolating the things that the pitcher himself can control in a baseball game -- so you've got a lot of numerical noise built in to that statistic (the defense behind him, random luck, etc.) that the other "new" stats are trying to get around.
    You don't think Rheal Cormier's ERA in 2006 with the Phillies (before he was traded to the Reds) was reflective of his true skill set?

  8. #127
    Member Captain Hook's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    You don't think Rheal Cormier's ERA in 2006 with the Phillies (before he was traded to the Reds) was reflective of his true skill set?
    What stat would you trust when there's just 34 innings under favorable conditions to go by?

  9. #128
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Forget Cueto's ERA, strikeouts, all of that. You can't call him an ace (yet) for no other reason than this:

    Career high for innings pitched: 186.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

  10. #129
    High five! nate's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Hook View Post
    What stat would you trust when there's just 34 innings under favorable conditions to go by?
    To me, it would be stats.

    Career peripherals and hit ratios.

    If an older pitcher, weight recent seasons more heavily than older seasons.
    "Bring on Rod Stupid!"

  11. #130
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    After checking the analysis, I did make a copy error for the r2 data table. To avoid any confusion, below are the correct data in their entirety again:

    Here's data for pitchers between 2008-2011 tabulated as individual pitcher seasons (i.e. CC Sabathia will show up as 4 entries for example):
    Code:
                 Mean         Var          STDev
    BA           .269        .0053          .073
    BABIP        .305        .0063          .079
    SLG          .429        .0209          .145
    "Very small variance" can be defined differently by different individuals, but these variables are pretty tight IMHO. For reference here's the data for age of this population (which isn't so "tight"): Mean= 28.2; variance= 18.4; STDev= 4.3.

    So the above (original) definition of the population was correct. Here are the correct correlations:

    Code:
                  r2
    BA/BABIP     .87
    BA/SLG       .83
    BABIP/SLG    .57
    The point still stands- BABIP predicts SLG well.
    You're not taking into account the hierarchical nature of your data. You've got pitchers seeded into years, leagues, and teams. The best way to account for this variance is to estimate a multilevel model with random intercepts for for these three things (though including a dummy in your model for the league a pitcher played in would be functionally equivalent to a league random intercept). Your model is also probably underspecified, though I'm not sure off the top of my head what else I'd include. Maybe defensive efficacy.

  12. #131
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    You don't think Rheal Cormier's ERA in 2006 with the Phillies (before he was traded to the Reds) was reflective of his true skill set?
    Uh... no.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  13. #132
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Uh... no.
    It was just a joke...relax.

  14. #133
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    It was just a joke...relax.
    Figured as much. Tough to read sarcasm without emoticons.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  15. #134
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    After checking the analysis, I did make a copy error for the r2 data table. To avoid any confusion, below are the correct data in their entirety again:

    Here's data for pitchers between 2008-2011 tabulated as individual pitcher seasons (i.e. CC Sabathia will show up as 4 entries for example):
    Code:
                 Mean         Var          STDev
    BA           .269        .0053          .073
    BABIP        .305        .0063          .079
    SLG          .429        .0209          .145
    "Very small variance" can be defined differently by different individuals, but these variables are pretty tight IMHO. For reference here's the data for age of this population (which isn't so "tight"): Mean= 28.2; variance= 18.4; STDev= 4.3.

    So the above (original) definition of the population was correct. Here are the correct correlations:

    Code:
                  r2
    BA/BABIP     .87
    BA/SLG       .83
    BABIP/SLG    .57
    The point still stands- BABIP predicts SLG well.

    .57 predicts nothing well. At best, that's poor correlation. And I suspect with a better arranged sample that number would go down. For instance, are you using a single comparison point for each year in your sample or are you breaking it down by league and year?

    On a theoretical note, I don't see why BABIP would have a lot of effect on SLG. Slap singles hitters post low SLGs and the major variable in BABIP is singles. HRs, which have by far the biggest effect on SLG variance, aren't even in BABIP. Really, the only thing that's going to wrench opponent SLG in one direction or the other in any significant way are big swings in FB BABIP (and by big I'm talking +/- .050).
    Last edited by M2; 04-09-2012 at 12:55 AM.
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  16. #135
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Is Cueto really an ace?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    .57 predicts nothing well. At best, that's poor correlation. And I suspect with a better arranged sample that number would go down. For instance, are you crunching the whole four-year sample in a single gulp or are you breaking it down by league and year? If you're doing the former, then you're missing the BABIP swings necessary to prove your theory right.

    On a theoretical note, I don't see why BABIP would have a lot of effect on SLG. Slap singles hitters post low SLGs and the major variable in BABIP is singles. HRs, which have by far the biggest effect on SLG variance, aren't even in BABIP. Really, the only thing that's going to wrench opponent SLG in one direction or the other in any significant way are big swings in FB BABIP (and by big I'm talking +/- .050).
    Actually, it's a correlation strong enough to cure cancer and controlling for usage, league, park etc would likely tighten rather than weaken the correlation. Add HR and Ks back in and it's BA/SLG.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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