Put a fork in them, they're done. We suck. We have an idiot manager, streaky offense, and terrible bullpen.
Arroyo with probably his best outing in 2 years and Dusty takes him out of the game. I've seen enough.
Put a fork in them, they're done. We suck. We have an idiot manager, streaky offense, and terrible bullpen.
Arroyo with probably his best outing in 2 years and Dusty takes him out of the game. I've seen enough.
Its just a slump. I share the concerns about Rolen and Stubbs that many others on this board have, but even those guys aren't going to hit below .150 all year. Same goes for Hanigan and Ludwick. Heisey will hit better. Phillips will hit better than he had when he comes back. The offense has some holes, but its not this awful. Slumps are always magnified early in the season.
I'm sticking with my 92 win prediction.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
I disagree with 92 wins but I agree that the offense isn't this bad and will do better as the year goes on. But I don't think it is a good offense. I didn't think so last year either. They scored runs in streaks last year and dominated LHP, but the offense was prone to long slumps last year and did not hit RHP.Originally Posted by mth123
The Cardinal series was an eye opener. Even without Pujols the team has lefty hitting, righty hitting, switch hitting, patient hitters, contact hitters. The Reds are three guys - Votto, Bruce, Phillips - and a bunch of impatient righty hitters who are overmatched by mediocre right handed pitching. Yes, and a couple of promising rookies.
Nothing is more boring than a middling ballclub that doesn't score runs. And nothing destroys a pitching staff more than a constant stream of good performances with no offensive support. Eventually, the pitchers feel they have to be perfect and this pressure hurts their performances.
Last edited by Kc61; 04-14-2012 at 08:10 AM.
double post, ignore.
Last edited by Kc61; 04-14-2012 at 08:08 AM.
The truth there is that a slow start coinciding with a division foe's jackrabbit start can have you behind the 8 ball all season. See "Wire to Wire," circa 1990. It is fortunate to not be losing a large chunk of ground during a slump, don't ya think?Ahh, the saving grace for Reds fans. ... The rest of the division sucks too, so we're OK.
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
But the only NL team last year that scored more runs was the Cardinals. The run distribution theory has been debunked as myth. This has been a good offense the last two years, one of the best in the league. Maybe every member of the offense will have a bad year, it is statistically possible. I'm guessing probably not, though.
If the Cardinals had their inevitable team wide hitting slump out of the gate, there would be folks right now jumping to the conclusion that Albert meant so much to the offense that they're done. Since they started out hot, the conclusion is that they really haven't missed him at all.
The beginning of the MLB season is always interesting to see reactions to the first few weeks of games. There are always teams that play good out of the gate and are crowned this year's surprise team, just like already the Nats will be getting some attention for starting 6-2. Last year I remember the Red Sox started out slow, had a 1-9 start or something crazy like that, and their demise is certain. Stuff like this happens in the midst of the season, it is just a streak and hardly anyone knows about it. If the Astros went 8-2 at the point where they have a 20-40 record, who cares? But if they hold their own out of the gate, they're a surprise team.
Last edited by traderumor; 04-14-2012 at 08:19 AM.
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
Tust me, I've been pointing out that this offense is quite pedestrian against RHP since the 2009 season. I agree completely, but they usually kill lefty pitchng and Gonzalez made them look silly. This offense lacks a clean-up bat, is mediocre against RHP and the numbers are worse than they appear because they benefit greatly from GABP. They still should score enough runs most of the time to win a lot of games. I really think that Rolen is a bottom of the order bat these days and that Stubbs is a spot player who shoots himself in the foot by being passive on both offense and defense. Those two spots, more than any others are my biggest cause for concern. This team needs to find a 3rd middle fo the order bat (its not Rolen) and keep Phillips healthy and it will be OK. Its not dominant, but its enough if some one from the Mesoraco, Ludwick, Heisey group can provide some consistent production. They won't keep pitchers from pitching around Votto, but they need somebody who can make them pay fairly often when they do.
I really think the Reds were too hasty in dealing Francisco. He was a lefty with pop who played a position where the offense is poor against RHP. He may have had flaws, but he brought things to the table that no one else on the roster does. I hope the Reds can find somebody who can add production against RHP, but the team can still win as is IMO.
Last edited by mth123; 04-14-2012 at 08:40 AM.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Double post
Last edited by mth123; 04-14-2012 at 08:38 AM.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
I was waiting for this. The Reds scored a lot of runs early last year, primarily doing damage against lefties. I saw the run distribution stats last year and I do not think it was a "myth". That's a conclusion some people drew, I thought they showed the Reds to be very uneven in their scoring patterns.
Last year, early, the team was hot with players like Ramon Hernandez off to hot starts. But over the season the team was prone to long, team wide hitting slumps.
I do not think this is a good offense. I think it is no accident that middle level right handed starters like Rickey Nolasco and Jake Westbrook shut them down.
This team will see very few left handed starters this year. Votto will draw a ton of walks because the cleanup spot is not potent. The guy in centerfield cannot make contact and LF is a bizarre platoon of two modest righty hitters who do not complement each other at all.
The Reds offense isn't as bad as right now, but I think the Cards are a much better constructed offense and if they get good pitching they will win the division by a mile. Reds need either very good luck or a few changes if the offense is to be any good.
Last edited by Kc61; 04-14-2012 at 08:50 AM.
I disagree about Francisco completely - I don't think he'll ever hit ML pitching. He's lazy and doesn't have the "heart" - that's just my opinion but when a guy is fighting for a spot on a roster to start his career out and shows up fat and out of shape that tells me a ton. Added to the glaring holes he has in his game, I have NO confidence in him and I'm surprised they got Hoover for him. I'd rather have Frazier at third and let him work himself into the lineup but Rolen isn't going anywhere. Even if he gets hurt it won't be Frazier that gets the chance. Cairo. Yuck. This is a slump and they'll come around but I am beginning to agree there is a problem but I disagree its entirely handedness! Its the general philosophy and makeup of their hitters. No patience- no selectivity, no intelligence from too many of the Reds hitters. They are batting like they're chomping at the bit to swing, getting into the hole too much, they're driving me crazy! I wish we could resurrect Ted K as the hitting coach! I'm not worried about Votto's approach but Stubbs has gone from looking pretty good in game one - like he had seen the light to flipping right back to trying to be Mickey Mantle all the time. Baker's Heisey/Ludwick flip-flopping is ridiculous, he should be platooning Stubbs and Heisey if anything instead of trying to crystal ball which of 2 righties is going to hit better in a given game. This is frustrating to watch but its early. Watching them waste what might be Arroyo's best start of the whole summer by throwing the ball game away - literally....yeesh!
Francisco has a lot of warts, but when Rolen is struggling to OPS .675 against RHP, going to Cairo or Frazier won't be an upgrade against those same RHP. Francisco's career splits agianst RHP .287/.335/.473/.809. It's only 161 PAs, but he's the only hope they had. And, IMO, he's a better defender than either Frazier or Cairo as well.
My truck has some mechanical issues and it sputters once in a while and idles rough, but when I need to haul something from point A to point B, its still better than than my bicycle. When it comes to playing 3B against RHP, Francisco may be a sputtering truck, but those other guys are bicycles.
Last edited by mth123; 04-14-2012 at 09:29 AM.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
It will continue to be brought up since the facts are historical in nature and will not change. The Reds are two years running of being the best and second best offense in the league, over the course of an entire season, a very long, statistically significant number of events (324). The Reds won when they had slightly above league average pitching with this cast of characters, that is most likely the same formula for success this season. Using the first 8 games of the season to deride the offense is no different than claiming that the offense was second in RS because of a fast start. You can't have it both ways.
BTW, if the Reds were poor against righties, and I'm guessing that righty starters comprise about 75% of starts (maybe even more), there is no way "beating up on lefties" is going to yield top of the league production over 162 events. The numbers just won't work.
Last edited by traderumor; 04-14-2012 at 09:38 AM.
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
The historical fact is that the Reds had a .717 OPS against righties last year and over .790 against lefties. The team also had one of the league's highest strikeout totals last season, led by one player whose 205 strikeouts is just an astonishing number.
Total runs scored can be misleading and I believe it was misleading in the case of the Reds. The team can't hit mid-level righty starters and doesn't have ability to come up with good matchups in the late innings against right handed relievers. Yes, Javy Valentin would help about now.
This is not a winning offense. I don't care how many runs they scored last year. If this team is to win, it will have to be on the basis of pitching and defense, unless some changes are made.
The Reds were 8th in the NL in OPS vs RHP in 2011. When you factor in the hitters paradise where they play, I'd say that is a poor showing.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Again, what you believe is not in line with the facts. This was debated last year, and repeating the myths doesn't make them suddenly accurate conclusions.
The Reds starting pitching was awful last year, the bullpen got wore out and faded, end of story. I am so glad that management recognized that fact and didn't go chasing after more runs, but addressed run prevention. I remember at one point it was the fault of one run games. Then we started winning those because it is something that tends to even out over the course of the season.
Yet here we are, folks still making statements that have been shown to be inaccurate, with the data to support it.
BTW, the context of the Reds performance against RHP is league average = .710, Reds are at .717. Yes, they are dramatically better against lefties vs. the rest of the league, but based on your facts, they are even above average against righties, when compared to the rest of the league.
Last edited by traderumor; 04-14-2012 at 11:26 AM.
"Rounding 3rd and heading for home, good night everybody"
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