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View Poll Results: Should the Reds move Billy Hamilton to CF in 2012?

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  • Yes

    23 39.66%
  • No

    13 22.41%
  • Other/Maybe eventually but not now

    22 37.93%
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Thread: Billy Hamilton to CF?

  1. #16
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton to CF?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Team's all set at SS.
    Little early on that one given that Hamilton is still 2 years away. Guys have started out hotter and fallen quickly than Cozart who were much more highly touted. Not that I expect it to happen, but Cozart has what, 100 at bats in his MLB career?

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  3. #17
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton to CF?

    I'd never take a guy off short until he forced me to. That said, I just had a very sad thought of who Hamilton reminds me of -- Tony Womack.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #18
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    Re: Billy Hamilton to CF?

    Little early on that one given that Hamilton is still 2 years away. Guys have started out hotter and fallen quickly than Cozart who were much more highly touted. Not that I expect it to happen, but Cozart has what, 100 at bats in his MLB career?
    Cozart is 26. His game is mature. He is not going to fall off a cliff.

    The best argument for keeping Hamilton and Didi at SS is build trade value. It could very well be the best way to go.

    However, SS is not a position of need -- it's the opposite. CF, on the other hand, is looking weaker by the day. Lotta toolsy players who, with the exception of Phipps, have never shown a level of performance that matches the tools. Hamilton would instantly become the top prospect at the spot with no apparent roadblocks, IMO.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  5. #19
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton to CF?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Cozart is 26. His game is mature. He is not going to fall off a cliff.

    The best argument for keeping Hamilton and Didi at SS is build trade value. It could very well be the best way to go.

    However, SS is not a position of need -- it's the opposite. CF, on the other hand, is looking weaker by the day. Lotta toolsy players who, with the exception of Phipps, have never shown a level of performance that matches the tools. Hamilton would instantly become the top prospect at the spot with no apparent roadblocks, IMO.
    Don't get me wrong, I am a Cozart supporter and believe he could be an above average every day shortstop. But stranger things have happened than an aggressive hitter finding struggles in the Majors after initially hitting well.

  6. #20
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton to CF?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I'd never take a guy off short until he forced me to. That said, I just had a very sad thought of who Hamilton reminds me of -- Tony Womack.
    Tony Womack never stole more than 50 bases while in the minors. Furthermore, his highest minor league OBP was just .341. Billy really struggled in the first half of last year and still got his OBP up to .340 after a .383 OBP in rookie ball. Also, Womack never slugged higher than .387 in a minor league season and that was when he was 26 in the PCL.

    I think Tony Womack is the absolute floor when it comes to comps for Billy Hamilton. We can only pray that if all goes right he turns into Rickey Henderson...

  7. #21
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton to CF?

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    Tony Womack never stole more than 50 bases while in the minors. Furthermore, his highest minor league OBP was just .341. Billy really struggled in the first half of last year and still got his OBP up to .340 after a .383 OBP in rookie ball. Also, Womack never slugged higher than .387 in a minor league season and that was when he was 26 in the PCL.

    I think Tony Womack is the absolute floor when it comes to comps for Billy Hamilton. We can only pray that if all goes right he turns into Rickey Henderson...
    Eh, Tony Womack was a major leaguer. Hamilton is in A ball. His floor is much lower than Womack at this point.

  8. #22
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton to CF?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Eh, Tony Womack was a major leaguer. Hamilton is in A ball. His floor is much lower than Womack at this point.
    I may have exxagerated, Doug. Either way, wouldn't you say the most likely scenario of Billy's development has him as a better major leaguer than Tony Womack?

  9. #23
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton to CF?

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    I may have exxagerated, Doug. Either way, wouldn't you say the most likely scenario of Billy's development has him as a better major leaguer than Tony Womack?
    Honestly, the only thing that could separate the two is more walks and more steals. I think the average and slugging are pretty much in line with what I would expect. Hamilton might get a little more slugging, but I doubt he goes above .400.

  10. #24
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton to CF?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Honestly, the only thing that could separate the two is more walks and more steals. I think the average and slugging are pretty much in line with what I would expect. Hamilton might get a little more slugging, but I doubt he goes above .400.
    Well walks are very important from a lead-off hitter and if he can steal 50+ bases in the bigs at his 83.7% success rate last year, that is a pretty material difference between Hamilton and Womack. I have some of the same doubts you do about his slugging, and doubt he ever can slug .577 like Rickey did in 1990, but Rickey did slug only .358 in AA when he was 19.

    This being said, I don't think Billy can ever be Rickey, but I certainly think there is a greater than 70% chance that he has a better major league career than Tony Womack.

  11. #25
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    Re: Billy Hamilton to CF?

    I agree with some of the others that I'd wait to move him off SS until next year or this offseason at the earliest. That gives us this year to figure out:
    Whether Cozart is the long-term answer at SS
    Whether Stubbs is the long-term answer at CF
    Whether LaMarre has a big league future
    ...and let's Hamilton hopefully continue to rake this year while not worrying about how to learn a new position.

    Assuming Cozart continues to impress, and LaMarre doesn't find any power to speak of, I'd probably move Hamilton to CF in Pensacola next year (or this offseason).
    He could be the next Michael Bourn, or Juan Pierre with a better OBP.
    Last edited by Benihana; 04-18-2012 at 12:39 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

  12. #26
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    Re: Billy Hamilton to CF?

    This seems like a really tough call. I think Hamilton could make an incredible center fielder (I keep hearkening back to that catch he made last year near the left-field warning track, from shortstop) and would love to see a replacement for Stubbs in the pipeline.

    On the other hand, I can understand not moving a top prospect from shortstop as long as he shows the potential to play the position. The way I see it, he is now a consideration at two positions: SS and CF (actually three, counting second base). But if you move him to CF, I think SS gets eliminated from the equation. It seems unlikely that a player would be returned to SS from CF.

    I guess I'd rather hold on to the highest possible number of options. Which means he sticks at SS until things clear up.

    That said, I think he should be getting some preliminary work in CF. But that's also complicated, because he's still learning to hit and switch-hit, and you don't want to distract him too much.

    All in all, a delicate situation.

  13. #27
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    Re: Billy Hamilton to CF?

    Quote Originally Posted by mace View Post
    This seems like a really tough call. I think Hamilton could make an incredible center fielder (I keep hearkening back to that catch he made last year near the left-field warning track, from shortstop) and would love to see a replacement for Stubbs in the pipeline.

    On the other hand, I can understand not moving a top prospect from shortstop as long as he shows the potential to play the position. The way I see it, he is now a consideration at two positions: SS and CF (actually three, counting second base). But if you move him to CF, I think SS gets eliminated from the equation. It seems unlikely that a player would be returned to SS from CF.

    I guess I'd rather hold on to the highest possible number of options. Which means he sticks at SS until things clear up.

    That said, I think he should be getting some preliminary work in CF. But that's also complicated, because he's still learning to hit and switch-hit, and you don't want to distract him too much.

    All in all, a delicate situation.
    Agree with this, which is why I wouldn't do anything with him this year. He could also be a trade chip either at this year's deadline or this offseason- perhaps for a cleanup hitting LF or 3B.

    If he's still in the organization come Spring Training, and the other conditions apply (Cozart looks good, Stubbs/LaMarre do not), I'd probably consider switching him to CF.
    Go BLUE!!!

  14. #28
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton to CF?

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    Tony Womack never stole more than 50 bases while in the minors. Furthermore, his highest minor league OBP was just .341. Billy really struggled in the first half of last year and still got his OBP up to .340 after a .383 OBP in rookie ball. Also, Womack never slugged higher than .387 in a minor league season and that was when he was 26 in the PCL.

    I think Tony Womack is the absolute floor when it comes to comps for Billy Hamilton. We can only pray that if all goes right he turns into Rickey Henderson...
    Rickey was a full-time major leaguer at age 20 and an MVP caliber player at age 21.

    Let's see Hamilton hit pitchers who can locate their secondary pitches before we assume he's going to have a 10+ year major league career.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  15. #29
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton to CF?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Rickey was a full-time major leaguer at age 20 and an MVP caliber player at age 21.

    Let's see Hamilton hit pitchers who can locate their secondary pitches before we assume he's going to have a 10+ year major league career.
    Exactly. He also walked a LOT more than he struck out. And to top it off, he would sometimes get over 100 free passes in a season to go with a career OBP of .401. Rickey is one of the best baseball players in the history of the game. Hamilton has come a long way, but he still has a long way to go before he's Tony Womack, let alone The Man of Steal.

  16. #30
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton to CF?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Rickey was a full-time major leaguer at age 20 and an MVP caliber player at age 21.

    Let's see Hamilton hit pitchers who can locate their secondary pitches before we assume he's going to have a 10+ year major league career.
    Completely agreed. Rickey Henderson is one of the all-time greats as far as I'm concerned.

    I just wanted to provide what I believe could be Billy's ceiling if he adds some power to his game.

    I just think that Billy Hamilton can have a much better career than Tony Womack did. Billy is a world-class athlete. Even if he fully developed, it would be very difficult for Billy to have a Rickey Henderson-like career.


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