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Thread: Billy Hamilton: #1 on the BA Hot Sheet

  1. #181
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton: #1 on the BA Hot Sheet

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Hamilton is a SS, the two guys you mentioned are good players, but OF.
    That's one advantage.
    If he can play SS (I realize the jury is still out on that), and have the offensive skills of those players, that's a pretty good asset.

    High OBP SS, with Billy's range and speed are rare indeed.
    I realize his SLG will be limited, but I feel it's a good player.

    In my opinion, he's more valuable than a prospect like Alonso was when Alonso was at this level.
    I am merely saying offensively, there is nothing that really separates him from Bourn or Gardner other than his minor league stolen base totals that probably aren't going to be anywhere near that in the Major Leagues. He will probably still lead the league in steals, but he isn't going to be stealing 100 bags. Teams simply don't run that much, even when they have the fastest player in the game.

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  3. #182
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton: #1 on the BA Hot Sheet

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I am merely saying offensively, there is nothing that really separates him from Bourn or Gardner other than his minor league stolen base totals that probably aren't going to be anywhere near that in the Major Leagues. He will probably still lead the league in steals, but he isn't going to be stealing 100 bags. Teams simply don't run that much, even when they have the fastest player in the game.
    It's hard to say. His success rate of stealing in the minors last year was in the low 80%, I think. If he can maintain that at the ML level, why wouldn't you run him often? Sure, there's a few game situations that you wouldn't run him in, but I think within the next 20 years, we will see someone have a 100 steal season. It might not be Billy but someone will.

    Anyhow, I love Billy's potential. That's why I say he's untouchable. He might be a once-in-a-generation player. The odds of that happening are naturally against that, but I don't like trading players like that, especially for pitching prospects, which have a higher rate of disappointment.
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  4. #183
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    Re: Billy Hamilton: #1 on the BA Hot Sheet

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    It's hard to say. His success rate of stealing in the minors last year was in the low 80%, I think. If he can maintain that at the ML level, why wouldn't you run him often? Sure, there's a few game situations that you wouldn't run him in, but I think within the next 20 years, we will see someone have a 100 steal season. It might not be Billy but someone will.

    Anyhow, I love Billy's potential. That's why I say he's untouchable. He might be a once-in-a-generation player. The odds of that happening are naturally against that, but I don't like trading players like that, especially for pitching prospects, which have a higher rate of disappointment.
    Well for starters, minor league pitchers can't hold runners on and minor league catchers can't all throw. And I just think I would rather not run him 120 times to get him 100 steals and just let him score from first on anything that a runner might even think about trying to stretch into a double.

    I don't know, when I see Hamilton I see Bourn and Gardner if things go right for Hamilton. Those guys are good players, but they aren't 'untouchables' or even close to it. I am not sure what you envision when you see him, but when I think of an 'untouchable' prospect, they better be Jay Bruce at the plate or Cueto/Bailey on the mound (when they were prospects), not slap hitters who run incredibly fast and may one day play really, really good defense.

    I wouldn't trade Hamilton for another minor leaguer right now, because that would be a waste of his value to the big league team. If you are going to move him, you do it to help the Reds today.

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    Re: Billy Hamilton: #1 on the BA Hot Sheet

    Question about Hamilton playing CF:

    Hip2Hops (Seattle): What kind of arm does a player need to profile as a CF? I'm specifically thinking about Billy Hamilton. While his speed in CF would be awesome, is it typical that a lack of arm strength would "demote" a SS prospect to CF?

    Ben Lindbergh: Yes, that wouldn't be unusual. Bernie Williams and Johnny Damon played center field without arms (not quite literally, but almost, at times). Williams even won Gold Gloves there (though whether he should have is another matter). Obviously, a strong arm is an asset at any position, but a center field's primary responsibility is getting to the ball. It seems safe to say that Hamilton would get to a lot of them.

    Communiqué from Kevin: Hamilton’s arm in center would profile as “Below average, but not a noodle.” Damon/Williams were noodles.


    and after seeing Didi play SS for the Wahoo's 12 games, his arm would be Juan Pierre like in CF....
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    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Billy Hamilton: #1 on the BA Hot Sheet

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I wouldn't trade Hamilton for another minor leaguer right now, because that would be a waste of his value to the big league team. If you are going to move him, you do it to help the Reds today.
    Well, we can disagree. I think he will play at least average defense at SS or above average defense at CF. Based on what I've read, he might have above average OBP in the majors. His speed is a big plus, in my opinion. I think you are underrating stolen bases and the potential defensive skills he has.

    When you combine all those traits, you've got a very unique player.

    Think of Rafael Furcal when he was a prospect.. I remember the excitement when Atlanta called him up. Would you have traded him as a prospect?
    Probably not, unless you got bowled over, which simply is not going to happen.

    No one is likely to bowl us over for Hamilton either.. (ie no one is going to offer us the #1 power hitting prospect, or the #1 hitting prospect).
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    Re: Billy Hamilton: #1 on the BA Hot Sheet

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Well, we can disagree. I think he will play at least average defense at SS or above average defense at CF. Based on what I've read, he might have above average OBP in the majors. His speed is a big plus, in my opinion. I think you are underrating stolen bases and the potential defensive skills he has.

    When you combine all those traits, you've got a very unique player.

    Think of Rafael Furcal when he was a prospect.. I remember the excitement when Atlanta called him up. Would you have traded him as a prospect?
    Probably not, unless you got bowled over, which simply is not going to happen.

    No one is likely to bowl us over for Hamilton either.. (ie no one is going to offer us the #1 power hitting prospect, or the #1 hitting prospect).
    No but I bet Hamilton could be the lead prospect in a package to go get a MLB ready 3B/LF bat.
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    Re: Billy Hamilton: #1 on the BA Hot Sheet

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I don't know, when I see Hamilton I see Bourn and Gardner if things go right for Hamilton.
    For one thing, I'd love to have a Gardner or even a Bourn at the top of the current line-up.

    Second, there's fast and there's FAST. Those two didn't get anywhere near 100 sb's in the minors. As RedRead mentioned, he's a VERY unusual talent. It's not just SB's. He'd put a metric ton of pressure on opposing defenses and might be able to track down everything in CF.
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    Re: Billy Hamilton: #1 on the BA Hot Sheet

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    For one thing, I'd love to have a Gardner or even a Bourn at the top of the current line-up.

    Second, there's fast and there's FAST. Those two didn't get anywhere near 100 sb's in the minors. As RedRead mentioned, he's a VERY unusual talent. It's not just SB's. He'd put a metric ton of pressure on opposing defenses and might be able to track down everything in CF.
    Billy Hamilton is not even a full step faster than those guys over the course of 90 feet. He isn't. Go time them all. They are all within a tenth of a second of Hamilton every single time.

    If Hamilton can be either one of those guys, I am all in. They are not something to be ashamed of at all. I am simply saying that is where I see him at if things go right for him and while I really think those guys are good players, they aren't untouchable players.

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    Re: Billy Hamilton: #1 on the BA Hot Sheet

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Go time them all.
    Ok Doug, I'll do that.
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  11. #190
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    Re: Billy Hamilton: #1 on the BA Hot Sheet

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    Ok Doug, I'll do that.
    Report back their times. I have done it. All fall in that 3.75-3.9 range from home to first.

    Hamilton isn't out there running 2 and 3 tenths faster than anyone else in the game. He might be hundredths faster on average than the other fastest guys in baseball.

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    Re: Billy Hamilton: #1 on the BA Hot Sheet

    Hamilton is apparently going to have to be a good OBP% guy to have big value. And it looks like he has the potential to be just that. If so, you've got to find a place for him because he would be a monster lead-off hitter. The question then becomes, what is his best position defensively. It seems like his speed, range and arm combination are overkill for what would be required at 2nd base. On the other hand, from the reports you have to wonder whether his arm and hands might be a tad deficient for SS. Therfore, I sort of expect that his best defensive position might ultimately be CF. I think elite arm strength is more important for the SS position than CF, and goodness knows he has the speed to be special in the amount of ground he could cover.

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    Re: Billy Hamilton: #1 on the BA Hot Sheet

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=16820

    BP podcast. Go to 58th minute (somehow) and they gush about Hamilton, the fastest many have ever seen. Their biggest key is how he showed he can make adjustments to baseball and improve at the plate. That's a really good sign, at least to prospect people.
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  14. #193
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    Re: Billy Hamilton: #1 on the BA Hot Sheet

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=16820

    BP podcast. Go to 58th minute (somehow) and they gush about Hamilton, the fastest many have ever seen. Their biggest key is how he showed he can make adjustments to baseball and improve at the plate. That's a really good sign, at least to prospect people.
    May be the fastest they have ever seen. He still isn't all that much faster than the other fastest guys we have in the game today. If they had a race over 90 feet, it would be insanely close. I continue to be impressed by the plate discipline. He hasn't walked yet in May, but also only has 4 strikeouts (he did miss a few games, but still). If he can continue to improve his contact rates, even slightly from where they are now, over the next few years, he can be a quality Major League hitter.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 05-11-2012 at 07:54 AM.

  15. #194
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    Re: Billy Hamilton: #1 on the BA Hot Sheet

    Doug, how does Billy's time going from 1st to 2nd on a steal or going 1st to 3rd compare to those guys? What is his success rate vs those guys? Could Bourne get out of the box from the left side quicker than billy, but once Billy gets going he blazes past him? Billy is still fresh to being a switch hitter, I'd imagine getting out of the box from the left side as your just learning to do so would slow you down a shade. Is Billy better at reading pitchers and able to extend his lead another foot? I don't know the answers to any of those, but they're things that could add up aside from the home to 1st bat time that have lead to the "fastest guy I've ever seen" On the flip side, there is the natural tendancy to assume anything you're seeing today is better than what you saw in the past, ie how many "greatest game I've ever seen" get played each decade.

    Lance McCallister mentioned a stat the other day, on balls hit on the ground to an infielder, Billy gets on base 40% of the time thru either an infield hit or an error. That is incredible. Obviously minor leaguers are going to rush things more into an error than a guy like Scott Rolen so his safe thru error rate would drop a decent clip in the majors, but that is still incredible to me.

    I think Bourne is a solid comp, and I'd love Billy to turn into that kind of player, however I agree a bourne type is hardly untouchable.

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    Re: Billy Hamilton: #1 on the BA Hot Sheet

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    May be the fastest they have ever seen. He still isn't all that much faster than the other fastest guys we have in the game today. If they had a race over 90 feet, it would be insanely close.
    You could line up the fastest men in the world and they would all race insanely close to the fastest ever (Bolt) over 90 feet. You mention 3.75 to 3.90 as the range all the fastest runners get to 1B out of the box. If Hamilton is on the 3.75 side and someone else is 3.90, that (.15 a second) is a pretty big difference over 90 feet (30 yards).

    Just look at how football players are judged at the combine over 40 yards. A guy running 4.40 and a guy at the same position running a 4.55 are looked at very differently when it comes time to investing in one or the other. And still, over 90 feet, I’m sure if they raced it would be extremely close. In a game of inches, every thousandths of a second is huge.


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