I am trying to figure out how Hamilton was #2 on the list. Of the hitters on the list, he easily had the lowest OPS. Here are the OPS numbers of the hitters on the list, in order.
1.947
.958
1.302
1.447
1.457
1.446
1.612
One of those is not like the others. At all. He had a good week. But #2? I guess if you add in the steals it brings him closer, but he was #2 and #1 more than DOUBLED his OPS and everyone else was nearly 50% higher in OPS or more.
Add 12 bases to his slugging percentage (and lose two bases, due to the caught stealing of 2B this week), and you get a SB-aided slugging percentage of .958. Add in his obp of .500 and the OPS is 1.458.
Except it doesn't work that way because he didn't advance any other base runners with his steals. You would also need to take off two times on base from that OBP even if you wanted to do some funny math.Originally Posted by Scrap Irony
If you don't believe that speed is that valuable, you don't rank him second. Clearly, they do.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
Slugging percentage isn't based on getting other people home. It's TB/ ABs.
We've had this argument before, BTW, and it's safe to say neither one of us is going to convince the other of their argument's merits. You dismiss the stolen base as next to useless. It's been a running commentary in your "analysis" of prospects for years. I think it's much more valuable than that and point to players like Hamilton as proof.
You can measure his total bases, however, minus his CS and call it speed-adjusted SLG. You can add that to OBP and call it SOPS. It's a legitimate measure of TB + SB - CS / AB.
I thought I'd done the math correctly. If not, I blame Mrs. Moore, my high school Algebra II teacher. I took off a two total bases, as he got caught stealing second. It still works. Unless, of course, I again screwed up. Which is possible.
If you don't like the SOPS, how about Total Baseball's SBR?
According the SBR (.3 x Stolen Bases) - (.6 x Caught Stealing), Hamilton's stolen bases were worth three runs last week. That's on top of his 958 OPS.Numerous statistical studies done by Total Baseball have shown that the break even success rate for steals (the rate at which an attempt to steal is neither helping nor hurting the team in terms of total runs scored) is about 67%. Each successful steal adds approximately .3 runs to a team's total runs scored which is much less than often believed. Therefore, the statistic is meant to estimate the impact of base-stealers, which, other than the elite base-stealers, rarely amounts to more than a few runs per year for each team.
For the year, Hamilton has 69 SB and 13 CS. That's a SBR score of 12.9. That means, on top of his excellent OPS (mid 800s), outstanding OBP (400-ish), and 320+ BA, add 13 runs. What's even more mind-boggling is that he has a real chance to double that number.
The media has to try to make things interesting, and I think the Reds will call up Billy Hamilton earlier than necessary next year as a marketing ploy.
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Way to take the article a bit too seriously, Doug. Billy Hamilton is a freak of nature. He's doing things that haven't been done in a long time in the SB department. Is he the best prospect in baseball (or even top 10)? Heck no. But he's extremely exciting. How 'bout we enjoy the good pub he's receiving?
• Donavan Tate, lf/cf, Padres. In three of the last four drafts the Diamondbacks have come away with Trevor Bauer, the Orioles with Manny Machado and the Royals with Eric Hosmer when holding the third overall pick in the draft. The Padres, as luck would have it, selected Donavan Tate No. 3 overall in 2009, a year in which Stephen Strasburg and Dustin Ackley went off the board first. While those two players already have starred in the big leagues, Tate remains mired in low Class A with no obvious timetable for promotion. He's still just 21 years old, and he's enjoying his healthiest stretch as a professional, but the silver lining extends only so far. On the heels of a modest eight-game hitting streak in mid-May, Tate went 1-for-20 with 12 strikeouts and four walks this week for Fort Wayne, dropping his season line to .201/.281/.221 in 149 at-bats. His three extra-base hits (all doubles) translate to a .020 isolated power that ranks last among Midwest League qualifiers.
That's brutal.
In Hamilton's case, I don't dismiss them as useless because he steals enough of them, at least now at a high enough rate, for them to actually matter. My stance is generally, if you aren't stealing at 80% or better and 30+ bases, steals are a wasted attempt. Hamilton, is not that guy.
Slugging percentage isn't based on getting others home, but the reason it correlates to runs scored isn't simply because it counts your bases alone.
I take everything too seriously, except for things that should be taken seriously, in which case I tend to make jokes about.
All I am saying is on a 'Hot Sheet', steals aren't a thing of being hot or not. Hitting wise, Hamilton had a very good week. It wasn't in the same realm as the other guys on the list, but he ranked higher than all of them but one.
Again, if you take his stolen bases into consideration, he had just as good as any of them.
Those three extra runs are HUGE in a week's time.
It's like hitting three solo dingers, added on top of his other numbers.
(Which would make his OPS Olt-like.)
It isn't like hitting three solo home runs, at all. You could steal 12 bases in a weak and never score. You can not hit 3 solo home runs and never score.
So, just to see if I'm right here, you're arguing that
1) Speed-adjusted slugging is "funny math" because non-speed-adjusted slugging movers along the hypothetical runner, and,
2) SBR doesn't count because it involves hypotherical runs.
Do I have that right?
No wonder I have problems with math! (And apparently ghost runners.)
I can't say that I have checked into the math for SBR, so I don't know if it counts or not.
Speed adjusted slugging is funny math, at least in the way you were attempting to use it.
yesterday's enquirerThe Reds haven’t decided if Billy Hamilton will get bumped up to Double-A yet.
“We’re discussing it,” said assistant director of player development Jeff Graupe. “He’s made a lot of really good progress.”
Hamilton is hitting .322 with a .407 on-base percentage at Single-A Bakersfield. He’s stolen 73 bases in 89 attempts.
If I had to guess, I’d say he gets moved up. But some players at Hamilton’s stage spend the entire year at high A. Joey Votto did, for instance.
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