At this point if he stays but works on driving the ball I'm all for it...
At this point if he stays but works on driving the ball I'm all for it...
I just hope he doesn't get exposed at AA. He's a pretty valuable trade piece for a team that has a few guys that could adequately man SS/CF over the next 3 years ahead of him in the system. Use him in a package to get that major league LF/3B and play Frazier at the other spot.
I don't buy that his speed plays at the Major League level like it does at A+.
Originally Posted by schmidty622
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
The more I see the lack of depth the Reds have position player wise, the more I can see BH come up as a base running specialist come Sept/Playoffs. I know I'm way ahead of myself here but if Harris/Negron/Costanzo is our 25th man, I'd just as soon have Billy up for the end of the year. I'm assuming adding him to the 40 man can be worked out.
His speed will play. It's already been seen against Major League talent in the prospects game where he was causing Leake and Bailey all kinds of issues.
It's more of a question of whether or not he's going to get on base enough to make it a worthwhile asset.
I see great things in baseball. It's our game.
The Reds are not going to trade Hamilton, at least not until they have a better idea of what they have with him.
His speed will play in the major leagues but he will have to hit. If he hits, you have a player who will impact the game like no one else. If he doesn't hit, the speed becomes irrelevant because he will not be in the lineup.
In my humble opinion, if you move Billy up now and let him spend the second half in Pensacola, he hits .220-.230. Anything better than that would be a plus. If he finishes the year in Bakersfield and goes to AA next year, he should be able to flirt with .300 in 2013, hopefully.
For those asking for Hamilton to start hitting for power, not gonna happen. His power will come from getting doubles that would be singles for anyone else, or triples that would be doubles for anyone else. As a hitter, he needs to make more contact and improve his bunting. That's what you are dealing with.
Lastly, I threw out the idea of Hamilton going up in September a while back after hearing some scouts discussing it. How do you NOT do it? Did you see the game a week ago when Cairo barely scored on the safety squeeze? You have a guy that would be perfect for those kind of situations. He is going to change the whole defensive alignment when he's on base in a close game, late, taking away infielder's range, forcing outfielders to play farther in. If you get to key September games and you have that weapon you can bring into a close game, you have something the other manager can't match. If you asked every Reds minor league manager and hitting coach (who have seen Hamilton first hand) if the Reds should do that, I would be shocked if you got one single no vote. The 40-man question comes down to whether he is big league ready by 2017. I think you can gamble that he will be.
Keep in mind one thing with Billy Hamilton: I don't know if he will hit in the bigs or not, but he is on pace to do something this year on the bases that has never been in the history of minor league baseball. Never. Appreciate what it must take to make that statement.
Last edited by redsof72; 06-18-2012 at 12:09 AM.
Article on Hamilton from June 11. He is now on pace for 160 stolen bases at the half way point of the season.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/...se-in-decades/
I had entertained this thought earlier in the year without fully understanding how major league options work. always been under the impression that a player had a finite number of options that could be used from the time he was added to the 40 man until he had accrued enough service time to no longer be eligible for arbitration.
clearly I was way off.
Based on what I just read (and maybe someone can help me out if I'm wrong) options doesn't refer to a set number of times, but a number of years. In other words, it doesn't mean a player can be called up and sent down 5 (or 7 or 12) times, it means that after a player is added to the 25 man roster, he has a 3 year window of option eligibility. So if Hamilton was called up in Sept, that would be year one, 2013 would be year two, 2014 would be year three, and he would have to stay on the big league roster by 2015.
additionally, since options refers to years and not a number of demotions/promotions between the minors/majors, you could literally send a guy between AAA and the majors every single week as long as it fell within that three year option period.
If I'm off base here and someone could straighten me out, I'd appreciate it.
(Referring to Jack Hannahan signing with a Korean team)
Since there are no teams on the moon, I guess South Korea's far enough from Cincinnati to satisfy me.
-RichRed
No, you are still slightly confused. If Hamilton were called up this year, he would only use an option year in a year in which he gets sent back to the minors. So he would not use an option this year since they wouldn't send him to the minors. Next spring when he didn't make the team and was sent to the minors, that would be his first option. If you get called up and never go back down, you don't use any options.
What would your thoughts be on bringing up up for Sept/Oct? I'm simply curious. No wrong answer.
I wouldn't do it. And you would have to bring him up August 31st to make him eligible for the playoffs. You are going to burn up two options before he is even close to ready for the Majors, probably. He should spend the next two season in the minors. First option in 2013 and then the next in 2014. At best he will be ready mid 2014. That means he only has one option at that point.
Nm
Nah.
At best, he's ready sometime in 2013, after half a season at AA and half a season at AAA.
IF (notice the caps) the Reds decide he's ready for AA now, he could conceivably play two full seasons n the upper minors and still be ready for September call-ups next season.
(And that's not really "at best." At best, he finds a bit of power/ fills out a bit more and tears the cover off the ball in the spring after having spent half a season at AA.)
And, for the record, I'd bring him up, no doubt, just as a pinch runner and bunt specialist. I'd lose whatever combination of Valdez, Costanzo, or Cairo, understanding the Reds would still have at least two of Stubbs, Heisey, Rolen, Ludwick, and Frazier on the bench as PH/ extra OF, not to mention a defensive specialist/ extra IF.
In games that come down to one run, speed and the pressure Hamilton can put on another team is worth exponentially more than any of the scrubeenies on the Cincinnati team. He's Billy Bates with an extra step. or even two.
Last edited by Scrap Irony; 06-18-2012 at 01:46 PM.
I guess at best was the wrong phrase. How about most likely?
Billy Bates scored 2 runs in the playoffs in 1990. One in the NLCS in a game we won by 3 runs. The other one was in game 2 of the World Series on the Oliver hit.
I just don't see it. You want speed? Call up Theo Bowe. He is on pace for 70 steals himself and he isn't exactly the caliber prospect of Hamilton and can be removed from the 40 man roster easily.
Bates also hit .293 in AA/AAA that year with more walks than strikeouts. He was at least arguably ready to face MLB pitching.
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