I have a question. Is the negativity surrounding Logan more because of a negative impact that he has had on the Reds overall or because of a perception of how he will negatively impact the team moving forward?
And number two isn't even accurate. Independent means "not influenced by the thought or action of others." Both SIERRA and tERA are influenced by the actions of others because they're based on having an average defense. It assumes a normal interaction with the defensive players, so it's not completely independent of fielding.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
The small sample size argument is a good one, but not just because of luck, or regression, but also because middle relievers strive on being unknown. Once they go through the league, they become known and therefore less effective, which is why a good organization cycles through many middle relievers every few years. If they had the ability to get hitters out over and over again, they would be starters.
As for defense, I see that the same way I see home park effects. Sure some hitters or pitcher strive in certain parks, but that's because they are smart enough to utilize their home field advantage. There are lots of pitchers who have failed in Petco and Safeco, and hitters who have failed in Coors and GABP.
Likewise, a smart pitcher who doesn't have a high K rate can use his smarts to take advantage of his defense. This is especially true now with all the special defenses and shifts. I'm not going to penalize a pitcher because he's smart enough to pitch hitters so that they hit into defensive alignments behind him. With more and more of these shifts happening league wide, I think we will see lower and lower BABIP maintained.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
Last edited by jojo; 08-19-2012 at 07:47 PM.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
We can probably just conclude that he's above average in that regard, but in a way that doesn't have a significant impact on his overall bottom line.
160 innings is 160 innings. Same amount of batters being faced. It's not a significant sample to draw conclustions from. You have a hyopthesis on Ondrusek from that sample, which is fine, but I think history suggests that the hypothesis is likely incorrect. I think what we know about pitchers controls on batted balls that Ondrusek may very well have 'some' control, and as a result might continue to outperform his peripherals to 'some' degree, but I don't think it's to the extent you are suggesting, because there just aren't a history of examples consistent with that analysis.
In the end, you think he's average, I think he's a clear cut below average. That might be the difference between half a win in a given year, so the debate is hardly material. The Reds already figured that whatever he was, they didn't love using him in key situations, hence the Broxton addition.
I'm fine just leaving it at that.
I think he's average despite his OPS being above average. That's because I'm allowing for 'some' regression with balls in play. So really, I don't need to jump very far to make the conclusion because even if you regress some of his BABIP, his OPS-against would be right in line with a league-average reliever. That's the beauty of this... I'm not suggesting that because his OPS is above-average thereby he's above average, I'm suggesting he's probably average because I'll confess one would expect a little bit of a nudge back to center. Regress his BABIP by 20 points and guess what? His OPS is still almost exactly league average.
My point here is that I've given some buffer zone to acknowledge there could still be a little bit of a movement back to center over time.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
One real quick point that I think might be causing some confusion.
All middle relievers are below average. They are the worst pitchers on a staff by definition. If they were even average, they would be starters or late inning relievers. Ondrusek is below average as pitchers go, but around average as middle relievers go.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
I'm not smart enough even if I had the time to do this, lol. However, I think that if someone did attempt this, they would find quite a few relievers on the list. I agree that #1 applies to most starters, but that's because if a pitcher's success is chronically dependent on having a low BABIP, he ain't starting, he's in the pen. But I'm guessing there are quite a few relievers whose sole talent is inducing weak contact.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
So I hate to have to bring this thread back, but from the last two games or so I'm getting the impression that Dusty is back to figuring Ondrusek's struggles are "water under the bridge" and that he is one of his top 7th/8th inning guys, dude.
“I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”
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