Logan Ondrusek Thread

[corkedbat]

If there was any truth to the rumor that the Reds could have had Victorino (or anyone else for that matter) for Ondrusek and turned it down, Walt made a big mistake. The scary thing is how many more times will Dusty run him out there in similar situtions? I'm hoping (Baker & Ondrusek) both are gone come spring training.

[Homer Bailey]

If there was any truth to the rumor that the Reds could have had Victorino (or anyone else for that matter) for Ondrusek and turned it down, Walt made a big mistake. The scary thing is how many more times will Dusty run him out there in similar situtions? I'm hoping both are gone come spring training.

I never believed that rumor. It made no sense.

[camisadelgolf]

If there was any truth to the rumor that the Reds could have had Victorino (or anyone else for that matter) for Ondrusek and turned it down, Walt made a big mistake. The scary thing is how many more times will Dusty run him out there in similar situtions? I'm hoping both are gone come spring training.

I would've done it just to get Ondrusek away from Dusty. They could've DFAed Victorino the next day for all I care. I'm only half-kidding, but what's obvious to me is this: Ondrusek is a 6th- or 7th-inning guy. I love the guy, but his good luck has been confused for skill. I'm not saying he doesn't deserve a roster spot--and to be honest, maybe he's getting too much flack from the haters--but Dusty has put too much faith in him.

[Homer Bailey]

I would've done it just to get Ondrusek away from Dusty. They could've DFAed Victorino the next day for all I care. I'm only half-kidding, but what's obvious to me is this: Ondrusek is a 6th- or 7th-inning guy. I love the guy, but his good luck has been confused for skill. I'm not saying he doesn't deserve a roster spot--and to be honest, maybe he's getting too much flack from the haters--but Dusty has put too much faith in him.

His results have not been THAT bad relative to his actual skill. It's the Dusty can't separate the two, so he and Dusty should be separated.

[757690]

No. No. No.

The argument was that he doesn't K anyone, and that he walks way too many. Meaning, he really doesn't have any true skills (relatively speaking). He has relied on an extremely lucky BABIP, and a HR/FB rate that was unsustainable. Not all that shocking to see him give up a decisive home run tonight. Only problem is he didn't have Stubbs to bail him out like he did in Houston.

The argument is that he doesn't have true skills. His critics were not correct "for the wrong reason". I'll say the same exact things about Logan than I would if he would have gotten Soriano to ground into a double play. He has zero elite skills. He's a below average reliever. He's below a replacement level reliever.

Logan is so bad, that his luck STILL hasn't truly regressed to the mean on his BABIP, and he's still found a way to blow recent games to the two worst teams in the NL. He's a AAA arm. I don't mean to harp on Logan, I really don't. He is who is he. The manager that keeps putting him in these ridiculous situations is the man to blame. Taking out your 2nd best reliever for your 2nd worst is completely and 100% unacceptable. Don't gimme the lefty vs. righty crap. It's unacceptable. I said it well before this happened that this needed to stop. I was mocked and ridiculed. Now, the blood is on your hands Dusty.

Oh, and I gave up on the game thread we had from last week where you were trying to make the case that Ondrusek could control his BABIP because I was out of town this weekend, but if you could show your work on that one, that would be great.

I have always agreed that Ondrusek wasn't that great, and didn't belong pitching in tight situations, just to be clear. In fact, in spring training I argued that he shouldn't make the team, but that was before injuries to Madson, Masset and Bray.

He still is a decent middle reliever, if used properly. He will give up a run around once every three appearances, which is fine for a middle reliever. His HR/FB rate has always been right near the league average, so I'm not sure what you're referring to about that. His walk rate was a bit high going into this year, but pretty standard for a middle reliever. It jumped up big time in the second half of the season, but really wasn't anything to worry about until then.

I don't know if you were arguing that Ondrusek couldn't sustain his HR/FB rate or that he had poor control earlier, but if you were, you would have been mistaken.

I agree he doesn't have elite skills, hence, he is a middle reliever. But he does have skills, enough to be a league average or better middle reliever. I agree that the biggest problem is that he is being used in the wrong situations.

[757690]

I never believed that rumor. It made no sense.

Absolutely a false rumor, as evident by what the Dodgers gave up to get Victorino.

[camisadelgolf]

Absolutely a false rumor, as evident by what the Dodgers gave up to get Victorino.

Definitely. The Phillies got one of the Dodgers' top prosects plus a reliever who is younger, better, under team control for a longer period, and cheaper over the next couple years than Ondrusek. I could see a deal involving Ondrusek and Victorino, but I doubt Ondrusek was the centerpiece.

[REDREAD]

I wonder if Logan is going to be with the team next year.

No one (that I know of) is arguing that Logan is a 8th inning guy.. but he's still a decent middle reliever. He probably has some decent trade value (although I doubt he would've gotten Victorino)

My guess is that with Masset and Bray in questionable health, Logan will be brought next year, even if that means Hoover in AAA. Walt seems to be a huge believer in "there's never enough pitching".. Not saying it is bad, just speculating.

I hope we can resign Simon next year as well.

Bray at this point seems to be a DFA candidate. Although maybe they plan to move Chapman to the rotation next year (Let's say Broxton is extended).. Then maybe Bray survives as the 2nd lefty in the pen.. I'd almost prefer to go fishing for a better LH reliever in the FA market though. Bray has a lifetime of struggles staying healthy.

[Tom Servo]

I believe we already have the core of a solid pen, and if we can resign Madson on the cheap...boy would I like that. I don't think jettisoning Ondrusek and Bray would have any negative impact.

Also, REDREAD, Simon is under Reds control until 2016.

[RedsManRick]

Blame Dusty. He has the best bullpen in the business and he continues to put Logan out there. Great God, the man has no judgment. As this point, I have no idea. To understand Baker is to be insane.

No kidding. You have a guy coming up who can't hit a break pitch but destroys fastballs and you bring in Ondrusek to replace Marshall?

You're not even getting a platoon advantage:

Marshall vR (career): .257/.327/.400
Ondrusek vR (career): .241/.321/.402

I just don't understand it. Ondrusek is CLEARLY the least effective reliever on this team. He's just managed to skirt by on a nice BABIP luck. Please, please stop using him in high leverage situations. And in general, it drives me nuts how much managers over-manage based on the outcome of one at bat.

[kaldaniels]

No kidding. You have a guy coming up who can't hit a break pitch but destroys fastballs and you bring in Ondrusek to replace Marshall?

You're not even getting a platoon advantage:

Marshall vR (career): .257/.327/.400
Ondrusek vR (career): .241/.321/.402

I just don't understand it. Ondrusek is CLEARLY the least effective reliever on this team. He's just managed to skirt by on a nice BABIP luck. Please, please stop using him in high leverage situations.

I totally agree with your "CLEARLY".

I don't have the knowledge base to put up a strong case to oppose someone on here who is using OPS-against to stick up for Logan. Now I have never seen that stat used to evaluate a pitcher...what are your thoughts on that being used.

[reds44]

No. No. No.

The argument was that he doesn't K anyone, and that he walks way too many. Meaning, he really doesn't have any true skills (relatively speaking). He has relied on an extremely lucky BABIP, and a HR/FB rate that was unsustainable. Not all that shocking to see him give up a decisive home run tonight. Only problem is he didn't have Stubbs to bail him out like he did in Houston.

The argument is that he doesn't have true skills. His critics were not correct "for the wrong reason". I'll say the same exact things about Logan than I would if he would have gotten Soriano to ground into a double play. He has zero elite skills. He's a below average reliever. He's below a replacement level reliever.

Logan is so bad, that his luck STILL hasn't truly regressed to the mean on his BABIP, and he's still found a way to blow recent games to the two worst teams in the NL. He's a AAA arm. I don't mean to harp on Logan, I really don't. He is who is he. The manager that keeps putting him in these ridiculous situations is the man to blame. Taking out your 2nd best reliever for your 2nd worst is completely and 100% unacceptable. Don't gimme the lefty vs. righty crap. It's unacceptable. I said it well before this happened that this needed to stop. I was mocked and ridiculed. Now, the blood is on your hands Dusty.

Oh, and I gave up on the game thread we had from last week where you were trying to make the case that Ondrusek could control his BABIP because I was out of town this weekend, but if you could show your work on that one, that would be great.

/thread

[REDREAD]

.

Also, REDREAD, Simon is under Reds control until 2016.

Wow, I didn't know that.. I figured the dude was old enough to be a potential FA.. That's great news.

[mattfeet]

Wow, I didn't know that.. I figured the dude was old enough to be a potential FA.. That's great news.

That's news to me as well, and wonderful news at that. What an outstanding pickup.

-Matt

[RedsManRick]

I totally agree with your "CLEARLY".

I don't have the knowledge base to put up a strong case to oppose someone on here who is using OPS-against to stick up for Logan. Now I have never seen that stat used to evaluate a pitcher...what are your thoughts on that being used.

That it both undervalues the harm caused by walks and completely ignores the coming BABIP regression.