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Thread: Logan Ondrusek Thread

  1. #106
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    Re: Logan Ondrusek Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus View Post
    Guy gives up a solo homer and this thread gets bumped. We should have a thread for every player to complain when something bad happens.


    Nice try, but the guy has given up home runs in 3 of his last 5 appearances. Season WAR is -0.5. His xFIP in high leverage situations for the season is 6.86 (not including last night). He's been terrible for the SEASON (not just last night).

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  3. #107
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    Re: Logan Ondrusek Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    I just find it odd that some are upset with a guy who has been an effective pitcher for his career. He gets the same venom as guys like Valdez and the like because of a metric that is supposedly more predictive than ERA. And maybe it is. But we shouldn't be acting like the guy has been blowing games for years.
    How has he been effective for his career? Unless you look at ERA, which we know is not an effective stat for relievers (unless you believe Rheal Cormier was an awesome reliever in 2006), how has he been good?

    His career line (not including last night)...

    163 IP / 6.19 K/9 / 3.91 BB/9 / xFIP 4.56 / -0.5 WAR

  4. #108
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Logan Ondrusek Thread

    Rheal Cormier mention!

    Rep points????

  5. #109
    Public Enemy #1 Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Logan Ondrusek Thread

    Dear god, please do not remind me of the 2006 Reds bullpen.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

  6. #110
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    Re: Logan Ondrusek Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    How has he been effective for his career? Unless you look at ERA, which we know is not an effective stat for relievers (unless you believe Rheal Cormier was an awesome reliever in 2006), how has he been good?

    His career line (not including last night)...

    163 IP / 6.19 K/9 / 3.91 BB/9 / xFIP 4.56 / -0.5 WAR
    Ondrusek isn't very good, but just for the record, WAR is absurdly inaccurate for relief pitchers. In fact, there really isn't one stat that does of good job of telling how effective relievers have been, not even FIP or xFIP. You have to look at a wide range of stats. However, there really aren't any stats that say he's doing a good job right now.

    It's rare for a middle reliever to have more than two good years, so this year shouldn't be that big of surprise.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  7. #111
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    Re: Logan Ondrusek Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Ondrusek isn't very good, but just for the record, WAR is absurdly inaccurate for relief pitchers. In fact, there really isn't one stat that does of good job of telling how effective relievers have been, not even FIP or xFIP. You have to look at a wide range of stats. However, there really aren't any stats that say he's doing a good job right now.

    It's rare for a middle reliever to have more than two good years, so this year shouldn't be that big of surprise.
    True, but at the same time he hasn't ever really had even one. It's a minor miracle, IMO, that his career ERA is as low as it is.

  8. #112
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    Re: Logan Ondrusek Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    Wild Jose walks .43 more guys per 9 than Ondrusek does, while striking out 3.27 more batters per 9.

    Regardless of where he is "used at this time," I still don't believe you've answered the question. Do you think he's the fourth best reliever on this team?
    Worst part is that sometimes lately, he's been used as the second best reliever on the team. (I'd lol that, but it's just too sad.)
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  9. #113
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    Re: Logan Ondrusek Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    True, but at the same time he hasn't ever really had even one. It's a minor miracle, IMO, that his career ERA is as low as it is.
    As middle relievers go, he's had two decent seasons. Didn't walk too many, threw a lot of groundballs, but now he does neither of those.

    He's throwing a little harder this year, which might be the problem. Guys like him need sink on the ball, and the harder you throw, the less sink you get. Or it just could be that he's throwing more crappy pitches.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  10. #114
    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Logan Ondrusek Thread

    FIP is actually based on past results. It shows that past ERA might be indicative of crap, not skill.

    ERA is essentially not relevant in this converasation.

    You can believe Ondrusek is as good as people thought Majewski was (in a comparable sample), but it's not a thing. Ondrusek is just an awful, awful pitcher. You can also be defensive of a thread bump, but at some point, you just need to accept that people are going to hate an awful players regardless of whether the hate is rational each and every time that the bad player screws up.

  11. #115
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Logan Ondrusek Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    Right. Because it's just the one home run that people are upset about.

    Here is Logan's FIP by month. It's pretty amazing.

    April: 2.37
    May: 6.29
    June: 5.80
    July: 4.29
    August: 8.82 (not sure if that includes tonight or not)
    For his career, he has an OPS against that's about 30 points less than an average reliever.

    At some point, it's going to be time to realize that some of what happens in play does matter for a pitcher, and especially for Ondrusek, he's still managing to get more guys out than many in his position. That counts for something whether you want to admit it or not.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  12. #116
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Logan Ondrusek Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    I just find it odd that some are upset with a guy who has been an effective pitcher for his career. He gets the same venom as guys like Valdez and the like because of a metric that is supposedly more predictive than ERA. And maybe it is. But we shouldn't be acting like the guy has been blowing games for years.
    And it's actually not that much more predictive.

    Depending on the dataset being used, FIP correlates to future ERA around .43 and ERA somewhere around .40. That's only a difference in variance of 18.4% to 16%. It's noteworthy, but it's not something that should provide for matter-of-fact conclusions.

    Interestingly, SIERA, which takes into account batted balls, is much more predictive than any of the defense-independent stats. To be fair, Ondrusek's SIERA isn't terribly flattering, but it's always been better than his FIP/xFIP which suggests his overall ERA performance isn't as far off as people assume.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  13. #117
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Logan Ondrusek Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    Wild Jose walks .43 more guys per 9 than Ondrusek does, while striking out 3.27 more batters per 9.

    Regardless of where he is "used at this time," I still don't believe you've answered the question. Do you think he's the fourth best reliever on this team?
    He is in the discussion. He is in the group behind the top 3. So I don't see him pitching in the highest of leverage situations come October as those situations should go to the top 3.

    I do find the Hoover love going over the top a bit.

  14. #118
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    Re: Logan Ondrusek Thread

    DP
    Last edited by edabbs44; 08-19-2012 at 07:20 AM. Reason: DP

  15. #119
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    Re: Logan Ondrusek Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    How has he been effective for his career? Unless you look at ERA, which we know is not an effective stat for relievers (unless you believe Rheal Cormier was an awesome reliever in 2006), how has he been good?

    His career line (not including last night)...

    163 IP / 6.19 K/9 / 3.91 BB/9 / xFIP 4.56 / -0.5 WAR
    Can I ask why we aren't allowed to discuss ERA for a reliever?

  16. #120
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Logan Ondrusek Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Can I ask why we aren't allowed to discuss ERA for a reliever?
    Even if you value ERA as a stat, it's a pretty lousy one for evaluating the past performance of a reliever, since it doesn't include inherited runners, which is one of the most important areas for understanding the past performance of a reliever, imo.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.


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