Originally Posted by Brutus
Nice try, but the guy has given up home runs in 3 of his last 5 appearances. Season WAR is -0.5. His xFIP in high leverage situations for the season is 6.86 (not including last night). He's been terrible for the SEASON (not just last night).
How has he been effective for his career? Unless you look at ERA, which we know is not an effective stat for relievers (unless you believe Rheal Cormier was an awesome reliever in 2006), how has he been good?
His career line (not including last night)...
163 IP / 6.19 K/9 / 3.91 BB/9 / xFIP 4.56 / -0.5 WAR
Rheal Cormier mention!
Rep points????
Dear god, please do not remind me of the 2006 Reds bullpen.
“I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”
Ondrusek isn't very good, but just for the record, WAR is absurdly inaccurate for relief pitchers. In fact, there really isn't one stat that does of good job of telling how effective relievers have been, not even FIP or xFIP. You have to look at a wide range of stats. However, there really aren't any stats that say he's doing a good job right now.
It's rare for a middle reliever to have more than two good years, so this year shouldn't be that big of surprise.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
True, but at the same time he hasn't ever really had even one. It's a minor miracle, IMO, that his career ERA is as low as it is.
Worst part is that sometimes lately, he's been used as the second best reliever on the team. (I'd lol that, but it's just too sad.)
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
As middle relievers go, he's had two decent seasons. Didn't walk too many, threw a lot of groundballs, but now he does neither of those.
He's throwing a little harder this year, which might be the problem. Guys like him need sink on the ball, and the harder you throw, the less sink you get. Or it just could be that he's throwing more crappy pitches.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
FIP is actually based on past results. It shows that past ERA might be indicative of crap, not skill.
ERA is essentially not relevant in this converasation.
You can believe Ondrusek is as good as people thought Majewski was (in a comparable sample), but it's not a thing. Ondrusek is just an awful, awful pitcher. You can also be defensive of a thread bump, but at some point, you just need to accept that people are going to hate an awful players regardless of whether the hate is rational each and every time that the bad player screws up.
For his career, he has an OPS against that's about 30 points less than an average reliever.
At some point, it's going to be time to realize that some of what happens in play does matter for a pitcher, and especially for Ondrusek, he's still managing to get more guys out than many in his position. That counts for something whether you want to admit it or not.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
And it's actually not that much more predictive.
Depending on the dataset being used, FIP correlates to future ERA around .43 and ERA somewhere around .40. That's only a difference in variance of 18.4% to 16%. It's noteworthy, but it's not something that should provide for matter-of-fact conclusions.
Interestingly, SIERA, which takes into account batted balls, is much more predictive than any of the defense-independent stats. To be fair, Ondrusek's SIERA isn't terribly flattering, but it's always been better than his FIP/xFIP which suggests his overall ERA performance isn't as far off as people assume.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
He is in the discussion. He is in the group behind the top 3. So I don't see him pitching in the highest of leverage situations come October as those situations should go to the top 3.
I do find the Hoover love going over the top a bit.
DP
Last edited by edabbs44; 08-19-2012 at 07:20 AM. Reason: DP
Can I ask why we aren't allowed to discuss ERA for a reliever?
Even if you value ERA as a stat, it's a pretty lousy one for evaluating the past performance of a reliever, since it doesn't include inherited runners, which is one of the most important areas for understanding the past performance of a reliever, imo.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
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