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Thread: Anyone want to talk stocks and retirement?

  1. #91
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Anyone want to talk stocks and retirement?

    Quote Originally Posted by mdccclxix View Post
    True, I know that diversification is recommended, but at the same time it can weigh you down, right? This goes up, that goes down. But picking a stock that has a solid reputation and a solid future in terms of where the world is going, that is also on a down beat, could pay off if you're patient. That said, a) I'm young and not risk averse b) I set up a fake portfolio at google finance in 2009 when everything was down and went 9 for 10 in picking winners, so that's not likely to be as easy as it was then.
    May we ask what stock this is?

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  3. #92
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Anyone want to talk stocks and retirement?

    Quote Originally Posted by oneupper View Post
    You know, this goes totally "against the book" on investing, but it is something that as a young investor you can afford to take that chance on.
    If there is something that looks "so right" that you can put a big chunk of your investable assets into it, do it. You'll kick yourself later if you didn't.

    The reason is that you can expect to continue to earn (and save for retirement) for the next 30 years. As you age, you can become more conservative. Want to take a shot? Now's the time.

    I'm in my 50s now, and most of my clients are also, but in my 20s and 30s I took a number of flyers. Some paid off spectacularly (I made out like a bandit in the Venezuelan stock market in 1990-1 and turned my meager savings into a fully paid condo) and others not so much (I joined a group trying to take over a ceramic tile producer...crappy group, crappy industry, crappy company, crappy result...). And lots of stuff in between...

    Thing is...if you have skills to fall back on and manageable responsibilities , you can be looser with your investments when you're young.

    And...you can't tell anyone I said any of this, the investment advisory community would kick me out immediately.
    Don't you think the investment advisory community would be better off if they were more brutally honest? In all the books and magazines I read you hear pretty much the same thing over and over again. Diversify your portfolio, make sure all your eggs aren't in the same basket, etc. While I agree with many of those notions, I think you need to have some of your portfolio with speculative stocks. IMO its much easier with the discount brokers because trades cost anywhere from $5-$10 as opposed to $75-$100 with a full service brokerage. You can take a flier on a stock and if it tanks you can move out pretty easily.

    There is a ton of money to be made out there, but often times it takes a great deal of risk in order to make money. I am young and for the most part I prefer a dividend portfolio approach but I also put a certain percentage aside for more risky ventures.

  4. #93
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    Re: Anyone want to talk stocks and retirement?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Don't you think the investment advisory community would be better off if they were more brutally honest? In all the books and magazines I read you hear pretty much the same thing over and over again. Diversify your portfolio, make sure all your eggs aren't in the same basket, etc. While I agree with many of those notions, I think you need to have some of your portfolio with speculative stocks. IMO its much easier with the discount brokers because trades cost anywhere from $5-$10 as opposed to $75-$100 with a full service brokerage. You can take a flier on a stock and if it tanks you can move out pretty easily.

    There is a ton of money to be made out there, but often times it takes a great deal of risk in order to make money. I am young and for the most part I prefer a dividend portfolio approach but I also put a certain percentage aside for more risky ventures.
    The vast majority of people can't pick stocks. Average people trail the market and mutual funds typically by 5-15% depending on the index. I think it is fine for people to have a small portion to trade for themsevles, but speaking broadly and generally much people are better served by the old diversification approach.

    That said I really like oneupper's post. I think if you're are young and have some cash there is something to be said for "going for it". It just isn't good investing.

  5. #94
    Member medford's Avatar
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    Re: Anyone want to talk stocks and retirement?

    Well one thing that can go wrong with waiting for a stock to rebound to its high, aside from the obviously already pointed out "it may never get back there", is that you could be missing out on a bunch of other opportunities along the way.

    However, your line of thinking is on the right track (in my mind). The key questions to ask, is why is a stock off its high? What are the chances it returns to its high? Many stocks are knocked signficantly off their heigh by no reason of their own. How many stocks were cut in half in the recent market despite the company continuing to do solid business? How many stocks get hurt simply b/c a competitor is struggling in a fashion that may not relate to their company? Find opportunities and try to take advantage of them. Not all are going to work, so spread things around a bit, but its an approach that has well for guys like Ben Graham and Warren Buffett. If those 2 guys are proponents of something, its worth listening to.

  6. #95
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Anyone want to talk stocks and retirement?

    Well, going back to my philosphy of Dividend Growth Investing.... I had two more of my stocks raise their dividends this week. TICC (a business development company) and NNN (a property REIT).

  7. #96
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Anyone want to talk stocks and retirement?

    Quote Originally Posted by JaxRed View Post
    May we ask what stock this is?
    I don't have any in mind right now, but I'll share my fake google portfolio I created during the downturn in 2009. I haven't done anything to it since. I focused mainly on companies I thought had a good chance during a recession, which were cheap entertainment (TV, Internet) and car repair (people making a dollar stretch). I didn't think of Walmart and McDonalds, but I think they did well too.


    Actually, the last 4 lines were added after the initial batch. The blank one is (was) Kendal, a Cincinnati company a relative had stock in that I was watching for them. Not a real pick. The P&G stock was along those same lines, a family stock, not a real pick. The last two were a re-visitation of my effort to pick a single stock. This time I was just looking for a cheap one that was probably way off it's high. I had no clear signals guiding me, in fact the only thing I remember was ignoring the fact that Books-a million was doubling down on paper book stores instead of internet based ideas. They had the cash to do it. It's not working I guess. That was probably 18 months ago.

    Anyway, the take away is really that anybody could have made a lot of great picks in 2009, sure, but there were a lot of solid companies that were undervalued and if you could find them now, just one really, that could simplify things.

    One other thing I've tracked is Fedex/UPS stocks, which this time of year (come to think of it) are usually down a bit in price before they rise in the fall and winter for Christmas. Looks like that trend is flat right now or still coming, nevertheless those stocks are too expensive for me.

  8. #97
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Anyone want to talk stocks and retirement?

    Viacom, Time Warner, Comcast AND CBS?
    You should be getting free cable SOMEWHERE.
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

    http://dalmady.blogspot.com

  9. #98
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Anyone want to talk stocks and retirement?

    Quote Originally Posted by oneupper View Post
    Viacom, Time Warner, Comcast AND CBS?
    You should be getting free cable SOMEWHERE.
    It's a fake portfolio. He gets fake free cable. !!

  10. #99
    Little Reds BandWagon Reds Nd2's Avatar
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    Re: Anyone want to talk stocks and retirement?

    Quote Originally Posted by gonelong View Post
    Researched, then purchased this a few days after you posted it. Sold today for ~14.5% gain (~77.5% annualized). ($20.94/$23.97)

    I use a few charts to assist me on the timing of buy/sells (not what to buy/sell, just the timing) and I believe they are due for a 10%+ pullback and will be hoping to see them around 22.00 to evaluate for re-entry. I suspect this means I will miss the next dividend payment in August which is not really what I want. Time will tell.

    GL

    /thanks for the idea
    I think using technical analysis could be useful in finding entry/exit points, even if the overall strategy is buy and hold. My problem is that I'm not very educated on this. What charts do you use specifically and do you have any websites that you recommend for further study? Do you chart individual stocks or just the indexes?
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.

  11. #100
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    Re: Anyone want to talk stocks and retirement?

    Quote Originally Posted by JaxRed View Post
    Well, going back to my philosphy of Dividend Growth Investing.... I had two more of my stocks raise their dividends this week. TICC (a business development company) and NNN (a property REIT).
    Jax - a strategy I tell my dad to use near retirement may be to buy dividend stocks, sell call options, and buy puts with the proceeds, this would band volatility.

    Example if buying 1000 shares of Fifth Third (FITB) at 13.82, an annual dividend of $320 would be earned. 1000 Call options for Jan 17,2014 could be sold for $830 at $17 / share (capping the profits at $17 over the next year+) then with the proceeds put options could be bought at $10/share for $980. This would mean that the most you could gain is $3.20 / share and the most you could lose is $3.82 / share or less than 30% over the next year. If you aren't worried about the stock tanking selling options can be a way to generate income on the stock as well.

  12. #101
    Score Early, Score Often gonelong's Avatar
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    Re: Anyone want to talk stocks and retirement?

    Quote Originally Posted by Reds Nd2 View Post
    I think using technical analysis could be useful in finding entry/exit points, even if the overall strategy is buy and hold. My problem is that I'm not very educated on this. What charts do you use specifically and do you have any websites that you recommend for further study? Do you chart individual stocks or just the indexes?
    The first thing to know is that technical analysis is only as good as the guy interpreting it. (Similar to a baseball scout, some are just better than others)

    The second thing you need to understand, is what are you hoping to get from the charts. Are you looking to find a tech stock that is primed for a run? A long time dividend payer at a low? The charts you may use to track entries/exits for those kinds of opportunities are very different.

    Once you understand what you are looking for, look for the indicators you think will give you this info. I like to look at stocks that pay a dividend and are beat down. I am looking for a turnaround so I can buy in early.

    Here is a good place to start understanding some basic charting/indicators. I would suggest starting with SMA and plot (3,13,50 for shorter term, and 20,40,200 for longer term) and check out some stocks you follow to see what it may/may not have told you.

    I like to browse through these and see how other people implement them.

    The last thing to be aware of is time. Some people chart in minutes, others in days, others in weeks, months, years, or decades. If you use other peoples charts to make decisions, you will often be very wrong. If you use a chart and don't do due dilligence, you will very often be wrong.

    I use them purely to decide when to buy sell, not what to buy sell.

    GL

    /That's my opinion, and probably exactly worth what I am charging for it.

  13. #102
    Little Reds BandWagon Reds Nd2's Avatar
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    Re: Anyone want to talk stocks and retirement?

    Thanks for the link Gonelong. I'll definantly check it out.

    Anyone use the screens at AAII? I use to play around with them some and have been thinking lately about resubscribing.

    I've always made the most money by using common sense to trade. I've always lost the most money by applying the same technique.
    "...You just have a wider lens than one game."
    --Former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky, on why he didn't fly Josh Hamilton to Colorado for one game.

    "...its money well-spent. Don't screw around with your freedom."
    --Roy Tucker, on why you need to lawyer up when you find yourself swimming with sharks.

  14. #103
    Member mdccclxix's Avatar
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    Re: Anyone want to talk stocks and retirement?

    http://www.lendingclub.com/public/ho...g-works.action

    Anyone with stories about peer lending? I found this company. The returns look pretty good.

  15. #104
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Anyone want to talk stocks and retirement?

    That's interesting. I'll read up on it.

    Edit: Guess I'll stop reading. Florida and Ohio residents aren't eligible



    http://www.lendingclub.com/kb/index....ry&EntryID=113
    Last edited by JaxRed; 08-14-2012 at 02:33 PM.

  16. #105
    Danger is my business! oneupper's Avatar
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    Re: Anyone want to talk stocks and retirement?

    Quote Originally Posted by JaxRed View Post
    That's interesting. I'll read up on it.

    Edit: Guess I'll stop reading. Florida and Ohio residents aren't eligible



    http://www.lendingclub.com/kb/index....ry&EntryID=113
    What about Prosper.com? I signed up with them a couple years back, just to look. Never lent any money.
    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."

    http://dalmady.blogspot.com


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