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Thread: Mat Latos article on Fangraphs

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    Mat Latos article on Fangraphs

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...e-and-command/

    Why three straight fastballs? Im not sure, but whats also pretty clear is that Latos has altered his repertoire since coming over to Cincinnati. In his brief career, he has typically used his slider about 27% of the time. It has historically been his best pitch at just over a run above average per 100 pitches in both 2010 and 2011 and generating a whiff rate at about 24%. But hes dropped his usage of the slider by about 10% in 2012, with increased reliance on his change:
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    Re: Mat Latos article on Fangraphs

    There may be a lot of truth to what Barr is saying, but I think it's premature to say it's "pretty clear" he's altered his repertoire based on throwing 10% fewer sliders. I don't see that being clear since Latos has only thrown 292 total pitches thus far this season.
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    Re: Mat Latos article on Fangraphs

    His average fastball speed has also decreased from the past couple of years as well.
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    Re: Mat Latos article on Fangraphs

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    His average fastball speed has also decreased from the past couple of years as well.
    He's averaging 93 MPH this year. He's averaged 93.4 MPH for his career. So, no, not really.

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    Re: Mat Latos article on Fangraphs

    I think it's obvious that he done good tonight, regardless. Spoken in true West Virginian among the common people .
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    Re: Mat Latos article on Fangraphs

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRedsFan View Post
    I think it's obvious that he done good tonight, regardless. Spoken in true West Virginian among the common people .
    Me thinks Latos is going to be juuuust fine.

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    Re: Mat Latos article on Fangraphs

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    He's averaging 93 MPH this year. He's averaged 93.4 MPH for his career. So, no, not really.
    Every single year, his velocity has been down from the year before. It may have averaged 93.4 in his career but that is down from previous years when he was averaging a faster fast ball. I think last year or the year before last, for example, he averaged 94 mph on his fast ball. 93 MPH is still good but I think there are some warning signs there. He simply does not have the electric fast ball as he had earlier in his career.
    Last edited by MikeThierry; 04-25-2012 at 12:14 AM.
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    Re: Mat Latos article on Fangraphs

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    Every single year, his velocity has been down from the year before. It may have averaged 93.4 in his career but that is down from previous years when he was averaging a faster fast ball. I think last year or the year before last, for example, he averaged 94 mph on his fast ball. 93 MPH is still good but I think there are some warning signs there. He simply does not have the electric fast ball as he had earlier in his career.
    He only pitched 50 innings his first season. So the drop in velocity from year one to year two may have been a sample issue or it may have been as simple as pitching an entire year's workload. The second year could be any number of things. But losing 1 MPH in a year isn't really that big of a red flag. Some pitchers intentionally use a different grip which alone explains the velocity.

    You're really, really grasping at straws.
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    Re: Mat Latos article on Fangraphs

    Latos was regularly hitting 93-95 MPH tonight. I sure didn't see any issues with his velocity.
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    Re: Mat Latos article on Fangraphs

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    He only pitched 50 innings his first season. So the drop in velocity from year one to year two may have been a sample issue or it may have been as simple as pitching an entire year's workload. The second year could be any number of things. But losing 1 MPH in a year isn't really that big of a red flag. Some pitchers intentionally use a different grip which alone explains the velocity.

    You're really, really grasping at straws.
    You're right. Losing 1 mph off the fastball in one year isn't that much of a red flag. However, losing velocity off the fast ball multiple years in a row seems to me, at least, to be an alarming trend. Maybe Latos velocity will come back to form this year. Who knows.
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    Re: Mat Latos article on Fangraphs

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    You're right. Losing 1 mph off the fastball in one year isn't that much of a red flag. However, losing velocity off the fast ball multiple years in a row seems to me, at least, to be an alarming trend. Maybe Latos velocity will come back to form this year. Who knows.
    It was only two years though. And like I said, the first year, he went from 50 innings to 184 innings. So that can easily be assumed that the drop was simply a matter of pitching a full season. That's very common for young pitchers to wear down in velocity toward the end of a year.

    This year, his velocity is up slightly over last year.

    The point is that two years hardly is a trend.
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    Re: Mat Latos article on Fangraphs

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    Every single year, his velocity has been down from the year before. It may have averaged 93.4 in his career but that is down from previous years when he was averaging a faster fast ball. I think last year or the year before last, for example, he averaged 94 mph on his fast ball. 93 MPH is still good but I think there are some warning signs there. He simply does not have the electric fast ball as he had earlier in his career.
    You're reaching. The fastest his fastball has ever been over a full season is 93.7 MPH. The lowest it has ever been over a full season is 92.8 MPH. Less than a 1 MPH variance.

    You want to see pitchers with velocity drops, see Jimenez, Santana, and (gradually) Lincecum. There is basically zero correlation to Latos' fastball speed.

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    Re: Mat Latos article on Fangraphs

    This is actually one of my biggest pet peeves with fangraphs. It's a great sight because it's saber-oriented and provides a wealth of statistical information easily at the fingertips but in an effort to provide daily content so many of the articles suffer from relying upon inappropriately small sample sizes.
    "This isnt stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Mat Latos article on Fangraphs

    Quote Originally Posted by Homer Bailey View Post
    You're reaching. The fastest his fastball has ever been over a full season is 93.7 MPH. The lowest it has ever been over a full season is 92.8 MPH. Less than a 1 MPH variance.

    You want to see pitchers with velocity drops, see Jimenez, Santana, and (gradually) Lincecum. There is basically zero correlation to Latos' fastball speed.
    Definitely agree with you on this.

    I watched the game last night and he was routinely hitting 94-95 mph on his fastball. I thought the problem was that both he and Cain were being squeezed by the everchanging tightening of the strike zone by the ump behind the plate by the 5th through 7th innings. On a side note, it hit me funny when Arredondo came in and struck out the last batter on a pitch on the inside corner that the ump wasn't giving to Cain or Latos all night. It was like the strike zone changed again. Has to be frustrating for a pitcher to deal with that.

    The other problem I saw for Latos was that he didn't have much confidence in his other pitches last night. His breaking ball and changeup were spending alot of time hitting the dirt, so he was reluctant to throw them, especially in the 6th inning as the bases began to load. Gotta hand it to the middle of the Giants order too...........they all battled and were tough outs.
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    Re: Mat Latos article on Fangraphs

    Chapman's velocity has dropped from 99-98 mph....what shall we do?!!!


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