Does OPS count now? Or is it only when it fits your pre-concocted narrative?Originally Posted by jojo
Or OB from a guy who's made a career out of getting on base.
Does OPS count now? Or is it only when it fits your pre-concocted narrative?
Or OB from a guy who's made a career out of getting on base.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
He's lost over 100 OPS points since he turned 35. He's 38 now. He's not going to get better.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
If he maintains the status quo, he will be far and away better than Ludwick has been for the last 3 years.
Offensively. Factor in defense, and they are very similar.
Abreu would be a fine guy to replace Harris, as long as he never takes the field. But with 12 pitchers, the team can't afford that luxury.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
My narrative? Oh come on...stop with the bias BS. This isn't my narrative. Like sands through the hourglass, so are the days of Abreu's lives....
It happens-as you said-"he's aging (as are we all)". It's just he plays baseball and "aged, no gloved platoon bat" cream is a difficult ingredient to add to an NL chowder even if it weren't showing signs of turning.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
He's a gamble, one that is a long shot to provide much over replacement level production.
Ludwick at least has a glove.
I'd target someone else from the Angels. A Frazier for Mark Trumbo deal might work for both teams, as the Angels are built for right now and Trumbo is an extra part. Even better, perhaps the Reds could grab Kendrys Morales and stick him in LF. (He'll hit eventually, but it takes time to remember after a year and a half off.)
Chris Denorfia from San Diego would also be a nice player to target. He's got a nice seven-year major league history, a very good glove, and is a gamer. A swap of Chris Heisey and Deno makes sense for all parties. (Or the Reds could always deal Stubbs for something better.)
I keep hearing this over and over. I don't see it. He's average - at best.
I haven't seen Abreu play defense, but I do realize he's 38. Heisey can play LF for us when we need the defense and against LHP.
Looking at the defensive stats, it is apparent that Abreu no longer has excellent range in the OF, however it also doesn't look like he will kill you out there (i.e. Dunn, Gomes)
When you completely ignore a pile of stats indicating Abreu had an above average year at the plate in 2011, that's pre-concocted narrative.
When you then use one of those stats in a later post to assert that he's irretrievably lost it, that's pre-concocted narrative. [Two quick points about Abreu's 2012 OPS: 1) 27 PAs is a preposterously small sample size, 2) His OPS is still better than Albert Pujols'.]
When you try to insist the guy can't run anymore, when anyone who's seen him play in recent years could tell he's still got good wheels, that's pre-concocted narrative.
It is possible Abreu has gone around the bend (he had a miserable ST). I don't think anyone has said otherwise. Yet you've made no case that it's impossible he could replicate the .360+ OB he's posted against RHPs the previous two seasons. Given that the Reds have a glaring need for some OB out of LF, that Abreu is there for anyone who wants to grab him and that Chris Heisey can be sent to AAA, the possibility that he could merits consideration.
This is a classic case of where the team ought to work Abreu out and trust the advice of the scouts who see him.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
When one ignores a trend that resulted in a player getting his walking papers, it's a pre-concocted narrative.
The case is pretty simple. As you concede, he's aging so his bat is a risk. He is also a substantial defensive liability. His remaining potential strength-leverage of platoon splits is actually a skillset that limits his usefullness to a very narrow role.
Essentially to give him at bats, he also has to log defensive innings. I've already illustrated why this is a problem by putting numbers on the issue (using numbers you'd likely agree with because they essentially said he could maintain his platoon advantage and didn't deviate from the way his performance defined his defense before he quit having to play defense). As an option, he's not likely to be impactful.
If the goal is to meaningfully upgrade the roster, Abreu is most likely wasted motion that uses a spot that could potentially go to someone who does represent an upgrade.
Scouts don't think he can play defense anymore. This is pretty much a classic case of a guy aging into a limited role with an AL team.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
No one's ignoring that. However, he still had a plus bat vs. RHPs as recently as last year. You seem almost desperate to gloss over that fact.
A) You need to brush up on your language skills. I didn't "concede" that he's aging, which raises question marks about his ability to maintain his historical skill set. I walked into this discussion fully cognizant of it and stating as much. I can't "concede" something I thought in the first place.
B) Jonny Gomes was a substantial defensive liability in 2010. In fact, he was about as bad a LF as you're ever going to see. Yet the Reds still managed to put together a quality defense. Apparently Stubbs, Bruce and a quality IF can cover for a bad LF. I only point this out because it happened and it's a direct parallel.
C) When did the single most important component to run scoring become a narrow role? Allow me to go on record here. I like players who get on base. I especially like it when that OB comes with a little power or speed. Abreu's power was in retreat last season (though a park/division switch would surely help on that front), but he still moves pretty well. I readily recognize he's no sure thing, but let's not pretend something essential (OB at the top of the lineup) is a narrow role. Anyone who could produce that OB would be a vital cog on this team.
No duh. Please refer to the above note about Gomes for why LF defensive shenanigans will not cause the Reds to burst into flames, engulfing the entire Cincinnati metropolitan area in an uncontrollable inferno.
I respectfully said nothing about your impact analysis.
Like who? Name me the kid in the minors the Reds could tab right now who could help this team offensively in the OF. Name the player they can grab off the waiver wire who might turn that .186 OB in the leadoff spot into something respectable.
I'm all for longer term solutions and surer things. Might be two months before you can trade for one of them.
So you'll have to excuse me if I think it's worth a flyer to have a career OB machine like Abreu work out for some scouts and then (if the scouts like what they see) go to AAA to see if he can get his stick working.
And how exactly do you waste motion on a waiver wire pickup? Seriously, is Walt Jocketty a sumo who must conserve every ounce of bio energy for furious bursts in the ring? Would it use up the Reds' predetermined allotment of moves for the season?
Or would it just be a team with a clear need investigating its options? Because I'm pretty sure that's what it would be.
Really? Is that what the scouts are telling you? All the scouts that you've polled on this particular matter?
Last edited by M2; 05-02-2012 at 02:16 PM.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Here, here!Really? Is that what the scouts are telling you? All the scouts that you've polled on this particular matter?
I'm in favor of giving Abreu a look-see. It's hard to imagine a scenario where Dusty bats him leadoff, however.
"I can make all the stadiums rock."
-Air Supply
Lead-off against 70% of the league's pitchers. That doesn't sound "narrow".
Here's the spitball tree I came up with for why he might hit Abreu leadoff:
- If they bring in Abreu and play him regularly (which assumes lots of things that aren't givens), it would clearly be to give the offense a shot in the arm.
- They're not going to bat their offensive shot in the arm at the bottom of the lineup.
- The #3 hole is filled by Votto and Abreu is not a big power/RBI guy to hold down a 4-6 slot.
- Dusty might want to hit Abreu 2nd, but Cozart has done well there and Dusty doesn't like to hit LHBs back-to-back.
- Hitting Abreu leadoff would separate his LHBs and Abreu was stealing 20+ bases as recently as last year. Abreu also makes pitchers throw a boatload of pitches, which surely indulges Dusty's old school instincts on what makes a good leadoff hitter.
So, other important questions aside, if Abreu were to get a starting gig with the team, I actually think there's a decent possibility he could hit leadoff. In general, I think any LHB bat brought in to help the offense is liable to hit leadoff (provided it's not a straight up power hitter).
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
How do you figure anything was glossed over especially since the hypothetical used to illustrate my argument for him likely having little impact assumed a plus bat (+5 runs)?
I don't care about semantics. Either way you acknowledge that aging is known to impact production and there is ample evidence of aging in his recent production. A logical extension then is that it's likely his performance will continue to decline and it's not unreasonable to assume that this decline would also impact his OBP against right-handed pitchers. Clearly you're banking on this not to happen to a significant degree.
Gomes was a significantly below average player as a Red too. Thats a very low bar for an upgrade.
The problem is that he effects runs scored/runs allowed in more ways then just his OBP against righties. His entire skillset effects the Reds fortunes. He's useful in a very narrow role and his strength in that role neccessitates his biggest weakness also come to bare so that in the grand sum, he's not really the impact a focus upon the OBP its hoped he could provide against righties might suggest. And again, we don't know how much that OBP skill has deteriorated but we do have a good sense of the value of his weakness.
Hyberbole can't obfuscate the underlying point-his defense impacts his value...if he contributes 5 runs with his bat while giving up 5 runs with his glove, the impact of his platoon advantage evaporates just like a mirage....
It's obvious why.
The premise that Abreu would bat lead off is MUCH less credible then the premise that his OBP skills will degrade because of the aging process.
Lets ignore that he's historically been a bad defender even in his prime. Roll out the hoards of scouts who are praising his defense and think he is a viable option in the outfield....
Again assuming "a best case scenario" that Abreu is used strictly against righties, experiences only a very benovolent effect of age on his OBP against righties, and is only as bad defensively as he was the last few years he actually played defense, his impact is a push unless like Gomes in 2010 he has 1 month of grande, unrepeatable randomness that dwarfs his other 4 months. I don't think Jocketty is a sumo, an orca, a martian, or a hermit crab living in a world that really is just a molecule inside a grander universe that really is just another molecule inside an even grander universe.
I think Jocketty can do better than randomness and zero sum games.
Last edited by jojo; 05-02-2012 at 02:49 PM.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
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