If he keeps it up, when should Billy Hamilton be promoted?

[OGB]

Message board sports fans are a notoriously impatient and fickle lot, so I'm just curious what people's thoughts are on promoting Billy if he continues to terrorize hitter friendly high A. Of course, there is the issue of Gregorious ahead of him in Pensacola, but he's likely looking at a promotion to AAA at some point this year, most likely sooner rather than later.
If nothing else, I think Hamilton would really help this club in a late season run as a September call up, just on pinch running ability alone.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Way too soon for a Sept. callup IMO. I think it'll be one heck of a stretch to see him reach AAA this season too. If he keeps it up, I'd promote him to AA around mid-season. That'll give us half a season to see if he's ready for AAA to start 2013.

[OGB]

Way too soon for a Sept. callup IMO. I think it'll be one heck of a stretch to see him reach AAA this season too. If he keeps it up, I'd promote him to AA around mid-season. That'll give us half a season to see if he's ready for AAA to start 2013.

I'm curious why you think this. If the Reds are trying to lock up a playoff spot, isn't the whole point of call ups to add depth and players who can help put you over the top?
If you're out of contention I don't think you call him up, but if the postseason is on the line, he could be crucial to helping you win ball games.

[_Sir_Charles_]

I'm curious why you think this. If the Reds are trying to lock up a playoff spot, isn't the whole point of call ups to add depth and players who can help put you over the top?
If you're out of contention I don't think you call him up, but if the postseason is on the line, he could be crucial to helping you win ball games.

Because there's no way he'll be ready to face MLB pitching yet. None. And a kid like that needs as many reps as he can get. He also needs to have his confidence kept high too. Pushing him too much too early is just asking for trouble. I'd much rather have him facing guys his age or slightly above his age instead of sitting on the Reds bench and being put to sleep. I understand that he's fast and he's excellent at stealing bases, but you don't want to call the kid up just to showcase his speed. We want him to develop his OTHER skills and not turn him into a one trick pony. Just my 2 cents.

[OGB]

Because there's no way he'll be ready to face MLB pitching yet. None. And a kid like that needs as many reps as he can get. He also needs to have his confidence kept high too. Pushing him too much too early is just asking for trouble. I'd much rather have him facing guys his age or slightly above his age instead of sitting on the Reds bench and being put to sleep. I understand that he's fast and he's excellent at stealing bases, but you don't want to call the kid up just to showcase his speed. We want him to develop his OTHER skills and not turn him into a one trick pony. Just my 2 cents.

C'mon dude, are you even reading what I'm typing? I was referring to a September call up, not a big league promotion, as in his minor league season is over.
I alson never once referred to him doing anything other than pinch running. If you're fighting for your playoff life the last few weeks of the year, I absolutely want him to be one of the 4 to 8 guys that get added to the bench.

[dougdirt]

C'mon dude, are you even reading what I'm typing? I was referring to a September call up, not a big league promotion, as in his minor league season is over.
I alson never once referred to him doing anything other than pinch running. If you're fighting for your playoff life the last few weeks of the year, I absolutely want him to be one of the 4 to 8 guys that get added to the bench.

Then you burn an option in 2013 for absolutely no reason.

[OGB]

That fifth option was supposed to say beginning of August. I realize there's no point in moving him to Pensacola at the end of their season/during their playoffs.

Also, the first 5 options imply a move to AA. I guess you can interpret option 7 however you want.

[Vottomatic]

I'm really shocked at his power numbers. Thought he'd be simply a slap hitter with amazing speed. Seems like he's becoming more well rounded. Wish they'd move him to LF. Kid might be the future leadoff hitter this team has needed for years.

[WrongVerb]

I'm really shocked at his power numbers. Thought he'd be simply a slap hitter with amazing speed. Seems like he's becoming more well rounded. Wish they'd move him to LF. Kid might be the future leadoff hitter this team has needed for years.

Remember that he's playing in a bandbox at the moment in Bakersfield. That will enhance anyone's power numbers.

[dougdirt]

Remember that he's playing in a bandbox at the moment in Bakersfield. That will enhance anyone's power numbers.

Actually, Hamilton is the kind of hitter that it doesn't have as much on as others, because he isn't hitting home runs. Now, the thinner air does come into play some. Here are the different park factors for the Cal League:

TM	         RC	H	2B	HR	BB	K
Bakersfield	1.02	1.00	1.07	1.08	1.01	1.00
High Desert	1.19	1.08	1.05	1.31	1.03	0.99
Inland Empire	0.90	0.96	0.95	0.81	0.98	1.00
Lake Elsinore	0.93	0.98	0.97	0.81	1.00	0.97
Lancaster	1.10	1.04	1.02	1.23	1.02	0.96
Modesto	        0.96	1.00	1.10	0.74	1.02	1.00
Rancho C.	0.96	0.98	0.98	0.95	0.99	1.00
San Jose	0.96	0.99	0.99	1.01	0.94	1.01
Stockton	1.00	0.98	0.91	1.16	1.02	1.05
Visalia	        1.00	0.98	1.01	1.06	1.02	1.04

The league overall boosts home runs and doubles. Bakersfield in general really boosts doubles and home runs, but Hamilton isn't going to see the benefits from the home runs. Of course, with his speed, he will see a boost in both doubles and triples thanks to his home ballpark and several other in the league are pretty double friendly as well.

[dougdirt]

I think he will spend most of his time in Bakersfield. With Didi/Greene being prospects as well ahead of him in the middle infield, then guys on the 40 man roster playing in AAA, promotions may not be easy to come by.

[Kc61]

I think he will spend most of his time in Bakersfield. With Didi/Greene being prospects as well ahead of him in the middle infield, then guys on the 40 man roster playing in AAA, promotions may not be easy to come by.

IMO the Reds don't see Hamilton as just another prospect who has to wait in line.

This guy is a special prospect because he can disrupt games with his base running.

I think the Reds see this and will promote him as quickly as his ability allows. I do not think the Reds will care very much whether Didi Gregorius or Brodie Greene is holding down a position at AA. Billy's rise to the big leagues will be the top priority.

Which is not to say he will immediately be promoted. But as soon as they think he can handle it, Billy will be AA. The Reds have big plans for this guy in terms of baseball and marketing.

[dougdirt]

IMO the Reds don't see Hamilton as just another prospect who has to wait in line.

This guy is a special prospect because he can disrupt games with his base running.

I think the Reds see this and will promote him as quickly as his ability allows. I do not think the Reds will care very much whether Didi Gregorius or Brodie Greene is holding down a position at AA. Billy's rise to the big leagues will be the top priority.

Which is not to say he will immediately be promoted. But as soon as they think he can handle it, Billy will be AA. The Reds have big plans for this guy in terms of baseball and marketing.

I think you are drastically underestimating how much the Reds like Gregorius. He is viewed as a better shortstop defensively and his bat is similar with more upside.

[Kc61]

I think you are drastically underestimating how much the Reds like Gregorius. He is viewed as a better shortstop defensively and his bat is similar with more upside.

You miss my point.

It doesn't matter whether Didi grades out higher than Billy. It is irrelevant.

Hamilton has something no other prospect in the Reds system has. Hamilton is a star.

The Reds are likely drooling at the thought of Hamilton running wild on the bases at GABP. He will bring attention. Fans. TV exposure. And probably will be a good player to boot.

This is not about Xs and Os. It's not about scouting or metrics. It's not about whether Gregorius is a better shortstop. It is about star quality.

The minute the Reds think Hamilton can play reasonably well at GABP he will be there and he will be all over the ads for Reds' baseball. Billy may play SS, second, the outfield - it doesn't matter. This is about watching Billy run.

[dougdirt]

You miss my point.

It doesn't matter whether Didi grades out higher than Billy. It is irrelevant.

Hamilton has something no other prospect in the Reds system has. Hamilton is a star.

The Reds are likely drooling at the thought of Hamilton running wild on the bases at GABP. He will bring attention. Fans. TV exposure. And probably will be a good player to boot.

This is not about Xs and Os. It's not about scouting or metrics. It's not about whether Gregorius is a better shortstop. It is about star quality.

The minute the Reds think Hamilton can play reasonably well at GABP he will be there and he will be all over the ads for Reds' baseball. Billy may play SS, second, the outfield - it doesn't matter. This is about watching Billy run.

If it isn't about who is the better player, then what is it about? The team is there to win.

I could care less about watching Billy Hamilton run if it means he is playing over someone who would make the Reds win more games. Maybe the Reds don't think that way, but they should. Right now, I can't say whether or not Hamilton is better than Gregorius. I don't know if he will eventually be better than Stubbs. Currently, both guys are better than him (and they should be, they are older and have more experience with tools and skills that match or exceed his sans speed).