Reds' Hitters Plate Discipline

[fearofpopvol1]

I do believe this is a problem for the Reds hitters. What do you think?

The Reds have the highest (ie worst) F-Strike% in all of baseball at 65.4%. The Reds also have the 10th worst Swing % (overall percentage of pitches a batter swings at).

The Reds aren't the worst in every plate discipline category, but these are 2 important categories to be sure.

[reds44]

It's a Dusty Baker problem.

[DGullett35]

It seems to me that the Reds hitters like to swing very early in the count in the beginning of games. It's almost an approach that all of them have taken. They swing at that first fastball no matter the location. IMO I would put more of the blame on Jacoby than Baker.

[redsmetz]

It seems to me that the Reds hitters like to swing very early in the count in the beginning of games. It's almost an approach that all of them have taken. They swing at that first fastball no matter the location. IMO I would put more of the blame on Jacoby than Baker.

One of my frustrations with the multitude of new stats is I don't readily recognize the alphabet soup of the statistics. For me, it would be helpful if posters consider that not all of us know this. [off my soapbox now] Thankfully, Google is handy and I found it, but it leaves me with questions viz the F-Strike% stat used here.

Fangraphs explains it thusly:

F-Strike% (first pitch strike percentage): The percentage of plate appearances (for batters) or batters faced (for pitchers) that the first pitch was a strike. This includes anytime that the count after the first pitch was 0-1, or anytime the ball was put into play on the first pitch of a plate appearance.

That leaves me with questions because it would seem without context, the number doesn't tell us whether the strike was a swinging strike or a called strike. Likewise, it doesn't show us what number of hits are included in that stat (given our erratic offense, the answer might be "few"). I suspect that data is out there, but just knowing the percentage is necessarily telling except that opposing pitchers are bringing in the zone often.

Am I wrong in this thinking?

[mbgrayson]

I do believe this is a problem for the Reds hitters. What do you think?

The Reds have the highest (ie worst) F-Strike% in all of baseball at 65.4%. The Reds also have the 10th worst Swing % (overall percentage of pitches a batter swings at).

The Reds aren't the worst in every plate discipline category, but these are 2 important categories to be sure.

Personally, I like the P/PA stat. Pitches per plate appearance gives a good overall view of who is patient and works a pitcher till they get a good pitch to hit. It is no coincidence that the hitters who see more pitches are often are among the best hitters in the league.

After the game last night, Bronson Arroyo was quoted as being surprised by how hard the Cubs worked him and ran up his pitch count. This is something the Yankees and Red Sox have been famous for, and there is no reason the Reds couldn't do better.

Here is how the Reds hitters rank among their NL peers in P/PA by position: (These comparisons have no minimum # of plate appearances so that we could look at all the Reds, qualified or not.)

Catcher:
18. Ryan Hannigan 3.85
33. Devin Mesoraco 2.94

1B:
2. Joey Votto 4.37

2B:
11. Brandon Phillips 3.84

SS:
11. Zach Cozart 3.79
23. Wilson Valdez 3.25

3B:
6. Scott Rolen 3.94
13. Miguel Cairo 3.80
19. Todd Frazier 3.63

OF:
36. Ryan Ludwick 3.94
45. Jay Bruce 3.85
74. Drew Stubbs 3.44
79. Chris Heisey 3.37
84. Willie Harris 2.97

The Reds hitters, under the management of Dusty Baker, are terrible at plate patience.

[redsmetz]

Personally, I like the P/PA stat. Pitches per plate appearance gives a good overall view of who is patient and works a pitcher till they get a good pitch to hit. It is no coincidence that the hitters who see more pitches are often are among the best hitters in the league.

After the game last night, Bronson Arroyo was quoted as being surprised by how hard the Cubs worked him and ran up his pitch count. This is something the Yankees and Red Sox have been famous for, and there is no reason the Reds couldn't do better.

Here is how the Reds hitters rank among their NL peers in P/PA by position: (These comparisons have no minimum # of plate appearances so that we could look at all the Reds, qualified or not.)

Catcher:
18. Ryan Hannigan 3.85
33. Devin Mesoraco 2.94

1B:
2. Joey Votto 4.37

2B:
11. Brandon Phillips 3.84

SS:
11. Zach Cozart 3.79
23. Wilson Valdez 3.25

3B:
6. Scott Rolen 3.94
13. Miguel Cairo 3.80
19. Todd Frazier 3.63

OF:
36. Ryan Ludwick 3.94
45. Jay Bruce 3.85
74. Drew Stubbs 3.44
79. Chris Heisey 3.37
84. Willie Harris 2.97

The Reds hitters, under the management of Dusty Baker, are terrible at plate patience.

Once again, though, what's the context? What's the average for MLB? And how are the numbers for Reds clubs under other managers. Context would allow us to know is nearly 4 pitches per AB good, is it average or what? Or for that matter, how do some elite batters stack up in P/PA? I don't know the answers to these questions, but think they're legitimate in seeing if your conclusion is correct (and perhaps it is).

[cumberlandreds]

I would like to know what the MLB average is for P/PA. This seems like a good stat for plate discipline but I don't how to judge if the Reds are below average or what? Just by watching them I would say well below average. They just have terrible approaches most games. Votto sticks out as the lone batter who really works the pitchers well.

[mbgrayson]

Once again, though, what's the context? What's the average for MLB? And how are the numbers for Reds clubs under other managers. Context would allow us to know is nearly 4 pitches per AB good, is it average or what? Or for that matter, how do some elite batters stack up in P/PA? I don't know the answers to these questions, but think they're legitimate in seeing if your conclusion is correct (and perhaps it is).

Good questions. The context is the National League in 2012. The number at the left is the rank of the Reds hitters compared to other NL players this year at that position. So Votto is one of the best in the league, while WIllie Harris is one of the worst in the league, at plate patience for their position. Of course, as of yet, there is no way to attribute this directly to the manager as opposed to the player, that is merely my dig at Mr. Baker.

The other thing that is clear with P/PA is that the leaders each year are often also among the leaders in Ks. If you see a lot of pitches, you strike out more often. Stubbs is unusual here because he manages to see far fewer pitches than most of the NL K leaders....

And yes, if you average seeing around 4 pitches per plate appearance, that is generally good. However, P/PA does not equate with hitting quality by itself, but it is a measure of plate patience.

[mbgrayson]

I would like to know what the MLB average is for P/PA. This seems like a good stat for plate discipline but I don't how to judge if the Reds are below average or what? Just by watching them I would say well below average. They just have terrible approaches most games. Votto sticks out as the lone batter who really works the pitchers well.

It looks to me like in 2011, the MLB average was slightly over 3.80 P/PA. It also seems that this has been increasing in recent years. See THIS ARTICLE.

[elfmanvt07]

Good thread. A few of the above I feel have IMPROVED their approach. I would be interested to see what Stubbs' number was about a week and a half ago.

[bucksfan2]

The Reds currently have one regular with an acceptable OBP. You could throw Hanigan in there but I don't really call him a regular. I think Walt needs to add someone who knows how to find first base and isn't afraid of it. As is this offense is downright embarassing at times.

[cumberlandreds]

It looks to me like in 2011, the MLB average was slightly over 3.80 P/PA. It also seems that this has been increasing in recent years. See THIS ARTICLE.

Thanks! Looks like most of the Reds starters are about average. Which equates to about a .500 team. That's looking like what the Reds will be this season. If the top two hitters in the lineup were at Votto's P/PA this would be a much better hitting team, IMO.

[klw]

What I have notices is that there does seem to be a team wide approach at times and Dusty comments after the game seem to show this. If a pitcher is known for throwing strikes and attacking the zone, the approach seems to be to jump on him and go after the first pitch. Whether or not this is more effective is up for debate.

Where things are frustrating is seeing a batter walking on 4 or 5 pitches and then seeing the next batter swing before getting a called strike. I guess the theory is that the pitcher is going to lay one in there to get a strike but it really seems like you are potentially letting the pitcher off the hook. If you swing in that situation you better do damage.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...dr01-bat.shtml

Stubbs' p/pa is down quite a bit this year. What may be driving this is that he is seeing a higher % of strikes, has a lower percentage of missed swings, and is putting a higher percentage of swings in play because his percentage of pitches swung at has remained fairly constant.
2009- 3.87
2010- 4.02
2011- 3.95
2012- 3.44

[757690]

Thanks! Looks like most of the Reds starters are about average. Which equates to about a .500 team. That's looking like what the Reds will be this season. If the top two hitters in the lineup were at Votto's P/PA this would be a much better hitting team, IMO.

I'm sorry, but that just doesn't compute. I sincerely doubt that a team's winning percentage is linearly linked to their P/PA percentages.

It would be like saying that the Reds hit a league average number of doubles, and thus are a .500 team. I don't think you can even say that having an average P/PA means the team is league average offensively.

[dougdirt]

The Reds currently have one regular with an acceptable OBP. You could throw Hanigan in there but I don't really call him a regular. I think Walt needs to add someone who knows how to find first base and isn't afraid of it. As is this offense is downright embarassing at times.

He tried that. He is off to a slow start and everyone wants to cut him.