Maybe not in the next month, but probably by the All-Star Break, assuming they continue to produce at these levels. I think you've identified the right guys that could be due for a promotion.
I'd like to see Hamilton, Lutz, Vidal and Cingrani in AA by midseason.
To make room, I'd like to see Henry Rodriguez and DiDi Gregorius in Louisville. Maybe Cody Puckett and Ryan LaMarre too, although I'm less concerned about them. LaMarre will be 24 years old this year and has a career OPS of .734 in the minor leagues. Unless he finally starts to get some power, he is looking like more of a suspect, and his presence shouldn't block the Reds from moving Hamilton to CF, if that's what they decide what they want to do.
Go BLUE!!!
BP chat question about lutz:
Johnny (SD): I asked KG on twitter, but is Donald Lutz (Reds High A 1B) a legit power prospect or a fringe guy? Already at 10 HRs, albeit in the offense-boosting Cal League
Ben Lindbergh: And he didn't answer you? Man, I'm going to have to talk to that guy. He never answers questions from readers. (That was a joke. He answers a million questions from readers. Literally a million, and 99% of them are about when Anthony Rizzo is going to get called up.)
Here's Kevin's succinct response: "Cal League guy. Scouts aren't impressed." I'm just relaying questions from readers to KG now. This must be what being Twitter feels like.
http://diamondvisits.blogspot.com/ My Minor League stadium review site.
Still has holes in his swing and has a ways to go defensively in the outfield. It is easy to see why scouts aren't really all that impressed. I am sure his power is a 60 or so, but the rest of his game might not have another 50 on it (that would be MLB average) in the OFP reports.
Lutz has snuck up on people. Didn't even make Baseball America's top 30 Reds prospects. I think Goldstein will be surprised, too.This just seems like lazy analysis to me. The guy has not played very long and did very well in the MW League last year, was protected, and looked great in the Futures game. Obviously he didn't talk to Reds scouts.
will Lutz or Hamilton make it to the majors this season? I think we all agree the answer is no.
Will they make it to the majors at the start of next season? I think most agree the answer is no there as well.
Could they make it to the majors by the end of next season? I think some would say yes, they could, but 2014 is more likely unless your talking about a cup of coffee in september.
So if you agree that they're not going to be in the show this season, and very doubtful they're there next season, why rush them? Give both of them a full season in A+, let them work on their defensive issues while (hopefully) continueing to hit at a high clip. let them face the league 3-4 times around, see the same pitcher 3-4 times, force them to adjust to the opponents adjustments. Meanwhile, if they continue to hit at the same rate, you're just polishing up their shine as potential trade bait this summer or over the offseason. Move them up to AA and you risk them facing a drop off in offense while the defensive struggles continue. Scouts might change their tune from "a great offensive talent with work to do on defense" to "great offensive potential, but will they find success against more polished pitchers?"
Hamilton is still relatively new to switch hitting. The more times he gets to do against the same pitchers, the better adept he's going to be at that skill. Lutz still needs to work on OF defense if he's to have any value to this franchise long term outside of a trade. I believe this franchise, particularly under Jim Bowden was too often in a rush to promote guys rather than allowing them to experience the ups & downs of a full season at one level.
When Lutz moves up to AA he'll need a whole year there, big difference between high A and AA. Most starting pitchers there have a 90 plus fastball and at least one good offspeed pitch. Once he goes through the league there and pitchers make adjustments to him we'll see where he is.
And there you have it. These guys aren't going to change their tune from what they are trying to sell that isn't even 3 months old. I'd be surprised if they've even looked at Lutz again since they made the rankings in the first place.
I agree with Buckeye, lazy or at least unprepared analysis.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Generally they are there to see specific guys, but they watch everyone and will make notes on other guys if they do something worth making a note on. To be clear though, they are there to see a group of specific guys at this time of year, where as later in the season they may be there for one or two guys specifically just for trade purposes. But at this point in the season, they are probably there watching a handful of guys between the two teams with a lot more interest than the rest of the guys.
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