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Thread: Donald Lutz

  1. #31
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    Re: Donald Lutz

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I don't think there is a question, is there? A suspect at AAA in Phipps, a fringe suspect in AA in Lamarre and a couple international signings who appear to be starting over in Yorman and Duran. Is there even anyone else in the running (unless Hamilton moves to the OF)?
    That's what I was thinking mth123, but I knew that it was possible that I could have forgotten about someone. So if that is the LF prospect group, are you comfortable standing pat with what the Reds have in LF now (Frazier, Ludwig & Heisey) with Lutz in the wings as the future "maybe"? Or should the Reds go aggressively after another LF option as soon as possible - meaning FA (which I don't know whether or not they could afford) or big trade (e.g., involving Bailey, Cozart, Gregorious, Hamilton, etc.)? I know those trade options I listed are names nobody really wants to lose, but if you want quality you're going to have to give up quality.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Donald Lutz

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Still has holes in his swing and has a ways to go defensively in the outfield. It is easy to see why scouts aren't really all that impressed. I am sure his power is a 60 or so, but the rest of his game might not have another 50 on it (that would be MLB average) in the OFP reports.
    301 BA last season and a 304 this season say that his hit tool has to be better than 50. His speed is above average for a corner player, as evidenced by both the scout's take in Spring Training and doug's own report earlier this year. (Too, checking his SB and DP totals is a good way to spitball his game speed. Both are surprisingly good for a guy as big as Lutz.

    Still, if the rest of his tools are indeed 50s and his power is a 60 (with the probability of grading higher as he ages, that would make Lutz an above average major league baseball player, would it not?

    If so, he's definitely not a Cal League mirage.

    Lazy analysis.
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  4. #33
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    Re: Donald Lutz

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    301 BA last season and a 304 this season say that his hit tool has to be better than 50. His speed is above average for a corner player, as evidenced by both the scout's take in Spring Training and doug's own report earlier this year. (Too, checking his SB and DP totals is a good way to spitball his game speed. Both are surprisingly good for a guy as big as Lutz.

    Still, if the rest of his tools are indeed 50s and his power is a 60 (with the probability of grading higher as he ages, that would make Lutz an above average major league baseball player, would it not?

    If so, he's definitely not a Cal League mirage.

    Lazy analysis.
    Hit tool is not determined by minor league batting averages.

    Lutz has above average speed for the positions he plays, but he is a 40-45 runner.

    And yes, if the rest of his tings were 50's, he would be. But, they probably aren't.

  5. #34
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    Re: Donald Lutz

    Quote Originally Posted by rgslone View Post
    That's what I was thinking mth123, but I knew that it was possible that I could have forgotten about someone. So if that is the LF prospect group, are you comfortable standing pat with what the Reds have in LF now (Frazier, Ludwig & Heisey) with Lutz in the wings as the future "maybe"? Or should the Reds go aggressively after another LF option as soon as possible - meaning FA (which I don't know whether or not they could afford) or big trade (e.g., involving Bailey, Cozart, Gregorious, Hamilton, etc.)? I know those trade options I listed are names nobody really wants to lose, but if you want quality you're going to have to give up quality.
    I think at minimum they need to bring in another guy. Either a true mid-order worthy RH bat that allows them to quit stockpiling so many low OBP, medium power RH bats who clog the roster with interchangeable players who have mostly the same flaws (Heisey, Frazier, Ludwick, Stubbs, Phillips, Rolen) or a lefty bat who provides added punch against RHP. This roster is being held hostage to the idea of finding a RH power guy to hit between Votto and Bruce. Either get one, which would make it easier to quit hoarding so many imposters, or forget it and bring in another lefty who can help the team two-thirds of the time instead of sticking with guys who are fairly easy outs to a RHP. They may not be able to solve the position for the long term future as they have done with guys like Votto and Bruce in their spots, but they at least need a guy who can play for a couple years until Lutz or one of the others take over. Adding a lefty to the mix, to platoon with one of the guys already on board, would make a pretty good stopgap situation.
    Last edited by mth123; 05-10-2012 at 02:59 PM.
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  6. #35
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    Re: Donald Lutz

    Quote Originally Posted by rgslone View Post
    All the interest and talk lately about Lutz got me wondering whether he's now the Reds' best LF prospect below AAA (or maybe including AAA).
    Maybe Waldrop, but he's further away.

  7. #36
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    Re: Donald Lutz

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think at minimum they need to bring in another guy. Either a true mid-order worthy RH bat that allows them to quit stockpiling so many low OBP, medium power RH bats who clog the roster with interchangeable players who have mostly the same flaws (Heisey, Frazier, Ludwick, Stubbs, Phillips, Rolen) or a lefty bat who provides added punch against RHP. This roster is being held hostage to the idea of finding a RH power guy to hit between Votto and Bruce. Either get one, which would make it easier to quit hoarding so many imposters, or forget it and bring in another lefty who can help the team two-thirds of the time instead of sticking with guys who are fairly easy outs to a RHP. They may not be able to solve the position for the long term future as they have done with guys like Votto and Bruce in their spots, but they at least need a guy who can play for a couple years until Lutz or one of the others take over. Adding a lefty to the mix, to platoon with one of the guys already on board, would make a pretty good stopgap situation.
    Excellent Points. I'm antsy because I feel like the Reds are real close to being able to compete with the best as an equal for a NL championship. Even if Lutz (or whatever prospect) develops as hoped, who knows for sure what the rest of the team will look like in two years. I want to win now, and I think that's realistic. Of course, we can't expect the Reds to look like a fantasy baseball team - and that's not what I'm asking, and that's not what you propose either. I think it might work if we could just get either one more reliable bat for the 4th or 5th hole as you stated (in my mind I'm thinking someone with 20-25 HR power and less than a 20% strikeout rate) or a good OBP% leadoff hitter. That bat could be either RH or LH, and play either LF or 3B. In either case, I think we could get by with Phillips in the alternative spot, i.e., either batting 1st or 4th (although I think he really fits best batting 2nd). I am hopeful that Heisey would then eventually work out well as a 4th outfielder and help Stubbs man CF (depending on matchups and who's hot), and we could get enough help from Fraizer to get by at either 3rd (thus using Rolen less) or LF (using Ludwig less). If that happened and the rest of the roster could stay relatively healthy, I'd like our chances as well as anybody.

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  9. #38
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    Re: Donald Lutz

    Good article. Thanks for posting that.

    These are the next group of Reds studs. Lutz, Vidal, Hamilton, Corcino, and Cingrani. I just hope they don't get buried in high A for too long.
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  10. #39
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    Re: Donald Lutz

    They've been there for six weeks, Dude.

    A half a season is rushing them.
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  11. #40
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    Re: Donald Lutz

    Of the list of studs, one, Corcino, is currently in AA.

  12. #41
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    Re: Donald Lutz

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    Of the list of studs, one, Corcino, is currently in AA.
    Vidal was 0-4 in AA tonight. That's two checked off from the list.
    Attended 1976 World Series in my Mother's Womb. Attended 1990 World Series Game 2 as a 13 year old. Want to take my son to a a World Series Game in Cincinnati in my lifetime.

  13. #42
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    Re: Donald Lutz

    Quote Originally Posted by powersackers View Post
    Vidal was 0-4 in AA tonight. That's two checked off from the list.
    Sarcasm I hope?

  14. #43
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    No I simply meant that's two of our four studs now in AA.
    Attended 1976 World Series in my Mother's Womb. Attended 1990 World Series Game 2 as a 13 year old. Want to take my son to a a World Series Game in Cincinnati in my lifetime.

  15. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by powersackers View Post
    No I simply meant that's two of our four studs now in AA.
    Sorry. Two of the five.
    Attended 1976 World Series in my Mother's Womb. Attended 1990 World Series Game 2 as a 13 year old. Want to take my son to a a World Series Game in Cincinnati in my lifetime.

  16. #45
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Donald Lutz

    Quote Originally Posted by powersackers View Post
    No I simply meant that's two of our four studs now in AA.
    OHHHHH.... that makes so much more sense than what I thought you were saying.


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