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Thread: WAR Leaders on 5/9/12

  1. #1
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    WAR Leaders on 5/9/12

    Not surprisingly, the #1 and #2 guys on the WAR list are Josh Hamilton (2.7) and Matt Kemp (2.5). But I bet #3 through #7 would surprise a lot of people:

    3. Austin Jackson, DET, 2.1
    4. Rafael Fucrcal, STL, 1.9
    5. Carlos Beltran, STL, 1.9
    6. Michael Bourn, ATL, 1.8
    7. Bryan LaHair, CHC, 1.8

    A few things catch my eye:
    - 4 of those 5 guys have unsustainably high BABIPs, most notably LaHair and his ridiculous .500 BABIP. Jackson and Bourn have a reasonable chance of sustaining a high BABIP on the basis of their speed, but not to that degree.
    - Carlos Beltran is still a really, really good hitter. What I would have given for him in LF.

    Looking down the rest of the, there are a lot of high BABIPs. It's a good reminder that while even 5 weeks in to the season, random variation still plays a huge role in who sits atop the leaderboards.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #2
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: WAR Leaders on 5/9/12

    Zack Cozart leads the Reds position players at 1.3, followed by Votto at 1.2 and Bruce at 1.1.

  4. #3
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: WAR Leaders on 5/9/12

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Zack Cozart leads the Reds position players at 1.3, followed by Votto at 1.2 and Bruce at 1.1.
    Cozart is tied with Starlin Castro for 3rd, behind Furcal and (surprisingly) Jed Lowrie. The NL All-Star SS vote will be interesting. I'm guessing Tulo will get the nod, which he should, but I could see Furcal making a very strong run and wouldn't be at all surprised to see Lowrie as the Astros lone rep (it'll almost definitely be him, Altuve or Myers).

    I should add -- I'm a very strong believer in the idea that the all-star game is meant for the games' best players, not for the guys having the best 2 months or even best last 12 months.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 05-09-2012 at 11:03 AM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  5. #4
    Future Fame of Holler WildcatFan's Avatar
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    Re: WAR Leaders on 5/9/12

    Reds WAR:

    Hitters_______________________Pitchers
    1. Zack Cozart, 1.3_____________1. Johnny Cueto, 0.9
    2. Joey Votto, 1.2______________2. Aroldis Chapman, 0.8 (!)
    3. Jay Bruce, 1.1_______________3. Bronson Arroyo, 0.6 (!)
    4. Ryan Hanigan, 0.5____________4. Mat Latos, 0.4
    5. Drew Stubbs, 0.2_____________5. Logan Ondrusek, 0.4
    6. Ryan Ludwick, 0.1 (!)__________6. Sean Marshall, 0.2
    7. Brandon Phillips, 0.0___________7. J.J. Hoover, 0.1
    8. Scott Rolen, -0.3_____________8. Jose Arredondo, 0.1
    9. Chris Heisey, -0.5 (!)__________9. Alfredo Simon, 0.1
    ___________________________10. Mike Leake, 0.0
    ___________________________11. Homer Bailey, 0.0
    ___________________________12. Sam LeCure, 0.0
    ___________________________13. Bill Bray, -0.5

    Interesting notes:
    -Mike Leake has a higher offensive WAR (0.1) than pitching (0.0)
    -Cozart is likely to maintain his position in the top three due to average BABIP and plus defense.
    -Heisey has a lower WAR than Wilson Valdez (-0.3) and Willie Harris (-0.4). However, those two have had much fewer appearances to ruin things.
    "I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski

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    Future Fame of Holler WildcatFan's Avatar
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    Re: WAR Leaders on 5/9/12

    Also the Phillies have three of the top 11 in pitching WAR in baseball. And they're last place in the East. That is a very bad offense.
    "I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski

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    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: WAR Leaders on 5/9/12

    The person I'm most surprised about on there is Furcal. I thought he was kind of done being a good offensive player and expected about a .250 BA, 330 OBP but still playing excellent defense. He is arguably the Cardinals MVP at this point.

    LaHair is a stud so I think his future is very bright.
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

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    Re: WAR Leaders on 5/9/12

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    - Carlos Beltran is still a really, really good hitter. What I would have given for him in LF.
    Me too. I had really hoped that the Reds plugged him into LF. I thought he would've been a difference maker. There were quite a few people on RZ who disliked that idea, though.

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    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: WAR Leaders on 5/9/12

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    LaHair is a stud so I think his future is very bright.
    I know LaHair has produced in his 169 PAs as a Cub and the last three years in the PCL, but given his .500 BABIP this year and the fact that the hitting-starved Mariners let him go as a minor league FA, what are your basing your opinion on? I think he is a flash in the pan, but maybe he has changed something to make his success sustainable.

  10. #9
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: WAR Leaders on 5/9/12

    Beltran has 10 home runs and 1 double. That has to correct itself at some point.

  11. #10
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: WAR Leaders on 5/9/12

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    I know LaHair has produced in his 169 PAs as a Cub and the last three years in the PCL, but given his .500 BABIP this year and the fact that the hitting-starved Mariners let him go as a minor league FA, what are your basing your opinion on? I think he is a flash in the pan, but maybe he has changed something to make his success sustainable.

    I'm basing my opinion of what I see and stats to back up what I see. I'm looking at his minor league stats and he has really put it together the past couple of years. He has always had a pretty good to great OBP even in his down years in the minors. Watching him in the limited amount of games I have seen, he is very good (again from the games I have seen) taking the ball the other way. I always feel that players that have the ability to take the ball the other way at will (like a David Freese) will have a good chance of succeeding at the major league level. Yes, the .500 BABIP is unsustainable. So what? If he can give the Cubs 25-30 HRs, 80-90 RBI's, hit .270-.300, and have a .350-.380 OBP, wouldn't you say that is a successful major league campaign considering the decline in total offense league wide? I don't understand why people cannot just sit back and enjoy a player instead of looking for ways in which to downgrade a player. It disgust me even sticking up for a Cubs player but I think props have to be given when they're due.

    Beltran has 10 home runs and 1 double. That has to correct itself at some point.
    In the mean time, he's fully replacing Pujols by a mile.
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

    “I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

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  12. #11
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: WAR Leaders on 5/9/12

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    I know LaHair has produced in his 169 PAs as a Cub and the last three years in the PCL, but given his .500 BABIP this year and the fact that the hitting-starved Mariners let him go as a minor league FA, what are your basing your opinion on? I think he is a flash in the pan, but maybe he has changed something to make his success sustainable.
    To be fair, things seemed to have clicked for him after his 6th season in the PCL...
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  13. #12
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: WAR Leaders on 5/9/12

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    To be fair, things seemed to have clicked for him after his 6th season in the PCL...
    Some guys are late bloomers.
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

    “I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

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