Had 'em all the way!
Had 'em all the way!
Can a reliever win a CY Young? Seriously Chapman has been that good this year, but damn so has Cueto. He reminds me a lot of Maddux. On some days he won't blow you away but his stuff moves, and he places it well. He's turned into an actual pitcher.
I would have left Chapman in. But it worked out. So it is all good.
"I talked to an advance scout that told me if Joey Votto and Albert Pujols were on the same team he'd advise his team to do the unthinkable...pitch around Votto to get to Pujols." - Buster Olney, ESPN
If the season ended today the Reds would be on the outside looking in.
The Cardinals are a ridiculous +75 runs scored already. They are 2.4 runs per game better than their opponents. The second best team, Atlanta, is 0.8 runs per game better than their opponents. St. Louis' record is 20-11. Pythag has them at 23-8.
The top five teams in strength of schedule are all from the NL Central division by virtue of having played the Cardinals.
The Cardinals are scoring 5.61 runs per game. At that pace they will score 908 runs. Second-place Atlanta is almost a half a run a game behind that pace.
The Cardinals are allowing just 3.19 runs per game. At that pace they will allow just 517 runs. Washington is even better at 3.03 runs per game allowed.
If they maintain their current pace they will score 391 more runs than they allow. Pythag would work that out to be 120 wins.
To put that 391 into perspective let's look at the Big Red Machine. In 1975 and 1976 the Reds were +254 and +224 respectively. Not even in the same ballpark as 391. The 1927 Yankees were +2.4, same as St. Louis. The 2000 Mariners were only +300.
St. Louis' start is ill.
Last edited by texasdave; 05-10-2012 at 10:15 AM.
Just to be clear, I don't think the Cardinals can keep it up either. But, you have to admit, those numbers are pretty staggering at this point in the season. As to only being 3.5 games out? If both teams continue playing at their current pace you can figure the Reds will be eliminated right around Labor Day, maybe a little after.
My post was only to offer a little perspective.
NOTE: Houston has played 25 games against teams above .500 and only 6 games against teams below. Now that is a rough schedule.
Last edited by texasdave; 05-10-2012 at 01:35 PM.
Check out Lynn's "luck stats":
BABIP: .209 (avg .270-.290 is average)
LOB: 93.8 % (77% or so is average)
Lynn's numbers are not even remotely sustainable.
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