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Thread: 5/12/12 -- Nationals at Reds

  1. #226
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: 5/12/12 -- Nationals at Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRedsFan View Post
    Not anymore, Sir Charles. Everybody has learned that if you pitch around Votto, you can beat the Reds by scoring 4 runs or less. Until the Reds get a real bat behind Votto, this is what we have.
    I'm hoping Frazier (who didn't look so hot tonight, but 1-4 is an improvement from what we've had) will give the lineup enough of a marginal upgrade that your hypothesis changes a bit.

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  3. #227
    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: 5/12/12 -- Nationals at Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I'm hoping Frazier (who didn't look so hot tonight, but 1-4 is an improvement from what we've had) will give the lineup enough of a marginal upgrade that your hypothesis changes a bit.
    Me too. This team (the Nats) has a wonderful pitching staff, but they are getting production from the bottom of the order and our guys allowed 2 runs in 9 innings, which is great. The problem is obvious and I think the only solution is to bring in a banger who can hit to boost this club. A trade? I hope because the "kids" haven't been the answer so far.
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  4. #228
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: 5/12/12 -- Nationals at Reds

    We're bad again. Feels bad, man.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

  5. #229
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: 5/12/12 -- Nationals at Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRedsFan View Post
    Not anymore, Sir Charles. Everybody has learned that if you pitch around Votto, you can beat the Reds by scoring 4 runs or less. Until the Reds get a real bat behind Votto, this is what we have.
    I would pitch around Votto to make Phillips face a righty every time. The difference in likely outcome is striking.

    Against righties, Votto has a career wOBA of .414 while Phillips had a wOBA of .315. Thats a difference of 52 runs or 5 WAR over 600 PAs..... Against righties, Phillips is really miscast at the cleanup bat that splits the lefties.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  6. #230
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: 5/12/12 -- Nationals at Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I would pitch around Votto to make Phillips face a righty every time. The difference in likely outcome is striking.

    Against righties, Votto has a career wOBA of .414 while Phillips had a wOBA of .315. Thats a difference of 52 runs or 5 WAR over 600 PAs..... Against righties, Phillips is really miscast at the cleanup bat that splits the lefties.
    That is correct what you have written but (and I don't know)....

    What would the effect of Votto standing on first base EVERY time Phillips batted do to those net 52 runs?

  7. #231
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: 5/12/12 -- Nationals at Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRedsFan View Post
    Not anymore, Sir Charles. Everybody has learned that if you pitch around Votto, you can beat the Reds by scoring 4 runs or less. Until the Reds get a real bat behind Votto, this is what we have.
    Reds are 13-9 in games in which they hold the opponent to 4 runs or less so far this season.

    Reds are scoring .17 runs a game below league average. 12 games against the leagues two best pitching staffs.

    Yeah, they could use another bat, but it's not as bad as it seems.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  8. #232
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: 5/12/12 -- Nationals at Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I would pitch around Votto to make Phillips face a righty every time. The difference in likely outcome is striking.

    Against righties, Votto has a career wOBA of .414 while Phillips had a wOBA of .315. Thats a difference of 52 runs or 5 WAR over 600 PAs..... Against righties, Phillips is really miscast at the cleanup bat that splits the lefties.
    Even with less this two outs? That means that Bruce will likely bat with another runner on base. With two outs, definitely, though.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  9. #233
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: 5/12/12 -- Nationals at Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Even with less this two outs? That means that Bruce will likely bat with another runner on base. With two outs, definitely, though.
    Then you bring in a lefty.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  10. #234
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: 5/12/12 -- Nationals at Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    That is correct what you have written but (and I don't know)....

    What would the effect of Votto standing on first base EVERY time Phillips batted do to those net 52 runs?
    Good question. It depends upon the number of outs etc. ill think about putting a number to it.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  11. #235
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: 5/12/12 -- Nationals at Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Reds are 13-9 in games in which they hold the opponent to 4 runs or less so far this season.

    Reds are scoring .17 runs a game below league average. 12 games against the leagues two best pitching staffs.

    Yeah, they could use another bat, but it's not as bad as it seems.
    This. We're doing this with a LOT of our hitters scuffling right now.

    My point was I thought it was silly to "give up" on that game last night when it was only a 1 run difference and Bruce was due up.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG


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