I wouldn't be shocked to see Molina average around a .850 OPS in the remainder of his prime years. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if this was his first 20 HR year of his career. If he can produce at those levles, the contract he just signed would certainly be great value for the Cardinals.I agree completely when you say that he's improved as a hitter over the long haul. He has. No doubt. But here's the question...when does that stop? 100 ops bump last year. Another 70 point bump this year. So I guess he's Josh Hamilton next season? What I'd expect from him this year is right around a 100 ops+. So yeah, I expect him to come back to earth...noticably.
Before the age of 30 he's had 8 seaosns of .715 OPS ball.
Is there any other comparable of a guy who after that start has 5 or so seasons of .850 OPS?
I doubt it.
If you look at why he's so much better this year, his walk rate is behind career levels, and his K rate is up a bit.
His LD rate is 33% over career levels, and his HR/FB rate is at 14% vs.a career of 6.2%. He's getting less FB's but way more HR's?
There is little to suggest his hot start is anything other than randomness. I think he's a better hitter than he used to be, but an .800 OPS would be a huge achievement for him.
If the NL East beats each other up the rest of the way it is very likely both the Reds and Cards will make the playoffs. With five playoff teams, 90 wins should assure a post season bid.
The NL East is going to be a real dogfight and fun to watch this summer. All but the Mets are realistic playoff contenders and the baby NY team may still have a winning record. The Giants/Dodgers will get to beat up on the NL West.
Also for all those that wanted Houston to stay in the the NL Central I say good riddance. They may pester the Reds/Cards all season long - much like the good pitching Pirates. Having the only team in the #5 US metro area out of our division is a very good long term thing for the Reds and the rest of the division (but bad for the NL). Besides the math of 1/6th vs. 1/5th. The long term plan is that Texas must have a third team placed in the NL at some point in the next decade given the continued explosive growth in both population and corporate HQ in Texas.
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