Sunday, May 27, 2012, Minor-League Updates

[RedlegJake]

I agree with you Neil. I like the Reds farm all in all - it plays out very solidly with league average types. No stars. And when I mean impact bat I am talking a reasonably balanced hitter - some discipline and contact to go with the power. I like Soto's bat but at first base - I don't see him as more than a "league average" prospect. The trades have knocked out the star power but hopefully that's temporary. Lutz is raw enough to still go all "Votto" on us, Rodriguez and Duran have the tools, Hamilton has his special brand of excitement, there may be a dark horse or two, like Bryson Smith, maybe, that steps it up and there is a new crop coming soon with a couple extra high picks. Richie Schaffer or Joey Gallo would look great in Cincinnati Red

[Scrap Irony]

While I agree that the impact bats are few and far between, it's not as if the farm is barren. The talent is just a couple years away.

Lutz, if he can play LF (and reports look encouraging), projects as an 800+ OPS guy with high-end years over 850. Hamilton's impact would be more on the bases, but, if he continues to do what he's done for almost a year now, he'll have a serious impact on the entire league. Henry Rodriguez-- at around 775 OPS-- projects as a 120 or so OPS+ this season.

All three of those are impact bats, especially if they replace poor bats in the lineup.

[mth123]

While I agree that the impact bats are few and far between, it's not as if the farm is barren. The talent is just a couple years away.

Lutz, if he can play LF (and reports look encouraging), projects as an 800+ OPS guy with high-end years over 850. Hamilton's impact would be more on the bases, but, if he continues to do what he's done for almost a year now, he'll have a serious impact on the entire league. Henry Rodriguez-- at around 775 OPS-- projects as a 120 or so OPS+ this season.

All three of those are impact bats, especially if they replace poor bats in the lineup.

Agree on Lutz. H-Rod is growing on me, but he may be another utility guy. Not sold on Hamilton. I still think the best play is to deal him in a package for an above average every day player.

My original observation was more concerning having anything to help this year. The only help I see is Donnie Joseph and he's pretty iffy.

[Scrap Irony]

There's nothing in AAA, I agree.

If an entire team can disappoint, Louisville is the one.

[RedlegJake]

Pensacola right now isn't a lot better. As soon as a few kids get promoted it should start looking more exciting. I'm not as down on the system as I might sound. The lower levels are jammed with prospects - I don't see any stars but a whole slew of very solid players. Nothing at all wrong about that. In fact given my druthers I'd rather be deep than have 1 or 2 isolated big stars. As Stephenson and Garrett get going, if Lutz mashes when he hits AA, and Hamilton continues to get on base at a high clip, then with the rest of these kids in a year's time the system is going to be shining again. There is a whole bag of kids just playing for the first time in Billings and Dayton and in extended ST that we don't know a thing/or much about yet - and some like Smith who have already tickled possibilities. But pegging A players and lower, unless they are really high picks, is hard. That why I said a guy like Lutz could go all "Votto" on us as he hits AA. It's even trickier when your high A is the Cal league - kinda the reverse of when it was in Florida and pitching dominated. There what looks like a great hitter may end up fizzling when he gets to Pensacola. Don't get excited by Cal League numbers. 2014 is when I expect this farm system to really be flying high again - with AAA guys jockeying for a spot on the BL roster and guys below them pushing hard to climb up the ladder all the down to Billings.
I'm long term really bullish on the Reds farm system, just short term they've been wiped out by promotions and trades.

[Edd Roush]

In fact given my druthers I'd rather be deep than have 1 or 2 isolated big stars.

Now that this thread is pretty much left for dead, five days after being relevant, I feel comfortable following you off topic with this statement.

I completely disagree with your sentiment of wanting depth rather than stars. Stars produced from your farm system are what provide the surplus value to your major league team. Depth can be acquired cheaply in free agency. The bench/utility types are always available every off-season. A pre-arbitration stud is one of the hardest things to acquire every off-season. I could care less about how the minor league teams are doing, although if they win that's great. Rather, I want to produce stars from the system. I don't care how many Kris Negron, Chris Valaika and Sam LeCure types the Reds develop. I am concerned with the Jay Bruce, Joey Votto and Homer Baileys this farm system develops.

Right now, we only have a few possible studs in the system. Billy Hamilton is at the top of the list, and Corcino, Lutz and Stephenson have chances to join him on the list. I could care less whether a mid-round guy is shaping into a decent utility player. We can acquire those types in free agency. We need to develop superstars, even if they are "isolated."

[dougdirt]

Now that this thread is pretty much left for dead, five days after being relevant, I feel comfortable following you off topic with this statement.

I completely disagree with your sentiment of wanting depth rather than stars. Stars produced from your farm system are what provide the surplus value to your major league team. Depth can be acquired cheaply in free agency. The bench/utility types are always available every off-season. A pre-arbitration stud is one of the hardest things to acquire every off-season. I could care less about how the minor league teams are doing, although if they win that's great. Rather, I want to produce stars from the system. I don't care how many Kris Negron, Chris Valaika and Sam LeCure types the Reds develop. I am concerned with the Jay Bruce, Joey Votto and Homer Baileys this farm system develops.

Right now, we only have a few possible studs in the system. Billy Hamilton is at the top of the list, and Corcino, Lutz and Stephenson have chances to join him on the list. I could care less whether a mid-round guy is shaping into a decent utility player. We can acquire those types in free agency. We need to develop superstars, even if they are "isolated."

It can go both ways. If you can constantly fill your bench, bullpen, 3-5 spots in your rotation and a regular spot every few years and you can save TONS of money to either bring in or retain your stars instead of spending 30 million+ on those spots.

[Benihana]

Now that this thread is pretty much left for dead, five days after being relevant, I feel comfortable following you off topic with this statement.

I completely disagree with your sentiment of wanting depth rather than stars. Stars produced from your farm system are what provide the surplus value to your major league team. Depth can be acquired cheaply in free agency. The bench/utility types are always available every off-season. A pre-arbitration stud is one of the hardest things to acquire every off-season. I could care less about how the minor league teams are doing, although if they win that's great. Rather, I want to produce stars from the system. I don't care how many Kris Negron, Chris Valaika and Sam LeCure types the Reds develop. I am concerned with the Jay Bruce, Joey Votto and Homer Baileys this farm system develops.

Right now, we only have a few possible studs in the system. Billy Hamilton is at the top of the list, and Corcino, Lutz and Stephenson have chances to join him on the list. I could care less whether a mid-round guy is shaping into a decent utility player. We can acquire those types in free agency. We need to develop superstars, even if they are "isolated."

Agree with you Ed.

[RedlegJake]

I like depth in the system. If you can turn out Lutz, Hamilton, Corcino, Cingrani, LaMarre, Vidal type players on a regular basis - guys I identify as major league average (or in Hamilton's case possibly significantly better) to fill the spots on your team and your rotation and bullpen, the system only has to produce an occasional super star type player. There are enormous savings in having these other positions filled from within - minimum to a million or two a year compared to 7-8-10 million for league average. Look what teams pay for #3/4 starters. If you can save that there are funds to sign better FAs. AND - I would propose that depth makes it more likely your team will find and develop superstars. If scouts can produce regular players with regularity that's a sure sign they know what the heck they are doing. Picking the stars is fairly easy - any scout can see Josh Hamilton/ARod/Bryce Harper types pre-draft. A scouting department that fills the system with lots of decent quality everyday regular players will be far more likely to spot the rough diamond - like Votto - than the scouts for systems that are barren of much but a few super talents. This becomes more and more important as a team succeeds and it's draft position falls. All it takes to have more superstar prospects than anyone else is to fail miserably for several years like KC and before them Tampa Bay.

I guess I said it wrong the first time. Everyone likes superstars. What I really meant was that the depth of our system shows its health and the likelihood it will soon have its share of superstar caliber prospects. We've promoted or traded most of them away except for the few in the lower levels that might still emerge - Lutz, Hamilton, Corcino, Cingrani. Once all last year's draftees are properly seen and evaluated and this year's draft class is signed and sealed, the system will look terrific, imo. Right now it's just very thin at top. It's depth at the lower levels is striking. I care a whole heckuva lot how these teams do. In today's baseball it is the lifeblood of a team like the Reds.

[RedlegJake]

I might also add that I'm not "down" on Hamilton or Lutz or Corcino et al. I'm just waiting to call them better than average (which is really not a dis). At the lower levels most players don;t have the pedigree or public reports that make it easy to assess their true ability. Once they rise to AA a much clearer picture begins to emerge. With a few guys like Jay Bruce, you know his pedigree and call him a star from the get go, but with a Donald Lutz I at least, adapt a wait and see attitude. He certainly has the power and has shown the hitting chops to succeed. Let him bust up AA and I might upgrade my personal evaluation. Corcino is at AA and though Doug thinks I'm light on my regard, I see a #3-4 starter who might be a tick less effective than Cueto. Overall though that's why I say in a year the Reds system will look far better than it does right now. A lot of that low level depth will have risen to AA and a few to AAA and I'll bet at least a couple guys emerge as star prospects in the process. That's another reason I like depth at the lower levels - baseball is attrition and when there are more quality players the odds rise that a few emerge successfully. Plus I believe that the better the guys you play with the better you become. Thus depth helps overall competition and success.