Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 4 1234 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 59

Thread: Sean Marshall's bad luck

  1. #1
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    15,740

    Sean Marshall's bad luck

    Sean Marshall is striking out more than 12 batters per 9 IP, walking a hair over 2 and allowing 1 homer. Combined, this figures suggest an ERA exactly in line with the 2.26 he put up last year.

    Unfortunately, his ERA is 4.24. Maybe he's just making a lot mistakes? Well, his GB/FB rate is up and his LD% is down. What gives? A .435 BABIP.

    There's an article on Baseball Prospectus right now that looks at a very similar reliever from a results standpoint who's going through the same problem, Johnny Venters. He's got a .449 BABIP that is a big reason why he looks like he's scuffling despite pitching pretty well.

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...d=17163#114372

    The article actually looks at his hits allowed and judges them based on luck and finds, not surprisingly, that he suffered from a rash of bloops and seeing-eye singles.

    We can't automatically assume the same for Marshall, but I'd be willing to bet on a similar finding. If somebody had the time & energy, it would certainly be interesting to take a look.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    North Kansas City, Mo
    Posts
    5,226

    Re: Sean Marshall's bad luck

    I read a piece on Marshall that said except for an unlucky hit or two he really is pitching as well as he ever has. I'm not worried a bit.

  4. #3
    Hardscrabble wheels's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2002
    Location
    Columbus, Ohio
    Posts
    7,252

    Re: Sean Marshall's bad luck

    Marshall is as lockdown as he was last year. There is zero doubt in my mind.

    I believe Dusty is terribly overreacting. To the detriment of both Chapman and Marshall.
    Pray for Rain.

  5. #4
    Lets Go 'Bird' Hunting The Voice of IH's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    The University of Akron
    Posts
    1,110

    Re: Sean Marshall's bad luck

    Quote Originally Posted by wheels View Post
    Marshall is as lockdown as he was last year. There is zero doubt in my mind.

    I believe Dusty is terribly overreacting. To the detriment of both Chapman and Marshall.
    I don't think it is to any detriment of anyone. Chapman gets to pitch in high pressure situations, grow as a ball player and limit his innings. Marshall already has a deal, and is back in the role that he feels most comfortable in.
    Hey Sparky! Indian Hill English teachers taught me everything I know!

  6. #5
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    33,745

    Re: Sean Marshall's bad luck

    Quote Originally Posted by The Voice of IH View Post
    I don't think it is to any detriment of anyone. Chapman gets to pitch in high pressure situations, grow as a ball player and limit his innings. Marshall already has a deal, and is back in the role that he feels most comfortable in.
    Has Marshall said he is more comfortable as a set up man?

  7. #6
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    North Carolina
    Posts
    24,877

    Re: Sean Marshall's bad luck

    I don't understand how it is to the detriment of anyone. Marshall may be as lockdown as he ever was, but Chapman is about as lockdown as anyone has ever been right now.
    "The guy I think could be really good in center is Adam Dunn. If someone asked me if Dunn could be a center fielder for the next 10 years, if he started working on it, no one could explain to me why he couldnít do it." - Brad Kullman

  8. #7
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    33,745

    Re: Sean Marshall's bad luck

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    I don't understand how it is to the detriment of anyone. Marshall may be as lockdown as he ever was, but Chapman is about as lockdown as anyone has ever been right now.
    Well, if you planned to see Chapman start at all this year, it is a detriment to that because a team isn't going to remove their closer mid-year to put him in the rotation.

  9. #8
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    Olathe, KS
    Posts
    13,774

    Re: Sean Marshall's bad luck

    Quote Originally Posted by The Voice of IH View Post
    I don't think it is to any detriment of anyone. Chapman gets to pitch in high pressure situations, grow as a ball player and limit his innings.
    Which of those things wasn't Chapman doing before Dusty made him the closer?
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  10. #9
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    9,143

    Re: Sean Marshall's bad luck

    I donít have a subscription to BP, so I donít know how they are backing up their claim that Ventersí BABIP was mostly due to luck. Iíll just assume it accurate.

    But I understand BABIP differently than they do, and donít think a high BABIP is a result of bad luck, nor do I think that a pitcher canít control his BABIP. I think BABIP is just like any other stat, something that pitchers can control with skill and talent. However, for some reason, most pitchers in the majors that last long enough for there to be enough data on the matter, possess very similar skill and talent in regards to controlling their BABIP.

    Itís just like any player's other stats, when just looking at that player. Letís take Arroyo for example. Since 2004, he has had a BB rate between 2-3 per 9 innings and a K/BB rate between 2-3. That is his skill and talent level for those stats. We can guess pretty accurately that his current walk level of 1.3 will likely rise and his K/BB rate of 5 will likely lower. We can guess this because we can assume based on his past that his BB rate will be between 2-3 and his K/BB rate will be between 2-3 as well. And if they donít regress back to his career levels this season, we can assume they will next season.

    The same is true for his BABIP. It will likely be in the .280-.300 range, just like most other pitchers, and when it did drop to a significantly lower rate of .239 in 2010, it went back up to .278 in 2011. It currently is .324 this season, so we can guess that it will lower over the course of the season, probably near his career average of .283.

    Now would we say that Arroyoís current 5.0 K/BB rate is due mostly to luck? No, at least I donít think we should. It most likely is due to the fact that Arroyo is in a grove; that in these first 10 starts of 2013, has been able to be exceptional at controlling his K/BB rate. And, as usually happens, we can assume that this grove will end, and he will have a few starts during this season in which he is not very good at controlling his K/BB rate, which will raise his seasonís rate back to his career norms. When this happens, is this bad luck or a slump? Is this a result of bad luck or of Arroyo not making quality pitches? I would say itís the latter on both counts. In fact, that is what we have said about players when their stats decrease. We donít say itís bad luck, we say they arenít doing something right and need to fix it, and most good players usually do fix it.

    I think the same thing happens with BABIP. Currently Marshall has a very high BABIP. Some of that is due to luck, but I would imagine that most of it is due to him throwing too many hittable pitches. Heís in a BABIP slump, and just like if he were in a K slump or HR slump, we would expect him to get out of it and eventually, by seasonís end, have his K or HR or BABIP rates in range with his career rates. Not because he will no longer have bad luck, but because he will no longer throw as many hittable pitches.

    The only difference between K, HR, BB rates and BABIP rates is that, for some reason, most pitchers have similar BABIP rates while they do not for most other stats. At least, that is how I understand BABIP.
    "I donít know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody".
    óBill Cosby

  11. #10
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    33,745

    Re: Sean Marshall's bad luck

    If Marshall were throwing so many hittable strikes, then his strikeout rate wouldn't be elite.

  12. #11
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    9,143

    Re: Sean Marshall's bad luck

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    If Marshall were throwing so many hittable strikes, then his strikeout rate wouldn't be elite.
    Why are they mutually exclusive?

    Zach Grienke this year has two games in which he pitched a combined 6 innings, struck out a combined 8 batters, yet gave up a combined 19 hits and 15 runs.

    I constantly see relievers give up multiple runs and strike out the side in the same inning.
    "I donít know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody".
    óBill Cosby

  13. #12
    Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Location
    Richmond, Indiana
    Posts
    1,679

    Re: Sean Marshall's bad luck

    That is one convoluted post there 757690.

  14. #13
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Posts
    33,745

    Re: Sean Marshall's bad luck

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Why are they mutually exclusive?
    Well, generally because you can't be both highly hittable and highly unhittable. It simply defies logic.

    Zach Grienke this year has two games in which he pitched a combined 6 innings, struck out a combined 8 batters, yet gave up a combined 19 hits and 15 runs.
    That is a situation where K/9 is misleading because he wasn't facing your typical number of hitters in his innings. In those 6 innings, he faced 39 batters. That is about 40% more than he typically faces in 6 innings. So his K/9 was 'high', but 8 out of 39 is 21%, which again is good, but not the same elite number that his 12/9ip would suggest.

    I constantly see relievers give up multiple runs and strike out the side in the same inning.
    Again, in a small sample size, that works. In the larger sample size though, you aren't going to see that happening and contribute it to some sort of skillset.

  15. #14
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Calgary, Alberta, aka, the most prosperous city in the world.
    Posts
    10,386

    Re: Sean Marshall's bad luck

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post

    But I understand BABIP differently than they do, and donít think a high BABIP is a result of bad luck, nor do I think that a pitcher canít control his BABIP. I think BABIP is just like any other stat, something that pitchers can control with skill and talent. However, for some reason, most pitchers in the majors that last long enough for there to be enough data on the matter, possess very similar skill and talent in regards to controlling their BABIP.
    So, even though BABIP is a controllable stat, for some reason no one ever does, or at least controls it in the exact same manner.

    The only logical explanation for that statement is that pitchers have little or no control over their BABIP.

    I've never heard the explanation that all pitchers can control BABIP, but they all control it virtually the same. Even if true, it means that BABIP is not being controlled.

  16. #15
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    9,143

    Re: Sean Marshall's bad luck

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Well, generally because you can't be both highly hittable and highly unhittable. It simply defies logic.

    That is a situation where K/9 is misleading because he wasn't facing your typical number of hitters in his innings. In those 6 innings, he faced 39 batters. That is about 40% more than he typically faces in 6 innings. So his K/9 was 'high', but 8 out of 39 is 21%, which again is good, but not the same elite number that his 12/9ip would suggest.

    Again, in a small sample size, that works. In the larger sample size though, you aren't going to see that happening and contribute it to some sort of skillset.
    1) It is not illogical that a pitcher can throw many unhittable pitches in an inning and a few very hittable ones. Happens all the time.

    2) Greinke for his career strikes out 21% of all batters he faces. So for those two games, he was exactly on pace in terms of strike outs.

    3) We see hitters strike out three times in a game and go 3-6 with two doubles and a homer all the time too. Are you saying there is no skill set attributed to his hitting? Was it all luck? Was it all out of his control?
    "I donít know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody".
    óBill Cosby


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25