"I can't take this homerism anymore." - 10xWSChamps, August 11, 2010. A Cardinals fan having a problem with all the homerism on Redszone. Classic.
"Man do I miss the days where were didn't need a calculator and an encyclopedia of baseball metrics to enjoy a baseball game ... - MikeS21" - 8/2/12 game thread
I am a much bigger fan of Winker than Arias (largely due to K:BB ratio), but Arias has much more exhaustive experience in Dayton and it may be a good thing to challenge him with tougher competition seeing how the Reds will have to make that 40 man roster call on him sooner.
IMO Arias needs to show sustained success given his rocky history. I'd leave both in Dayton for the next month. By the end of July, I'd promote one or both of them in conjunction with promoting Ervin to Dayton. Ervin should definitely be in Dayton by a month from now, regardless of what happens with Winker and Arias. Worst case they can play an OF of all three and Gelalich can DH.
Pigott and Amaral are not real prospects, so I'm fine with them riding the pine if necessary.
Promotions are almost never based on stats, although the stats can be symptoms of the things that are commonly used. Assuming there is available playing time at the next level without taking time away from another prospect, it comes down to how the player's game projects against the upgrade in competition. Example: A player who feasts on fastballs but struggles against any pitcher that can throw a breaking ball for a strike when he is behind in the count might put up great numbers, but he is going to get killed at the next level. He won't be moved up until he starts to show something against the type of pitcher he will see at the higher level. Another player with a more modest set of numbers but without the glaring holes in his game would be deemed more ready. There are examples of both kinds of players everywhere.
You also have to weigh in the player's ability to adjust and the short-term room for growth in his skill set. Example...with some hitters, you can see their performance against certain pitchers and you feel like he has a lightning quick bat and he could still turn it up another notch or two if pushed, and there is another guy who might be putting up better numbers now but he could not handle anything more challenging.
It is all subjective. The Reds would never move any player up a level based on his OPS, although again, the OPS may (or may not) be a symptom of overall readiness to move up.
Article from Reds website on Jesse Winker:
When will the Reds give him a shot at Bakersfield? The outfield at Dayton is full with Ervin, Winker, and Gelalich. Winker has a .324/.432/.432 slash line in his last 10 games and hit another home run last night. The guy can stroke, promote him!
Agree that he has played well enough to be promoted. On the other hand, Dayton is 2.5 games out of a playoff spot after a disappointing season. There are only 25 games left and Bakersfield is going nowhere. It's not clear to me that a move to Bakersfield now really shortens his path to the majors.
I would rather see how some of these guys react to a playoff chase in Dayton, instead of running out the string at Bakersfield.
Hugs, smiling, and interactive Twitter accounts, don't mean winning baseball. Until this community understands that we are cursed to relive the madness.
No chance he goes to Bakersfield. You have to let guys play in big games with the pressure of a playoff opportunity, or else they get to the big leagues and they have never learned to win tight, hard-fought games against teams of equal talent levels. You get players who can win the games against teams of far inferior talent but they don't know how to win in games against playoff-caliber teams. Hmmmm. Nothing like that happening now in the big leagues, right?
Most Reds prospects right now are getting to big leagues having played on losing teams all the way through the system. The Reds current Farm System overall record ranks 30th out of 30. You want your prospects playing in a culture where they expect to lose every night, or in situations where they learn how to find something extra in themselves and pull out tight games, like Winker did tonight with a 3-run bomb in the 8th, down by 2.
Next year should be much better for Bakersfield. Not only are they getting some talented players moving up, but also opening a new park.
Blitz Dorsey (08-09-2013)
With the arrival of Ervin, I'm not certain how Dayton loses games. Winker, Arias, Ervin, and Mejias-Brean make up one heck of a lineup.
Arias is long gone from Dayton