Jesse Winker

[Steve4192]

Meh. Appreciate the info on Winker.

But the Reds have had plenty of mediocre to below-average left fielders. Dunn comes to mind. Gomes? Paul? I don't even think Ludwick is that great.

If Winker can hit 20 HR's and bat .300 in the majors, I'm sure his defense will be adequate enough.

We've all given Choo a pass because of his offensive prowess.

The concern with Winker is that he is a poor athlete as a teenager. Imagine what his athleticism will be like if he puts on a bunch of weight as he gets older or develops some nagging injuries. Right now, his glove projects as 'adequate' to 'passable'. If he porks up or loses a step to injury, OF might not even be an option for him anymore. He might be relegated to 1B.

Guys like Choo, Ludwick and even Dunn were fantastic athletes as teenagers. Choo and Ludwick were both plus defenders in the major leagues when they were in their 20s. The only reason their gloves are mediocre now is that they got old. Winker is likely to arrive in the majors with a mediocre glove, and it will only go downhill from there.

[dougdirt]

Winker is an average runner right now, so even if he loses a step or two, he will still be fine in left. He does need to put in the work in left though.

[Vottomatic]

The concern with Winker is that he is a poor athlete as a teenager. Imagine what his athleticism will be like if he puts on a bunch of weight as he gets older or develops some nagging injuries. Right now, his glove projects as 'adequate' to 'passable'. If he porks up or loses a step to injury, OF might not even be an option for him anymore. He might be relegated to 1B.

Guys like Choo, Ludwick and even Dunn were fantastic athletes as teenagers. Choo and Ludwick were both plus defenders in the major leagues when they were in their 20s. The only reason their gloves are mediocre now is that they got old. Winker is likely to arrive in the majors with a mediocre glove, and it will only go downhill from there.

You had me at...........well, anyway.........I always had a hard team believing Adam was also a QB after watching some of his hilarious attempts to throw the ball to the infield from LF. Even in his younger seasons, Dunn seemed awkward to me and uncomfortable in the OF. Still hard to believe he was this great athlete and QB.

[OGB]

Serious question: how well would Winker have to play to get a promotion this year? I'm not optimistic it will happen, more curious what it would take.

[Benihana]

Serious question: how well would Winker have to play to get a promotion this year? I'm not optimistic it will happen, more curious what it would take.

IMO if he still carries an OPS over .900 at the All-Star Break, he should be promoted. If he can OPS over .800 in Bakersfield in the 2nd half, he starts next year in AA.

[dougdirt]

Serious question: how well would Winker have to play to get a promotion this year? I'm not optimistic it will happen, more curious what it would take.

I just don't think it is going to happen. The Reds are slow to promote guys in their first year and I can't recall the last time they promoted a high schooler in their first full year. Jay Bruce was basically doing what Winker is now, but with fewer walks and more power through July and he wasn't promoted. He then played with an injury in August and hit something around .160 and saw his season line fall, but he was destroying the league and didn't get promoted. The guy can certainly hit.

[RedsfaninMT]

Just looked up Winker's last 10...

In 37 AB, .405, .500, .811, 1.311 with 4 HR, 14 RBI.

That'll do.

[Kc61]

I just don't think it is going to happen. The Reds are slow to promote guys in their first year and I can't recall the last time they promoted a high schooler in their first full year. Jay Bruce was basically doing what Winker is now, but with fewer walks and more power through July and he wasn't promoted. He then played with an injury in August and hit something around .160 and saw his season line fall, but he was destroying the league and didn't get promoted. The guy can certainly hit.

Jay Bruce's Low A ball year was 2006. Ancient history.

Reds today are much more aggressive promoting players.

I expect Winker to finish this season at Bakersfield.

[mrpotamus]

Winkler is third in the Midwest league in OPS at .954. Byron Buxton, the second overall pick in the 2012 draft is second. Aside from those two, no other teenagers are in the top 10, and the next closest teenager is at .872, 80 points lower.

If he keeps this up, the Reds would be foolish to keep him at Dayton.

[dougdirt]

Jay Bruce's Low A ball year was 2006. Ancient history.

Reds today are much more aggressive promoting players.

I expect Winker to finish this season at Bakersfield.

Are they though? While we don't have tons of guys to choose from, which high schooler was promoted quickly in their first full season? Heck, which non-pitcher was promoted quickly in their first full season?

Plus, that Bakersfield outfield is full of guys the Reds want to get full playing time for already, but aren't ready for a promotion at all. I just don't see it being a likely move.

[thorn]

I don't think moving him to Bakersfield is a wise decision, Bakersfield is fools gold if you ask me. If he puts up these kind of numbers all year, bypass A+ and go straight to AA for the last month or few weeks, challenge thy hitters.

[OGB]

Plus, that Bakersfield outfield is full of guys the Reds want to get full playing time for already, but aren't ready for a promotion at all. I just don't see it being a likely move.

Hadn't thought about that, although in an ideal world, Waldrop, Selsky, or YRod would play well enough to get promoted, but we know that won't happen.

[HokieRed]

Hadn't thought about that, although in an ideal world, Waldrop, Selsky, or YRod would play well enough to get promoted, but we know that won't happen.

Might want to check this conclusion against Waldrop's May and his last ten games especially. IMO both Waldrop and YRod are perfectly capable of being promotable to AA later this season, though I don't expect the FO to do that, or to promote Winker until very late because I think they understand sensibly not to rush very young players.

[Benihana]

1. I really don't think they would.

2. I bet the Pirates would rather have Addison Russell than Winker. Or Wacha. Or Berrios.

The 2012 draft, at this point, is not having too many people come out and just fall flat on their faces at this point. Even guys like Winker who have come out and basically just beat up all competition they have faced, he can only move up so much because other guys are also doing pretty well and Winker is certainly limited by the fact that he is a left fielder, so he has to rake.

1. Completely disagree. The Reds, along with every other team in baseball, would rank Winker over Travieso at this point. To illustrate, I'll basically guarantee you that Winker will make the midseason Top 100 prospects lists. I'd be very surprised if Travieso even gets mentioned on any of them.

2. That said, I agree - so far the top 10-12 guys in the 2012 draft have not disappointed. Winker IMO would now be seen as a Top 20 guy, and maybe even a Top 15 guy, but it's hard to crack that top 10 in this short of time.

[lollipopcurve]

1. Completely disagree. The Reds, along with every other team in baseball, would rank Winker over Travieso at this point.

Agreed. He's left Travieso in the dust, IMO.