Jesse Winker

[mth123]

Baseball is the only sport where you cannot definitively assume a guy is a better prospect because he was drafted earlier than another guy. There are many factors that come into play.

For instance, could you assume Amir Garrett was a worse prospect than the 21 guys the Reds drafted before him? Every other team passed on Garrett 20 times as well. How about Drew Cisco in the 2009 draft? Is Jeff Gelalich a better prospect than Winker because the Reds drafted him earlier in last year's draft?

So much comes into play with draft position, but results matter more - especially when a prospect came in with a strong pedigree and his performance is not seen as flukey or attributable to some park/league/age factors. If the prospect's pedigree and projectability are there, results are what matter most. And Winker > Travieso at this point for those reasons.

Sure there are cases where signability and other factors come into play. Was that the case with Winker, or was it just he wasn't valued as highly? Guy is going to need to rake at a .850+ OPS level to be a good player in the majors. Defense, Speed, Position and other factors aren't in his favor. That has to be part of the math and I'd guess it was on draft day as well.

[lollipopcurve]

Sure there are cases where signability and other factors come into play. Was that the case with Winker, or was it just he wasn't valued as highly?

Winker had a down senior year. He had fallen on boards as a result. Meanwhile, Travieso blew up radar guns in his senior year and rocketed. Good chance that Winker was considered the better prospect, probably by a safe margin, going into that season.

[Benihana]

Winker was taken ahead of Gelalich (both were supplemental first-rounders).

Your overriding point is exactly correct though.

Oops, sorry. Swing it back - is Gelalich a better prospect than Tanner Rahier because he was taken earlier?

[OGB]

I said the following earlier and I feel like it carries weight, and it was almost exclusively ignored because too many forum members' favorite pasttimes are arguing with Doug.

Just because Winker has performed at a high level, it doesn't change the type of ceiling he projects to have, it just gives you more confidence that he'll be able to hit that ceiling.
He might be a .900 OPS guy who hits 25HR and plays avg LF defense.
Travieso might be a power armed #1 starter.


I'm not saying that you can't make an argument that Winker is a better prospect, but I wouldn't. Unless you honestly feel like Travieso doesn't have the ceiling of a #1 starter, or you are deluded as to what Winker's ceiling really is, then I don't see how he has passed him as a prospect.

Either way, if anybody could have told us the day after the draft last year that we'd be having this discussion less than a year later, we'd all be elated. I think we can ALL agree on that.

[OGB]

I'd say Winker's ceiling projects to 2008-10 Kevin Youkilis as a left fielder.
Travieso's ceiling projects to someone like Matt Cain.

I hope they both reach their full potential.

[dougdirt]

Sure am. One of the top hitters in the Midwest League, a tough hitters league, through May. Absolutely more sold than I was last year.

And speaking of BA's end-of-season rankings....

On Travieso: "Many observers see him as a power reliever down the road."

On Winker: "A future #3 hitter in a contender's lineup."

If you actually read those reports, you'd find it hard to see how Travieso was placed ahead of Winker.

Bottom line, once the draft is over they have to play.

The reports I saw, based on the stuff, had me questioning what the heck everyone projecting him later in the draft was smoking. The kid has an elite arm.

[Benihana]

I said the following earlier and I feel like it carries weight, and it was almost exclusively ignored because too many forum members' favorite pasttimes are arguing with Doug.

Just because Winker has performed at a high level, it doesn't change the type of ceiling he projects to have, it just gives you more confidence that he'll be able to hit that ceiling.
He might be a .900 OPS guy who hits 25HR and plays avg LF defense.
Travieso might be a power armed #1 starter.


I'm not saying that you can't make an argument that Winker is a better prospect, but I wouldn't. Unless you honestly feel like Travieso doesn't have the ceiling of a #1 starter, or you are deluded as to what Winker's ceiling really is, then I don't see how he has passed him as a prospect.

Either way, if anybody could have told us the day after the draft last year that we'd be having this discussion less than a year later, we'd all be elated. I think we can ALL agree on that.

So what was Joey Votto's ceiling when he was taken in the 2nd round of the 2002 draft? When he performed well (but not as well as Winker) in his first two seasons in pro ball, did it just make him more likely to hit that modest ceiling, or do you think there might have been indications that maybe his ceiling was higher than everyone once thought?

[dougdirt]

Despite all of the disagreement about who is ranked where and who is the better what, Jesse Winker is a freaking stud of a hitter.

[icehole3]

when Winkler starts hitting the 75-80 walks area each season then he's venturing into Votto's neighborhood.

[Blitz Dorsey]

when Winkler starts hitting the 75-80 walks area each season then he's venturing into Votto's neighborhood.

And that's the thing about Winker: Let's forget about the fact he rakes for a moment. He also gets a ton of walks. This is a young man that knows exactly what he's doing when he steps in the batter's box. Great approach, rakes when he makes contact, has decent power, walks a ton. All this adds up to an OPS machine.

Yes, please.

[OGB]

So what was Joey Votto's ceiling when he was taken in the 2nd round of the 2002 draft? When he performed well (but not as well as Winker) in his first two seasons in pro ball, did it just make him more likely to hit that modest ceiling, or do you think there might have been indications that maybe his ceiling was higher than everyone once thought?

Votto is a far better athlete than Winker for one thing. He stole 24 bases one year in the minors. From what I've heard, I don't think Winker projects to have nearly as much power as Votto either, though I could be wrong on that.

[dougdirt]

Votto is a far better athlete than Winker for one thing. He stole 24 bases one year in the minors. From what I've heard, I don't think Winker projects to have nearly as much power as Votto either, though I could be wrong on that.

I don't think Winker is a 37 HR guy. But I don't think Votto is either. He did that once. Even with that, he averages 29 home runs per 162 games (which most guys don't play). I think Winker projects to have similar power to Votto.

[Old school 1983]

I just think its awesome that we have a player in the system that can be mentioned in the same breath as votto on any level.

[M2]

So what was Joey Votto's ceiling when he was taken in the 2nd round of the 2002 draft? When he performed well (but not as well as Winker) in his first two seasons in pro ball, did it just make him more likely to hit that modest ceiling, or do you think there might have been indications that maybe his ceiling was higher than everyone once thought?

Excellent point. I like to bring up Brian Dopirak when discussing Votto because almost the entire baseball industry judged Dopirak the superior talent with the higher ceiling. IIRC, there was even some worry that Votto might not have enough bat to be a quality 1B.

Meanwhile almost no one wondered that about Yonder Alonso, who doesn't have enough bat to be a quality 1B (and no glove either).

Ceilings are fictional constructs. Travieso doesn't have a ceiling or a floor or even walls at the moment. He's a kid who throws hard and the Reds think they might be able to develop him. As of right now, he's no Josh Hall.

Winker doesn't have a ceiling either, but he does have a skill set that's becoming more defined. He's a patient batter with a polished hit tool and some pretty solid power for a teenager in the Midwest League.

[mth123]

Winker has been in a funk for a couple of weeks. He's gone 4 for 34 since June 7 with a HR and 2 Walks. His line on 6-7 .315/.421/.528/.949 now it's 286/.387/.481/.868. Still a heckuva line, but I thought he was due for a promotion before, not so sure now. Dayton is crowded with Arias, Winker, Gelalich, Amaral, Piggott and maybe Ervin at some point. I figured adding Piggott would lead to a promotion for one of Winker or Arias with the other going up when Ervin arrives.

Arias has gone the other way with a line of .277/.311/.436/747 on 6-7. Now he's at .281/.315/.489/.804. I'd say Arias first.