Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 16

Thread: Reds Starting Pitching - June 2012

  1. #1
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    13,488

    Reds Starting Pitching - June 2012

    The starting pitching has fallen off a bit. The overall starting ERA is now 4.08, worse than league average. Cueto's ERA is 2.54. Arroyo 3.91. Bailey 4.39. Latos 4.91. Leake 4.95. Each has had 11 starts, except for Leake who's had 10.

    The overall team pitching numbers are much better because the bullpen has a fabulous ERA of 2.39.

    I know ERA is not the whole picture, just trying to start off a discussion.

    Reds starters have relatively high BAA at .275. But they have walked only 89, tied for second fewest in the league.

    The front office has heavily focused on pitching. Are the starters fading? Is the starting staff good enough for a playoff contender?

    I'm optimistic and believe that the starting pitchers have had a short slump and will come back strong. In particular, I'm looking for Latos and Leake to have very good outings in the next period of time. Neither has had a hot streak yet, they are due for one.

    I'm sure this will turn into a Chapman discussion, it's not intended. Despite the ERA, I think the current rotation is pretty good and will get better. And Dusty, Arroyo goes 90-95 pitches from now on. Other thoughts?
    Last edited by Kc61; 06-06-2012 at 05:05 PM.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2001
    Posts
    12,324

    Re: Reds Starting Pitching - June 2012

    I'd be shocked if Latos doesn't get significantly better. Mike Leake will most likely get much better as well. Homer is probably who we've seen so far this year, so I'd expect him to stay pretty flat. Cueto may fall a bit, but not overly much.

    If I were Walt I'd be much more worried about the bench and getting someone who can get on base at the top of the lineup than I would be about the starting pitching.
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

  4. #3
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    13,488

    Re: Reds Starting Pitching - June 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by MWM View Post
    I'd be shocked if Latos doesn't get significantly better. Mike Leake will most likely get much better as well. Homer is probably who we've seen so far this year, so I'd expect him to stay pretty flat. Cueto may fall a bit, but not overly much.

    If I were Walt I'd be much more worried about the bench and getting someone who can get on base at the top of the lineup than I would be about the starting pitching.
    I agree that starting pitching is not the team's big weakness. But it is a critical part of the ballclub, so it's worth discussing I think.

  5. #4
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    15,990

    Re: Reds Starting Pitching - June 2012

    Reds Starters in 2012:
    Code:
    K%	17.0%	14th
    BB%	 6.4%	 2nd
    HR/9	1.19	14th
    
    GB%	41.3%	16th
    LD%	23.3%	15th
    BABIP	.302	12th
    DER	.705	 7th
    
    ERA	4.08	10th	
    FIP	4.20	12th	
    SIERA	4.02	12th
    -Not enough strikeouts
    -Too many homers
    -Too many liners
    -Not nearly as much help from the defense as you might expect

    Bottom line is that, in aggregate, the Reds have a staff full of control artists who don't miss bats and (not surprisingly) get hit hard. That's not a recipe for success.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #5
    Have Faith In Dusty DGullett35's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    O-H-I-O
    Posts
    712

    Re: Reds Starting Pitching - June 2012

    4 games in June so im not panicking yet. However that doesn't mean im not concerned. Cueto needs to have a strong outing tonight. I think we can expect Bailey, Leake and Arroyo to be up and down. Latos should be fine in the long run also. Im trying to be optomistic..When I was still in the Sundeck I was all for trying to obtain Oswalt and guys thought I was crazy. He would be a pretty good backup plan right now.
    "Losing feels worse than winning feels good." -Vin Scully

  7. #6
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    13,488

    Re: Reds Starting Pitching - June 2012

    Dusty needs to remove starting pitchers a bit earlier in the game. He pushes guys until there is trouble.

    Excellent bullpen, no need for this. Happened two of the last three games, and many times over the years.

  8. #7
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    4,526

    Re: Reds Starting Pitching - June 2012

    No help coming from Chapman that I can see. He's too important in bailing out Dusty for his overextension of the starters and failures in handling the bullpen.

  9. #8
    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2000
    Location
    Rainelle, WV
    Posts
    8,110

    Re: Reds Starting Pitching - June 2012

    It's funny that I can see when Johnny is tiring and Dusty can't. Luckily, it didn't cost us a game, but it could have easily.
    www.ris-news.com
    "You only have to bat a thousand in two things; flying and heart transplants. Everything else you can go 4-for-5."
    -Beano Cook

  10. #9
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Midland, MI
    Posts
    6,417

    Re: Reds Starting Pitching - June 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Reds Starters in 2012:
    Code:
    K%	17.0%	14th
    BB%	 6.4%	 2nd
    HR/9	1.19	14th
    
    GB%	41.3%	16th
    LD%	23.3%	15th
    BABIP	.302	12th
    DER	.705	 7th
    
    ERA	4.08	10th	
    FIP	4.20	12th	
    SIERA	4.02	12th
    -Not enough strikeouts
    -Too many homers
    -Too many liners
    -Not nearly as much help from the defense as you might expect

    Bottom line is that, in aggregate, the Reds have a staff full of control artists who don't miss bats and (not surprisingly) get hit hard. That's not a recipe for success.
    Surprised you didn't comment on what I find the most disturbing: it's an extreme-flyball staff, which is not a recipe for success in GABP.

    Leake's groundball rate has decreased each year has been in the league, and Latos isn't the groundball-neutral guy we had hoped for. I assume it's because he's throwing less sliders, which is a pitch with downward movement and generates a lot of weak contact.

    Like you said, home runs are going to happen with a staff that surrenders a lot of contact, especially flyballs. I think those are unavoidable unfortunately, especially in such a home ballpark.

    The defense will hopefully improve, and Latos needs to start getting on track...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  11. #10
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    Pook's Hill
    Posts
    1,551

    Re: Reds Starting Pitching - June 2012

    It is a staff that, even with this offense, can win a very weak central division. However without a serious offensive upgrade it is probably not one that can carry this team very deep into the playoffs.

  12. #11
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    North Kansas City, Mo
    Posts
    5,752

    Re: Reds Starting Pitching - June 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    Surprised you didn't comment on what I find the most disturbing: it's an extreme-flyball staff, which is not a recipe for success in GABP.

    Leake's groundball rate has decreased each year has been in the league, and Latos isn't the groundball-neutral guy we had hoped for. I assume it's because he's throwing less sliders, which is a pitch with downward movement and generates a lot of weak contact.

    Like you said, home runs are going to happen with a staff that surrenders a lot of contact, especially flyballs. I think those are unavoidable unfortunately, especially in such a home ballpark.

    The defense will hopefully improve, and Latos needs to start getting on track...
    Bingo. There's the rub for me. In a park that punishes flyballs the Reds have a flyball staff. That's the one big thing I don't much like about their rotation.

  13. #12
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    St. Louis, Mo
    Posts
    3,593

    Re: Reds Starting Pitching - June 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    Bingo. There's the rub for me. In a park that punishes flyballs the Reds have a flyball staff. That's the one big thing I don't much like about their rotation.
    I have never understood this about the Reds. Why will they not build a ground ball staff in a ball park in which if you have simple popup, it will carry out? You guys have a spectacular defense and would be better served to use that to your advantage. A ground ball staff can work. Under Dave Duncan, the Cards average the 3rd best ERA in baseball. That's with bums starting in their rotation (Kent Bottenfield anyone). Sure, they had the Kile's, Carpenter's, and Wainwright's of the world starting but they never had a staff like the Braves had during that time.
    “Our next home stand follows this road trip.”

    “I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah.” says on the day before Easter

    Mike Shannon

  14. #13
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    13,488

    Re: Reds Starting Pitching - June 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    Surprised you didn't comment on what I find the most disturbing: it's an extreme-flyball staff, which is not a recipe for success in GABP.

    Leake's groundball rate has decreased each year has been in the league, and Latos isn't the groundball-neutral guy we had hoped for. I assume it's because he's throwing less sliders, which is a pitch with downward movement and generates a lot of weak contact.

    Like you said, home runs are going to happen with a staff that surrenders a lot of contact, especially flyballs. I think those are unavoidable unfortunately, especially in such a home ballpark.

    The defense will hopefully improve, and Latos needs to start getting on track...
    One metric is GB%. The starting pitchers with the top GB% in baseball are over 50%.

    Cueto has a 48.4% ground ball rate. This pitcher has really, really developed. I don't recall Cueto starting as a high ground ball type, but the more advanced Cueto can get the ground ball. Oddly, so far, Cueto has the lowest K/9 rate among the team's starters, 5.95.

    Leake has a 44.8% ground ball rate. This is good, but as noted, he's the type of pitcher who should have a higher rate. He also has a high LD rate so far this year, 29%.

    Bailey has a 38.8% ground ball rate. He fans 6.44 per nine. Probably he needs to improve in one category or the other, more ground balls or more Ks to improve much, particularly at GABP.

    Latos has a 38.2% ground ball rate. He also has the team's (starters) highest fly ball rate, 43%. He also has, by far, the highest K/9 rate among starters on the team, 8.09. He has the lowest LD% among the team's starters, 18.8%.

    Arroyo has a 37.2% ground ball rate. We all know Arroyo is a fly ball pitcher, currently 40.3% fly balls. He isn't changing at this stage, but he has other attributes if used properly (Bronson has always done well with men on base). IMO Bronson has been very good this year, and his numbers would be better except he's sometimes left in the game too long.
    Last edited by Kc61; 06-07-2012 at 02:32 PM.

  15. #14
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    15,990

    Re: Reds Starting Pitching - June 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    Surprised you didn't comment on what I find the most disturbing: it's an extreme-flyball staff, which is not a recipe for success in GABP.
    I wanted to and probably should have. I recall thinking it was closer to average, but I just looked and for the season, the staff has the 13th worst (lowest) GB:FB ratio. As you point out, that's not a great idea - -and 3 of our 5 starters to be fly ball guys.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  16. #15
    "So Fla Red"
    Join Date
    Apr 2001
    Location
    South Florida - The Real Humidor
    Posts
    5,067

    Re: Reds Starting Pitching - June 2012

    Definitely a lousy couple weeks for the starters after a great run most of May.

    Lucky to be 6-6 during the last twelve games. Missed chance to run up a few more wins against inferior competition...


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25