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Thread: 2012 Reds Draft Recap

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  1. #1
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    2012 Reds Draft Recap

    Since there are literally numerous other threads, figured it would be good to have 1 thread where everything could be discussed.

    So now that all picks have been made, how do you think the Reds did? What grade would you give them based on the information you have, assuming most if not all of the top 10 sign? How do you think the Reds did in rounds 11-40? Anyone catch your eye in those rounds? Who are your favorite picks? And least favorite picks?

    I like Jamie Ramsey's recap the best: http://ramsey.mlblogs.com/2012/06/06/reds-draft-recap/

    For what it's worth, Keith Law did not pick the Reds as a winner or a loser for the draft on espn.com. Oddly enough, he didn't have the Astros or the Nationals as winners either, which many on RZ thought they were.

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    Re: 2012 Reds Draft Recap

    Well I'm obviously no expert but I thought they had a great draft. I'm very excited to see Travieso, Winker, and Rahier get started with their careers. I'm shocked we were able to get a kid like Rahier in the 2nd round when most had him going in the 2nd half of the first round.

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    Re: 2012 Reds Draft Recap

    I really liked the Tanner Rahier pick and the Seth Mejias-Brean pick. I think both those picks were steals.

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    Re: 2012 Reds Draft Recap

    I think 28 pitchers were drafted, I love it, maybe next year theyll draft 29

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    Re: 2012 Reds Draft Recap

    My impression, based only on what I read, is that after around pick 10, everyone else from 10-100 was pretty much interchangeable. That is, a guy rated 18 really wasn't that much better than the guy rated 72 on most lists. They all had a ton of talent, but some big warts as well.

    I think that's why it wasn't surprising or that big of a deal to see the Reds pick at 14 rated about as high as their pick at 78. It will be interesting in a few years to see how they all panned out.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: 2012 Reds Draft Recap

    With all the caveats that it's impossible to judge now and all grades are incomplete, yadda yadda yadda... (REMINDER: THIS IS A MESSAGEBOARD)

    I give the Reds a B/B+ for this draft. They employed the strategy I wanted them to in going after higher-risk, higher-reward players like Travieso, Winker, and Rahier. Travieso seemed a bit of a reach with Gioloto on the board, but certainly nothing worth getting upset over- the scouts have earned my trust. The two biggest organizational needs were a big power bat (likely as a corner OF) and a future 3B with upside. They got both of those in Winker and Rahier, and hopefully won't have a problem signing either one. Gelalich doesn't do all that much for me as he seems like a slightly better hitting worse fielding LaMarre. He seems to be more in the Wright-Lohman-Greene-Valaika mold that this regime likes to go after- solid college players with no outstanding tool. Those players seem like major league backups to me. Langfield seems to have some upside, and the Reds have done well with the college relievers in the past few years, especially those drafted in the third round (Cingrani, Joseph, Stewart). Would have liked to have seen one more upside pick in rounds 4-11, but those rounds are a lot less relevant in the bigger picture.

    Last year, the success of the draft seemed to hinge on Stephenson. To me, the player to watch from this year's draft is Rahier. I love that pick. If he ends up being what most experts thought he was, this will be a very solid draft.

    FWIW, here's Keith Law's take:

    Cincinnati Reds
    Summary: Nick Travieso (1) was a reach for me at 14, a huge arm-strength guy (up to 99) who will flash a plus slider but is maybe 50/50 to end up a starter. Jesse Winker (1A) was a high-profile guy before the season, but he's a corner outfielder whose entire game in his bat, which was disappointing this spring. He is a risk to have huge platoon splits in pro ball. Jeff Gelalich (1A) was solid value as a fairly toolsy college player who should stay in right and who improved his approach dramatically this year, allowing his raw power to show up more in games. Tanner Rahier (2) was a fringe first-rounder for me as an advanced high school bat who might not stay at short but should make enough line-drive contact to profile at third. Dan Langfield (3) is another arm-strength guy with a history of below-average command and control due to a stiff, pie-thrower delivery. Jon Moscot (4) has good control with a four-pitch mix, although his arm action is a little messy in back. Beau Amaral (7) has a chance as an extra outfielder. His father, Rich, played for Seattle and Baltimore in the 1990s.

    Also FWIW, the drafts I liked more than the Reds were the Padres, Astros, Nationals, Pirates, Rangers, Jays, and (gulp) the Cardinals- if they can sign Kelly and Williams (a big if).
    Last edited by Benihana; 06-07-2012 at 11:22 AM.
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    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 Reds Draft Recap

    I think Law is a tool. Always have. I think there's a half dozen or more guys on RedsZone whose opinions have more weight for me. Probably 50 national writers I respect more. Basically, if Law likes it I probably don't and vice-versa.

    Travieso is a solid pick given the Reds knowledge of the kid on a personal level. I am convinced the big ? in scouting isn't talent it's judging the fire, coachability and ambition between the ears. They were really in on this kid so I'm betting his intangibles are off the charts for them.

    Winkler and Gelalich were picked for their bats - one has more power potential, the other is an on base machine with some modest power potential of his own. Haven't read anywhere where they didn't like their bats so I'm happy.

    Rahier is a steal and as good as a 4th #1 pick. Get him signed. May take more than slot but they may get Nick for less so the money should be there.

    Langfield, Moscot, and Felt are collegiate arms, likely to sign - Langfield is a raw power arm. #10 Jeremy Kivel is a hard sign more than likely but a major prospect if they can get it done. Another guy who would ave been higher on the board if the signability issue wasn't there.
    If the Reds somehow signed all 10 of there top ten picks this would be an incredible draft.
    The 11-15 picks were all college guys, all signable, Brent Peterson, the SS from California was selected by the Reds in 2010. Reports are that he is ready to sign. Klimesh #15 may be the best of this crop and some had him going in the top ten. He dominated at Trinity College, has three pitches and hits 95.
    Just about the best draft I've watched in terms of my own feelings about the players drafted. Of course, that means squat, but at least for a little while I can believe my team had an incredible draft and we have 4 or 5 future Hall-of-Famers waiting to play!

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 Reds Draft Recap

    I just did my draft review and I gave the Reds an A. In a weak draft, they were able to add a lot of upside guys in the first 5 rounds and filled out plenty of 'depth guys' as well. I really don't think you could have asked for more than they did in a draft that was considered to be historically poor.

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    Re: 2012 Reds Draft Recap

    Of course it is difficult to grade these things, especially in the same week that they occur. However, while I really like what the Reds did with their picks in going for upside, it is hard for me to give them an A given that there are 5-7 teams who I feel got a better haul. Operating under a curve assumption is what bumps them back to a B/B+ for me.
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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 Reds Draft Recap

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Of course it is difficult to grade these things, especially in the same week that they occur. However, while I really like what the Reds did with their picks in going for upside, it is hard for me to give them an A given that there are 5-7 teams who I feel got a better haul. Operating under a curve assumption is what bumps them back to a B/B+ for me.
    I don't really like the idea of grading on the curve because all teams aren't operating at the same level. Draft budgets are entirely different as was the value of first round picks.

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    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 Reds Draft Recap

    I think the Reds did as well or better than any team in the draft with the same or fewer picks who wasn't in the top ten draftwise. I like the Astros and Nationals better and the Cards after screwing up their first 2 picks finished strong but then they had a bazillion picks and still have a couple of tough signs to make their draft look good.

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    Re: 2012 Reds Draft Recap

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    I think the Reds did as well or better than any team in the draft with the same or fewer picks who wasn't in the top ten draftwise. I like the Astros and Nationals better and the Cards after screwing up their first 2 picks finished strong but then they had a bazillion picks and still have a couple of tough signs to make their draft look good.
    Not to pick nits, but the Nationals didn't pick in the top ten.

    If the Reds had taken Giolito over Travieso and the rest of the draft was the exact same, I'd give them an A+. And I agree that the Cardinals (like the Jays) will have to sign some of their tougher signs in order to make their class look really good.

    The Padres with Fried, Eflin and Weichel really loaded up on upside. Jankowski was a similar mold to Gelalich.
    Last edited by Benihana; 06-07-2012 at 04:56 PM.
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    Re: 2012 Reds Draft Recap

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Not to pick nits, but the Nationals didn't pick in the top ten.

    If the Reds had taken Giolito over Travieso and the rest of the draft was the exact same, I'd give them an A+. And I agree that the Cardinals (like the Jays) will have to sign some of their tougher signs in order to make their class look really good.

    The Padres with Fried, Eflin and Weichel really loaded up on upside. Jankowski was a similar mold to Gelalich.
    You may have seen a domino effect with Giolito, however, as his $ may have prevented them from scoring someone like Rahier a little later.

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    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 Reds Draft Recap

    And when the ligament came off Giolito's elbow and Travieso was at least closing for someone that pick would bite you. I'm convinced the Reds who were linked to Giolito by some pundits, looked at his health and made their pick accordingly. You don;t pass on an arm like Giolito's unless you're really worried about his health.

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    Re: 2012 Reds Draft Recap

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    And when the ligament came off Giolito's elbow and Travieso was at least closing for someone that pick would bite you. I'm convinced the Reds who were linked to Giolito by some pundits, looked at his health and made their pick accordingly. You don;t pass on an arm like Giolito's unless you're really worried about his health.
    Of course that may be true. Only time will tell.

    Don't get me wrong, I liked the Reds draft a lot. But you can't write Travieso into the big leagues -even as a closer- just yet. The ligament came off of Strasburg's elbow after they drafted him, and he (and the team) are doing just fine with that pick.
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