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Thread: The Cuban Missile

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    The Cuban Missile

    Has a pitcher ever had a 5.8 K/BB ratio with at least 30 IP in the major leagues? What about a 0.55 WHIP? 16.1 K/9? K/(BB+H) > 3?
    What is the record number of innings a pitcher has gone without giving up an earned run?

    I thought we might as well get a thread going in tribute to what has been the greatest two months (and counting) that a Reds pitcher has ever had...
    Last edited by Benihana; 06-07-2012 at 11:27 AM.
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    Re: The Cuban Missile

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Has a pitcher ever had a 5.8 K/BB ratio with at least 30 IP in the major leagues? What about a 0.55 WHIP? 16.1 K/9? K/(BB+H) > 3?
    What is the record number of innings a pitcher has gone without giving up an earned run?

    I thought we might as well get a thread going in tribute to what has been the greatest two months (and counting) that a Reds pitcher has ever had...
    Or a 3.25 K/Walks+Hits Combined
    When people say that I dont know what Im talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
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    Re: The Cuban Missile

    We are witnessing something truely special.
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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: The Cuban Missile

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Has a pitcher ever had a 5.8 K/BB ratio with at least 30 IP in the major leagues? What about a 0.55 WHIP?
    What is the record number of innings a pitcher has gone without giving up an earned run?

    I thought we might as well get a thread going in tribute to what has been the greatest two months (and counting) that a Reds pitcher has ever had...
    Last year alone, 9 pitchers had a K/BB of at least 5.8 in 30+ IP, led by Sergio Romo's 14.0 (13.1 K/9, 0.9 BB/9).

    The raw K rate and the WHIP are much more impressive than the K/BB.

    That said, who hear knows of Ernesto Frieri? He's a rookie reliever for the Angels with a higher K/9 than Chapman. Who's talking about his historic season?

    That's why people want Chapman to start. He's an awesome reliever and his start to the season has been a lot of fun to watch. But even awesome relievers aren't all that uncommon. Every year there are 10-15 relievers who just blow away the league. What differentiates the Brad Lidges of the world from the John Axfords is longevity. The raw talent isn't all that special.

    But where championships come from is not from career value, from being dominant for a small number of innings over many seasons. It's from being dominant over a large number of innings with a given season. And there are few pitchers with the ability to do that.

    The difference between a closer who throws 60 innings and never allows a run and one who has an ERA of 3.00 is about 2 wins. The difference between a starter who has a 2.50 ERA and one who has a 4.50 ERA is about 5 wins. In other words, if a guy can give you 200 IP of an ERA south of 3.50, there's basically nothing he can do as a reliever that will provide you as much value.

    Chapman has been flat out awesome and is pacing for a historic season. But if he were in the rotation giving the Reds a run of the mill #2 starter season, we'd be better off.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    For a Level Playing Field RedFanAlways1966's Avatar
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    Re: The Cuban Missile

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    The difference between a closer who throws 60 innings and never allows a run and one who has an ERA of 3.00 is about 2 wins. The difference between a starter who has a 2.50 ERA and one who has a 4.50 ERA is about 5 wins. In other words, if a guy can give you 200 IP of an ERA south of 3.50, there's basically nothing he can do as a reliever that will provide you as much value.

    Chapman has been flat out awesome and is pacing for a historic season. But if he were in the rotation giving the Reds a run of the mill #2 starter season, we'd be better off.
    Yes, yes and yes to RedsManRick. But due to injuries... give me a break. The REDS braintrust just amazes me with not trying to get Champman in the starting rotation.
    Small market fan... always hoping, but never expecting.

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    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: The Cuban Missile

    I have no idea why people want to put Chapman in the rotation when A. he's having the most dominant season in the history of baseball when it comes to relieving and B. the very reason why the Reds have taken off is because it's lock down from the 6th inning on for the Reds. The clear difference between the Reds and the rest of the division is a dominant bullpen. Dominant bullpens are more important than ever in today's game. That was proven in last year's playoffs and it has trended that way for a while now. As a person that's a fan of another NL Central team, I pray to god that the Reds put Chapman in the starting rotation. That will leave more uncertainty in the Reds bullpen and you do not know what you will get from Chapman in the rotation. Right now you have a known quantity. I don't know why the Reds should mess with it.
    Our next home stand follows this road trip.

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    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: The Cuban Missile

    Also, I know the Reds are paying him a lot of money. It's 6 years, 30.25 million dollars. However, if you look at most high octane, lockdown closers in the game; they tend to make way more than 5 million per season. If the Reds were paying him elite starting pitching money (about 17-20 million per year), it would be one thing. Right now, the Reds in my opinion have an absolute steal of a deal paying the best closer in the game just $5 million per year.

    Edit: I looked up Papelbon's contract and his is 4 years, 50 million. Yeah, I think the Reds are getting a great deal for their closer.
    Last edited by MikeThierry; 06-07-2012 at 01:10 PM.
    Our next home stand follows this road trip.

    I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah. says on the day before Easter

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    Pre-tty, pre-tty good!! MWM's Avatar
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    Re: The Cuban Missile

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    That said, who hear knows of Ernesto Frieri? He's a rookie reliever for the Angels with a higher K/9 than Chapman. Who's talking about his historic season?
    I do. He was a great pickup in my rotisserie league before he was anointed closer. The difference with Frieri is that he's walked 15 guys in 26 innings. That's not sustainable.That's 25 baserunners in 26 innings. Still very impressive, but in 29 innings Chapman has allowed only 7 hits and 9 walks. That's just insane.
    Grape works as a soda. Sort of as a gum. I wonder why it doesn't work as a pie. Grape pie? There's no grape pie. - Larry David

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    For a Level Playing Field RedFanAlways1966's Avatar
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    Re: The Cuban Missile

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    I have no idea why people want t put Chapman in the rotation...
    Valid points, Mike, but I have to disagree for these reasons:

    A. The win differential that RedsManRick points out. Cards fans should want him in the BP for that reason.

    B. Hope you get me 27 outs (more like 18-24 outs) every 5 games or hope you get me (on average for a .600 team) 9 outs or less every 5 games. The math tells me the former over the latter. Perhaps "modern thinking" does not agree but every out is equally important, 1st out vs. 27th out. Every 5 games there are about 135 outs (extra innings and losing in 9 innings on the road being exceptions). 20 outs of 135 outs = 14.8%. 9 outs of 135 outs = 6.7%.
    Small market fan... always hoping, but never expecting.

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    Re: The Cuban Missile

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Last year alone, 9 pitchers had a K/BB of at least 5.8 in 30+ IP, led by Sergio Romo's 14.0 (13.1 K/9, 0.9 BB/9).

    The raw K rate and the WHIP are much more impressive than the K/BB.

    That said, who hear knows of Ernesto Frieri? He's a rookie reliever for the Angels with a higher K/9 than Chapman. Who's talking about his historic season?

    That's why people want Chapman to start. He's an awesome reliever and his start to the season has been a lot of fun to watch. But even awesome relievers aren't all that uncommon. Every year there are 10-15 relievers who just blow away the league. What differentiates the Brad Lidges of the world from the John Axfords is longevity. The raw talent isn't all that special.

    But where championships come from is not from career value, from being dominant for a small number of innings over many seasons. It's from being dominant over a large number of innings with a given season. And there are few pitchers with the ability to do that.

    The difference between a closer who throws 60 innings and never allows a run and one who has an ERA of 3.00 is about 2 wins. The difference between a starter who has a 2.50 ERA and one who has a 4.50 ERA is about 5 wins. In other words, if a guy can give you 200 IP of an ERA south of 3.50, there's basically nothing he can do as a reliever that will provide you as much value.

    Chapman has been flat out awesome and is pacing for a historic season. But if he were in the rotation giving the Reds a run of the mill #2 starter season, we'd be better off.
    Do those win totals take into account the leverage value of the innings pitched?

    Over a season, 20 runs given up in the final innings of close games are about as damaging as 44 runs given up in the first 6 innings of a game. 20 runs given up by a closer over a season, probably means around 10-15 loses. A extra 1.5 runs a game for a starter probably means about the same.
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

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    Re: The Cuban Missile

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeThierry View Post
    I have no idea why people want to put Chapman in the rotation when A. he's having the most dominant season in the history of baseball when it comes to relieving and B. the very reason why the Reds have taken off is because it's lock down from the 6th inning on for the Reds. The clear difference between the Reds and the rest of the division is a dominant bullpen. Dominant bullpens are more important than ever in today's game. That was proven in last year's playoffs and it has trended that way for a while now. As a person that's a fan of another NL Central team, I pray to god that the Reds put Chapman in the starting rotation. That will leave more uncertainty in the Reds bullpen and you do not know what you will get from Chapman in the rotation. Right now you have a known quantity. I don't know why the Reds should mess with it.
    I wish the Cardinals had left Wainwright in the bullpen.

  13. #12
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: The Cuban Missile

    I agree with 757690 on this one. Right now, I would rather have a lock down bullpen and average starting pitching than I would great starting pitching and an average bullpen. I'm biased a bit over this. What happened last year in the playoffs kind of changed the way I view how pitching these days. Giving up 4 runs as a starting pitching is still livable because your team has plenty of innings to make up those runs against the opposing starter. Not being able to close out games with a 1 run lead or keep it close in the later innings is killer and harder for teams to recover from. Teams, by the later innings, are using the matchup advantage where there isn't a matchup advantage while the starter is in the game.
    Our next home stand follows this road trip.

    I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah. says on the day before Easter

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    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: The Cuban Missile

    Quote Originally Posted by puca View Post
    I wish the Cardinals had left Wainwright in the bullpen.
    Kind of a different situation because Waino has 3-4, even 5, out pitches, when healthy of course. I know Chapman has a devistating fastball and slider but his other pitches aren't there just yet.

    Edit: Come to think about it, Waino even has two different kinds of curve balls he uses. He has the 12-6 hammer but he also uses a faster curve he gets over for strikes.
    Last edited by MikeThierry; 06-07-2012 at 01:42 PM.
    Our next home stand follows this road trip.

    I just want to tell everyone Happy Easter and Happy Hanukkah. says on the day before Easter

    Mike Shannon

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    Re: The Cuban Missile

    Quote Originally Posted by RedFanAlways1966 View Post
    Valid points, Mike, but I have to disagree for these reasons:

    A. The win differential that RedsManRick points out. Cards fans should want him in the BP for that reason.

    B. Hope you get me 27 outs (more like 18-24 outs) every 5 games or hope you get me (on average for a .600 team) 9 outs or less every 5 games. The math tells me the former over the latter. Perhaps "modern thinking" does not agree but every out is equally important, 1st out vs. 27th out. Every 5 games there are about 135 outs (extra innings and losing in 9 innings on the road being exceptions). 20 outs of 135 outs = 14.8%. 9 outs of 135 outs = 6.7%.
    So the outs that Simon gets with no one on base in the 6th inning of an 8-1 game, are equal to the outs that Chapman gets with the bases loaded in the 9th of a 4-3 game?
    "Man, the pitch looks fast, even in slow motion." Thom Brennaman on Chapman's fastball.

  16. #15
    For a Level Playing Field RedFanAlways1966's Avatar
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    Re: The Cuban Missile

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    So the outs that Simon gets with no one on base in the 6th inning of an 8-1 game, are equal to the outs that Chapman gets with the bases loaded in the 9th of a 4-3 game?
    Yes. It takes 27 outs to win a game. Out 1, out 12, out 27... all equally important. Do you think young stud pitchers (for lack of a better term) are groomed to be starters or relievers?
    Small market fan... always hoping, but never expecting.


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