Turn Off Ads?
Results 1 to 6 of 6

Thread: Does WAR severly underrate the closer?

  1. #1
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    239

    Does WAR severly underrate the closer?

    Just doing some of my own calculations on Chapman, and the leverage he's been in I find his impact on W/L much greater than WAR.
    Compared to a .5 ERA, based on stochastic simulation, he has .4 more wins
    Compared to a 1.5 ERA, the team has 1.2 more wins
    Compared to a 2.5 ERA, the team has 1.9 more wins
    Compared to a 3.5 ERA, the team has 2.6 more wins
    And compared to replacement level the team has 3.5 more wins, where as

    WAR values him at 1.8, and points to statistical problems when trying to measure the extremes with averages.

    On a similair note, during Mariano Rivera's career as a closer(did not include this year - not using incompletes, or his first year - not yet a finisher)

    The Yankees in that time frame have averaged 3 wins / year above Pythag, if you credit that due to leverage as opposed to luck (which I believe) it turns Rivera into a 6.5 Win/Year player. Also of note, the Yankees worst year compared to Pythag is 2007, the only year as a closer Rivera had an ERA over 3. The Yankees best year compared to Pythag, also happened to be Rivera's highest save output - 2004 (+12 compared to Pythag)

    The 5 years Eckersly averaged under a 3 ERA as a closer the A's averaged +4.4 over Pythag.

    Between 1996 and 2007, the Padres only had one year below Pythag- 2003 the year Trevor Hoffman was injured, they were also below in 1995 and 2008, the two years with a 3+ ERA as a closer All in all only 1 in 32 years of these closers did the closer have a era lower than 3 and the team finished below Pythag, so is above below Pythag more luck, or more skill of a closer?

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Member Ironman92's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Posts
    3,726
    His WAR should be threeve

  4. #3
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Findlay, OH
    Posts
    450

    Re: Does WAR severly underrate the closer?

    WAR is based on 10 Runs being one win of I am not mistaken, and is not meant to say how many games a player won for this team. Just roughly how many wins a player is worth. Chapman cannot control the circumstances of the game when he enters, so it should have no effect on his overall value.

    What effect he has on the overall W/L record is a separate issue. Although I don't necessarily buy leverage in terms of evaluating a player. Even though it might have some mental affect on the players mind, it shouldn't. Theoretically it should have no impact on how a pitcher pitches. I can't remember the exact percentage, but the total number of wins a team gets when leading going into the 9th hasn't changed a bit since Closers became a thing. If I find the numbers later I will post them.

  5. #4
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    239

    Re: Does WAR severly underrate the closer?

    WAR is based on 10 Runs being one win of I am not mistaken, and is not meant to say how many games a player won for this team. Just roughly how many wins a player is worth. Chapman cannot control the circumstances of the game when he enters, so it should have no effect on his overall value.

    War assumes a bit of linearity, which underrates high leverage situations kind of fits my point.

    Would Joey Votto be worth more if you could pick when he bats each game? Or if there are 2 out in the first, and you can just walk him. Situations define what a player is worth, and how the other team reacts to those situations, WAR uses middling statistics for a situation that doesn't fit the model, it's a good model for hitters, decent for starters, but bad in a lot of other situations.

  6. #5
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Findlay, OH
    Posts
    450

    Re: Does WAR severly underrate the closer?

    Quote Originally Posted by UCBrownsfan View Post
    WAR is based on 10 Runs being one win of I am not mistaken, and is not meant to say how many games a player won for this team. Just roughly how many wins a player is worth. Chapman cannot control the circumstances of the game when he enters, so it should have no effect on his overall value.

    War assumes a bit of linearity, which underrates high leverage situations kind of fits my point.

    Would Joey Votto be worth more if you could pick when he bats each game? Or if there are 2 out in the first, and you can just walk him. Situations define what a player is worth, and how the other team reacts to those situations, WAR uses middling statistics for a situation that doesn't fit the model, it's a good model for hitters, decent for starters, but bad in a lot of other situations
    .
    Hmmm, I think I see your point a little more clearly after that bolded part. Still not sure if I agree with it, but it is interesting. Being able to pick and choose a players situation can be beneficial if it is the best player on the team/in the league. But as you say, you can't really do this with hitters, while you can with relievers. These high leverage situation stats you were playing with, do they factor in the player at bat? Unless I am mistaken, they do not. The quality of competition will make a significant difference on the worth of these situations, and often times they will average out over the course of a long season.

  7. #6
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    239

    Re: Does WAR severly underrate the closer?

    If you randomly added 10 runs to Chapman this season, we would lose at least 3 more games if not more.

    Which is why teams with great closers almost always beat pythag.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25