Cingrani is our best pitching prospect IMO

[M2]

2. When scouts talk about developing a starters array of pitches, they are referring to one in the Majors, not one that might work in the minors. So no, it isn't wrong at this point.

3. Not really, because he is throwing his slider a lot more often than his change up. If he isn't throwing his change up, it doesn't matter how good it is. He is 90-95% FB/SL.

2. When scouts talk it's often not out of their mouths. And can you point to the scouts who thought Cingrani was ready to rocket into AA at this point in his career? He's doing better than his mom probably expected. About the only person I can think of who thought Cingrani deserved serious prospect consideration is Sickels. Anyway, Cingrani is ahead of where pretty everyone thought he'd be and I'm not interested in your goal post shifting.

3. So you're saying he could be even better if he threw the change more? I don't care about pitch frequency. If his change is better, then he's got an ace up his sleeve. It's all semantics I suppose, but I define prospects by their best pitches, not their pitching patterns. For instance, maybe he's throwing the slider more in an effort to develop it. On a side note, if he's throwing the slider that much and he's doing this well then I'm going out on a limb and guessing his slider at least has some promise if not necessarily the consistency it ultimately needs.

[Blitz Dorsey]

2. When scouts talk it's often not out of their mouths. And can you point to the scouts who thought Cingrani was ready to rocket into AA at this point in his career? He's doing better than his mom probably expected. About the only person I can think of who thought Cingrani deserved serious prospect consideration is Sickels. Anyway, Cingrani is ahead of where pretty everyone thought he'd be and I'm not interested in your goal post shifting.

3. So you're saying he could be even better if he threw the change more? I don't care about pitch frequency. If his change is better, then he's got an ace up his sleeve. It's all semantics I suppose, but I define prospects by their best pitches, not their pitching patterns. For instance, maybe he's throwing the slider more in an effort to develop it. On a side note, if he's throwing the slider that much and he's doing this well then I'm going out on a limb and guessing his slider at least has some promise if not necessarily the consistency it ultimately needs.

And there's this.

[dougdirt]

Ahh, Dougie, you're so sweet. Please let me know next time you watch him live so I can come with you. I'll bring the Now n' Laters.

Then I'll know why his LIGHTS OUT STATS are so freakin' tricky for you. "Man, I can't believe this Double-A pitcher one year removed from college ball hasn't perfected his breaking pitches yet. Never mind his incredible stats since he's turned pro. He just doesn't have that curve down yet. I see reliever in his future. No way he'll be able to improve on his breaking pitches at his old age."

[sarcasm off]

Meet you in Florida in 5 weeks. Be there.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Meet you in Florida in 5 weeks. Be there.

Florida? Dude, are you flying? If you're driving, I'll meet up with you in Dayton, Cincy, wherever.

Trust me, a road trip with Blitz > Your usual roadie.

[dougdirt]

3. So you're saying he could be even better if he threw the change more? I don't care about pitch frequency. If his change is better, then he's got an ace up his sleeve. It's all semantics I suppose, but I define prospects by their best pitches, not their pitching patterns. For instance, maybe he's throwing the slider more in an effort to develop it. On a side note, if he's throwing the slider that much and he's doing this well then I'm going out on a limb and guessing his slider at least has some promise if not necessarily the consistency it ultimately needs.

I am not even going to address #2. Doesn't make sense to do so since you don't want to actually continue the conversation.

And I am saying he would be more successful against Major Leaguers if he threw his change up more. But he, for whatever reason, doesn't trust the pitch. He hardly ever throws it.

At points earlier this season Cingrani was literally 90% fastball. So he is moving in the right direction. His slider can be a good pitch when it is on. But it is also a very flat fastball like pitch when it is off.

Right now, Cingrani simply has a fastball that is too good for a lot of these guys. He can throw it exactly where he wants it 80% of the time. I mean literally, the catcher doesn't move his glove at all and he hits the pocket with the thing. With deceptive arm action and good, late sink to it. That alone is going to get a whole bunch of guys out. But he needs to use his other pitches more and in the case of his slider, improve upon it, or he is going to wind up in the bullpen regardless of what his stats say about him.

[dougdirt]

Florida? Dude, are you flying? If you're driving, I'll meet up with you in Dayton, Cincy, wherever.

Trust me, a road trip with Blitz > Your usual roadie.

I don't fly. And you can find your own transportation, I already have a passenger.

[Blitz Dorsey]

I don't fly. And you can find your own transportation, I already have a passenger.

Listen, the tranny you're friends with can sit in the back seat. I'm riding shotgun or driving. Or else, I will continue to confuse you by making you read Cingrani's statistics and memorize them.

[M2]

I am not even going to address #2. Doesn't make sense to do so since you don't want to actually continue the conversation.

Plus, where else are you going to shift the goal post to? His slider isn't ready to get him to the HOF? The point is he's doing way better than anyone expected. Embrace that.

Right now, Cingrani simply has a fastball that is too good for a lot of these guys. He can throw it exactly where he wants it 80% of the time. I mean literally, the catcher doesn't move his glove at all and he hits the pocket with the thing. With deceptive arm action and good, late sink to it. That alone is going to get a whole bunch of guys out. But he needs to use his other pitches more and in the case of his slider, improve upon it, or he is going to wind up in the bullpen regardless of what his stats say about him.

I haven't noticed anyone arguing with that last point. However, that is spectacular work with the #1. I'm guessing he can add and subtract on it too, maybe even get it to sink in or out a bit. Anyway, that kind of fastball is the foundation for a dynamite pitcher. "He's only doing so well because he has a mind-boggling fastball" is the kind of criticism I'd like to see more often when it comes to Reds prospects.

[nate1213]

Doug, where does Cingrani compare to Travis Wood? Do you think he has more promise than Wood?

[Billy Hamilton's Legs]

I understand the skepticism considering he lacks a solid third pitch, but I was wondering if there are any good examples of guys with similar K/BB ratios throughout their minor league careers that didnt pan out. Travis Wood had a similar level of success in the minors, but his K/BB wasnt nearly as impressive as Cingrani's is.

[dougdirt]

Doug, where does Cingrani compare to Travis Wood? Do you think he has more promise than Wood?

More promise, not as likely to stick as a starter though, so there are two sides to the coin.

One interesting similarity with the two though is their fastball command. When Travis Wood was dominating in the minors and pitching well that first year in the Majors, he was doing so by dominating with his fastball by being able to throw it exactly where he wanted it. Wood eventually lost that command and he began to struggle. Now Wood was working mostly with a cutter and Cingrani is working with just your normal fastball (though it has outstanding life and movement). Cingrani might throw a tick harder as well and given his size advantage his pitches probably get on you a tad quicker as well.

[dougdirt]

I haven't noticed anyone arguing with that last point. However, that is spectacular work with the #1. I'm guessing he can add and subtract on it too, maybe even get it to sink in or out a bit. Anyway, that kind of fastball is the foundation for a dynamite pitcher. "He's only doing so well because he has a mind-boggling fastball" is the kind of criticism I'd like to see more often when it comes to Reds prospects.

It is a great foundation to work with. But you still need a #2 and #3. Until he starts showing them more and is more consistent with them, he isn't the Reds best pitching prospect. He has arguably the best fastball of any of the Reds pitchers. His 2nd pitch though, despite it being a plus change up, would rank 5th on the list of the other guys secondary pitches. His slider would also rank in that 4-5 range (with the change up of Stephenson and just ahead of the change up of Travieso).

[dougdirt]

Listen, the tranny you're friends with can sit in the back seat. I'm riding shotgun or driving. Or else, I will continue to confuse you by making you read Cingrani's statistics and memorize them.

You aren't confusing me at all with the stats. And I bet I know the stats better than you do.

[lollipopcurve]

that kind of fastball is the foundation for a dynamite pitcher. "He's only doing so well because he has a mind-boggling fastball" is the kind of criticism I'd like to see more often when it comes to Reds prospects.

How many times have we heard " a well-located fastball is the best pitch in baseball"? You add in that Cingrani has some funkiness/deception and you've got a legitimate starting pitching prospect. I imagine the Reds will give him every opportunity to start. It's going to take some time for him to develop and establish consistency with secondary stuff, but the fact he can locate a good fastball with precision and deception means once the secondary stuff is OK he'll be ready.

15 Ks (and what? 1 walk?) against a good AA team is no joke. Personally, I like him better than Corcino, because I think the upside is higher.

[UCBrownsfan]

Fine, how about Brandon Larson? Or Juan Francisco? How about Matt Maloney? How about Elizardo Ramirez? How about Danny Ray Herrera? What about Brandon Wood?

I could keep going on and on. But it wouldn't matter because I and others have told you 'the difference' and you just point back to the numbers and say 'nope!'. We told you about the "can't hit offspeed pitches well" with Cingrani. You don't seem to care to hear it because he is still producing.

Doug this is where your argument loses some beef I think - as I keep searching for the Cingrani stat comp in the minors. Yeah stats don't always translate, and maybe most often they don't to the minors, but Juan Francisco was never great, none of those guys listed were near as effective given age and level as Cingrani is.

I'd be interested to know how many Reds pitching prospects in the past 20-30 years can match Cingrani in all of these categories. So yeah maybe it won't translate, maybe he can't keep it up, but what he's doing so far is pretty rare and special, and potentially the best a Red's minor league pitcher has done in a few generations.

A year from being drafted: AA, over 100 minor league IP at a 7 K:BB ratio, under 1 WHIP - 6'4 or taller.