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Thread: Attendance by market size

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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Attendance by market size

    There is often much discussion of attendance around baseball, especially with the Reds.

    Thought it worth noting that the Reds are 4th in average attendance per game over a 3-year period (2009-2011) in relative proportion to their U.S. Census, Core-Based Statistical Area (CBSA).

    1. Milwaukee (2.35%)
    2. St. Louis (1.43%)
    3. Colorado (1.37%)
    4. Cincinnati (1.16%)
    5. Minnesota (1.10%)

    There are a few big market teams that do well (Boston, San Francisco, Baltimore, Seattle and Philly), though most of the big-hitters are in the bottom half. To be fair, some of the bigger teams do often sell-out their games, so they're sometimes limited in how many they can draw relative to their size.

    Here is the complete list...

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...28wd0hjM1I3SXc
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Attendance by market size

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    There is often much discussion of attendance around baseball, especially with the Reds.

    Thought it worth noting that the Reds are 4th in average attendance per game over a 3-year period (2009-2011) in relative proportion to their U.S. Census, Core-Based Statistical Area (CBSA).

    1. Milwaukee (2.35%)
    2. St. Louis (1.43%)
    3. Colorado (1.37%)
    4. Cincinnati (1.16%)
    5. Minnesota (1.10%)

    There are a few big market teams that do well (Boston, San Francisco, Baltimore, Seattle and Philly), though most of the big-hitters are in the bottom half. To be fair, some of the bigger teams do often sell-out their games, so they're sometimes limited in how many they can draw relative to their size.

    Here is the complete list...

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...28wd0hjM1I3SXc
    I wonder how Milwaukee would rank if you included Madison. It's only about 45 minutes from downtown Madison to Miller Stadium, but it's in a different CBSA -- like Dayton, but 4 times bigger.

    edit: I did the math, it would drop Milwaukee to about 1.7% -- still quite impressive.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 06-14-2012 at 06:13 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Hisssssssss Yachtzee's Avatar
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    Re: Attendance by market size

    Based on that list, I'd say the Florida teams and Oakland are definitely the low performers, underperforming relative to their market area.
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    Re: Attendance by market size

    I wonder what those figures would have looked like back in the 70's during the BRM days?

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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Attendance by market size

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    I wonder what those figures would have looked like back in the 70's during the BRM days?
    Hm, you've inspired me. I may have to do a separate look using mid-70's attendance and 1970 census figures. I'll consider that lol
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Attendance by market size

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    There is often much discussion of attendance around baseball, especially with the Reds.

    Thought it worth noting that the Reds are 4th in average attendance per game over a 3-year period (2009-2011) in relative proportion to their U.S. Census, Core-Based Statistical Area (CBSA).

    1. Milwaukee (2.35%)
    2. St. Louis (1.43%)
    3. Colorado (1.37%)
    4. Cincinnati (1.16%)
    5. Minnesota (1.10%)

    There are a few big market teams that do well (Boston, San Francisco, Baltimore, Seattle and Philly), though most of the big-hitters are in the bottom half. To be fair, some of the bigger teams do often sell-out their games, so they're sometimes limited in how many they can draw relative to their size.

    Here is the complete list...

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...28wd0hjM1I3SXc
    I don't see what we learn from this. Did anything here surprise you?

    I would say the numbers don't support SEA as a big market team. Their market is only slightly larger than Minnesota's and fraction of the big boys in Chicago, NY and LA

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    Re: Attendance by market size

    I think there's a problem here with two-team markets. Seven of the bottom eight (not counting Toronto), are from NYC, Chicago, LA or Bay Area. (The other is perennially sports blase Miami)

    Large markets. But they have to share.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Attendance by market size

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    I think there's a problem here with two-team markets. Seven of the bottom eight (not counting Toronto), are from NYC, Chicago, LA or Bay Area. (The other is perennially sports blase Miami)

    Large markets. But they have to share.
    I don't think it has anything to do with sharing. Even if you split LA or New York in half, they're bigger than almost all other markets.

    I think the bigger issue for these supersized markets is that they're often hubs with people coming from around the country and, especially in the case of New York, around the world. Often you'll probably find less of an attachment to baseball and the teams in general, so per capita, I imagine you won't get as much support. The sheer numbers obviously still support large attendance, but I think it makes sense the huge markets wouldn't be quite as popular.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Attendance by market size

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I don't see what we learn from this. Did anything here surprise you?

    I would say the numbers don't support SEA as a big market team. Their market is only slightly larger than Minnesota's and fraction of the big boys in Chicago, NY and LA
    I don't know that we "learned" anything, but I think it's a reminder that teams like Cincinnati are tremendously smaller markets and have a lot fewer people to draw from, which shows their attendance figures are much stronger given the percentage of population.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Attendance by market size

    Quote Originally Posted by Brutus the Pimp View Post
    I don't think it has anything to do with sharing. Even if you split LA or New York in half, they're bigger than almost all other markets.
    My point is that it throws your chart off. You'd have to split the two-team markets in half and run the numbers again.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

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    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
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    Re: Attendance by market size

    I would be really interested to know how much of the Reds patronage originates from Kentucky. I would guess at least 2/3 of Kentuckians who consider themselves an MLB fan are fans of the Reds, with the remaining 1/3 largely Cards fans in western Kentucky and your assorted Yankee/sCrub/Have to be different fan.
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    Re: Attendance by market size

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    My point is that it throws your chart off. You'd have to split the two-team markets in half and run the numbers again.
    Or combine the attendance of the two teams and run that number against population.

    Actually, you could probably analyze this type of data to determine which markets might actually be able to support a third team. For example, look at the attendance for the Yankees and Mets combined, compare it to potential attendance (capacity of the stadiums for both teams for all games), and then look at the comparison to market size. If both the Yankees and Mets are achieving attendance levels beyond what other teams are reaching and have a high number of sell outs, but still find themselves down on this list of attendance by market size, you have to wonder whether the problem is the percentage of the population interested in baseball, or whether the real problem is that there is potential greater demand for baseball in those markets that isn't being met because of a lack of available tickets for games. Could that demand be met by adding teams to the market? Should teams is ginormous market areas be allowed to have exclusive control over those markets even though they can't meet the demand of the ticket buying public?
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    Re: Attendance by market size

    Quote Originally Posted by Yachtzee View Post
    Or combine the attendance of the two teams and run that number against population.
    That'd work too.

    Actually, about 10 years ago, I did something close to what you describe above.

    I used, I believe the 1990 census #'s to rank Combined Statistical Areas of all US cities. MLB mirrors the top thirty cities pretty well. The only thing you'd have to do for a perfect match is move the Brewers (Milwaukee, just outside the top thirty) to Portland (just inside the top thirty).

    But that wasn't my point. I took the median city, Cleveland, and made that a "unit" of market size.

    NYC, IIRC, was over three "Clevelands". Baltimore-Washington was over two. LA and Chicago were well over two but not quite three. The Bay Area wasn't quite two.

    My conclusion was that LA, Chicago and BA had the right amount of teams (although barely for the BA -- witness the A's) but that you MLB would be wise to move some struggling franchises to metro NYC and DC.

    I thought this would also have the effect of undercutting a prime drive of player salaries -- the NYC-Bal-Boston axis.

    People forget that the O's used to be big time Free agent buyers. The Nationals took care of that. A team in Conn would take care of the Sox and Yanks.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

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    RZ Chamber of Commerce Unassisted's Avatar
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    Re: Attendance by market size

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I wonder how Milwaukee would rank if you included Madison. It's only about 45 minutes from downtown Madison to Miller Stadium, but it's in a different CBSA -- like Dayton, but 4 times bigger.

    edit: I did the math, it would drop Milwaukee to about 1.7% -- still quite impressive.
    Madison's population center is probably west of downtown.

    I used to live in Madison, close to the western edge of the city and it always took well over an hour to get to Miller Park. I didn't know many Madisonians who made that trip even once a year, although I knew plenty who made the trip north (and east to the old County Stadium) for Packers games.
    /r/reds

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    Re: Attendance by market size

    The Reds compete with other attractions in Cincinnati, it just happens that none of them are other MLB teams.The teams in LA and NY shouldn't be given any extra consideration in this because they decided to put a ball park across town from an existing team.


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