Elephant in the Room

[757690]

.762 in 198 PAs in 2009 and .773 in 583 PAs in 2010 are driving that number much higher than what we should expect going forward IMO. The league knows Stubbs act and they know how to get him out. I don't think we'll ever see those kinds of numbers from Stubbs again unless he learns some new tricks.

Over 600 PAs playing every day, I'd expect an OPS in the .650 to .675 range. If he drops to 400 PAs where he sits half the time against RHP, I'd expect an OPS in the .725 to .750 range. If he had .200 PAs where he only played against LHP, I'd expect .800 to .825.

After the first two weeks of the season, when he was adjusting to a new hitting approach, he's posted a .730 OPS. I expect that going forward for him. One thing that's suppressing his OPS this year, is his extremely low doubles rate. His HR rate is steady, but his SLG is way down. He's the anti-Votto, lol. I see that as a fluke and self adjusting, which should raise his OPS even further.

[CesarGeronimo]

Unfortunately, there's zero chance that Dusty does that much juggling day-in-day-out. And I'd be flat out SHOCKED if Rolen get's his BA over .220 or his OPS over .700. The last thing I want to see is Frazier in the outfield. He needs reps and lots of them at third.

I also don't see the Reds taking on much (if ANY) payroll. So any trades that happen will be severe rentals (and overpaying to negate the cost) or minimal upgrades I think.

As for Stubbs, he's still got the potential and I'm far from ready to give up on him. Ludwick, however, I've seen enough of. Sure, he's run into some longballs, but he has some of the worst AB's I've seen outside of pitchers. IMO he's the odd man out.

LF-Heisey full time
CF-Stubbs full time
RF-Bruce full time
3b-Frazier full time
SS-Cozart full time
2b-Phillips full time
1b-Votto full time
C-Hanigan/Mesoraco 50-50 split

Bench-a flat out mess...but there are options.

Rolen (r), back-up catcher (r), Valdez(r), Ludwick(r), Cairo(r), Janish(r), Harris(l), Negron(r), Navarro(s), Dorn(l)

So you think Dusty is going to put Rolen on the bench? I don't see that happening at all. If Rolen says he's healthy enough to play, he'll be in the lineup most of the time and batting no lower than 6th, I'm afraid. I would not be surprised to see him back in the cleanup spot, even though it would be ridiculous.

[OnBaseMachine]

.686 OPS last year, .673 OPS this year. He's not particularly young anymore. He's just not a very good hitter.

Even with that .686 OPS last year he posted a 2.6 WAR. I don't want any part of Heisey as the full-time CFer. I think he's a decent defender in CF but that's it. And his power has dropped off this year + he doesn't walk. Stubbs is a better player.

Edit - I like Heisey. I'm glad he's on the team but I like him as a 4th outfielder.

[lidspinner]

a few things to add....Stubbs is not a very good hitter, this team relies on him taking those gap shots away that Junior used to let drop, that doesnt happen anymore at all...We need Drew to play stellar defense and just be average at the plate, sure a .280+ average with walks would help but I am not going to ask for the entire package just yet, when you play that good of a CF, you deserve a little cushion. The downside is Drew is starting to get to that point in Baseball years where you have to ask yourself if he is done growing as a hitter, or does he still have a few more years left to season his skills at the plate? Thats a tough call and one that I am glad I dont have to make.

2nd point....has anyone thought about the possibility of Rolen coming back and simply telling Dusty to sit him and let Todd play more often? I know it sounds odd but Rolen is exactly the type of player to do such a thing.....I think it was Scott who basically put himself on the DL with a "injury".....I think Rolen knew that TF needed some time there and we needed his bat in the lineup if the Reds were to take over the central. If Rolen comes back and goes on absolute fire then great, but if he dont and he continues his 2011 like hitting, then I can see Scott going to Dusty and almost forcing TF into the lineup......of course, thats just my opinion but Rolen seems like the type of player that would rather see us win than see us lose because he is taking AB's from a better hitter. I could see Rolen spending a lot of time with Todd teaching him the finer points of 3rd base.......its going to be fun to watch and see what happens.

[WVRedsFan]

Even with that .686 OPS last year he posted a 2.6 WAR. I don't want any part of Heisey as the full-time CFer. I think he's a decent defender in CF but that's it. And his power has dropped off this year + he doesn't walk. Stubbs is a better player.

Totally agree with this. The great love for Heisey amazes me. He's a bench player on any other team in our league.

[reds44]

.723 career OPS plus 93/116 in SB. Even if he's just league average defensively in CF, that's a very valuable player.

Those numbers are trending down though, not up.

[reds44]

Even with that .686 OPS last year he posted a 2.6 WAR. I don't want any part of Heisey as the full-time CFer. I think he's a decent defender in CF but that's it. And his power has dropped off this year + he doesn't walk. Stubbs is a better player.

Edit - I like Heisey. I'm glad he's on the team but I like him as a 4th outfielder.

Again, you're arguing different things. If Stubbs and Heisey are both on the team, Stubbs should be the one playing. But can the Reds send Stubbs some place in exchange for something that improves the team? It really depends on how other GMs view him.

Is Heisey CF/Whoever Stubbs+ is traded for in LF > than Stubbs CF/Heisey+Ludwick LF?

Although this entire conversation could be irrelevant if Rolen comes back and plays well and Frazier continues to hit. I think Rolen is toast, though.

[_Sir_Charles_]

So you think Dusty is going to put Rolen on the bench? I don't see that happening at all. If Rolen says he's healthy enough to play, he'll be in the lineup most of the time and batting no lower than 6th, I'm afraid. I would not be surprised to see him back in the cleanup spot, even though it would be ridiculous.

Last sentence in my post....

I know it won't happen, but it's what I'd certainly prefer.

[Scrap Irony]

I expect Frazier to play quite a bit at both 3B and in LF.

As Rolen comes back, I expect him to play much more in LF.

He's (Frazier) largely the reason why the Reds have taken off in June. He's the second impact bat in the lineup. Add that to Phillips catching fire, Bruce's adequacy, and Votto's brilliance, and the Red offense is no longer blah. It's fun to watch.

Lots of K's. Some walks. Big power.

[REDREAD]

Drew Stubbs is underrated around here. Since moving to the #2 spot, Stubbs is hitting .280/.348/.476 with an .824 OPS in 143 atbats. His OPS is hovering around .400 in his other 61 atbats. He's getting on base ahead of Votto and is hitting for solid power. I like Heisey but I think he's better suited as a 4th outfielder.

I agree. Stubbs has really helped the offense from the #2 hole.
We were really fortunate to get great production out of Valdez while he filled in, but people are underestimating the impact of Stubbs.
Last year, in Stubbs' down year, he was still in the middle of the pack for WAR for CF. I really don't understand why people are down on Stubbs. A team like the Reds which is built on pitching really benefits from OF defense.

[Scrap Irony]

I really don't understand why people are down on Stubbs. A team like the Reds which is built on pitching really benefits from OF defense.

Stubbs' wOBA has dropped three years in a row and is less than league average. His UZR indicates a less than average to poor CF glove. Another, lesser heralded player can do just as well (or at least close enough) and is likely to cost less going forward.

He was 17th among all qualified CF last season in wOBA, ahead of only Angel Pagan, Austin Jackson, Colby Rasmus, and and Alex Rios. This season, he's ahead of only Jordan Schafer and Cameron Maybin.

Those of us that are "down" on Stubbs have good reason, IMO.

[Raisor]

I expect Frazier to play quite a bit at both 3B and in LF.

As Rolen comes back, I expect him to play much more in LF.

He's (Frazier) largely the reason why the Reds have taken off in June. He's the second impact bat in the lineup. Add that to Phillips catching fire, Bruce's adequacy, and Votto's brilliance, and the Red offense is no longer blah. It's fun to watch.

Lots of K's. Some walks. Big power.

I want Todd Frazier to play every day but I think Jay Bruce's 957 OPS has more to do with the June run more then Frazier's 836.

[Chip R]

You have to find out if Rolen is recovered from his shoulder problem. Personally I would have liked to have seen him do a longer minor league rehab assignment - like about 2 weeks - but eventually you have to find out if he can still hit at a major league level. The only way to do that is to put him in the lineup. Frazier's still going to get a lot of playing time in LF and at 3rd when Rolen's not playing there.

[OnBaseMachine]

Last night was another reason I don't want Heisey as the everyday CFer. That ball Brantley hit to lead off the 4th inning would have been caught by Stubbs. Heisey dropped it, and it eventually led to a three run inning. Stubbs catches that ball standing up.

And as I said earlier, I'm a Heisey fan. I'm glad he's on the team. I think he's a valuable 4th outfielder, but he's just that. Not an everyday player, IMO. I think he's average in CF, and I prefer to have someone with better range in CF.

[Boss-Hog]

Last night was another reason I don't want Heisey as the everyday CFer. That ball Brantley hit to lead off the 4th inning would have been caught by Stubbs. Heisey dropped it, and it eventually led to a three run inning. Stubbs catches that ball standing up.

I'm not a big Stubbs fan, but I agree with that.