Hoping to change my username to 75769024
Unfortunately, there's zero chance that Dusty does that much juggling day-in-day-out. And I'd be flat out SHOCKED if Rolen get's his BA over .220 or his OPS over .700. The last thing I want to see is Frazier in the outfield. He needs reps and lots of them at third.
I also don't see the Reds taking on much (if ANY) payroll. So any trades that happen will be severe rentals (and overpaying to negate the cost) or minimal upgrades I think.
As for Stubbs, he's still got the potential and I'm far from ready to give up on him. Ludwick, however, I've seen enough of. Sure, he's run into some longballs, but he has some of the worst AB's I've seen outside of pitchers. IMO he's the odd man out.
LF-Heisey full time
CF-Stubbs full time
RF-Bruce full time
3b-Frazier full time
SS-Cozart full time
2b-Phillips full time
1b-Votto full time
C-Hanigan/Mesoraco 50-50 split
Bench-a flat out mess...but there are options.
Rolen (r), back-up catcher (r), Valdez(r), Ludwick(r), Cairo(r), Janish(r), Harris(l), Negron(r), Navarro(s), Dorn(l)
If you're wanting a lefty/righty mix...then I kinda like adding Dorn & Navarro to the bench and saying goodbye to Harris, Negron and maybe one of Cairo/Rolen retires. Valdez, while normally putrid, gives you IF/OF defense. Navarro gives you bench options while allowing the backup catcher (Hanigan/Mesoraco) to actually pinchhit instead of being forced to save your backup C for emergencies. While Dorn gives you a lefty on the bench that actually has some pop. He can be Votto's back up and he can play LF too. Just a better fit than Costanzo was (I never understood bringing him up) and fits better than Harris as well who is just a noodle bat. If Cairo goes down/retires, then Janish is his replacement IMO.
The pen is just as much of a mess once Bray & Masset return. If I had to guess, I'd say Simon & Hoover are the odd men out. But I think I'd like to see LeCure sent out too and stretched out for a backup starter again and just go with an 11 man rotation.
11 pitchers
Cueto
Latos
Bailey
Leake
Arroyo
Ondrusek (r)
Arredondo (r)
Bray (l)
Masset (r)
Marshall (l) (I'd still prefer Marshall closing, but that ain't happening)
Chapman (l)
14 position players
Votto 1b (l)
Phillips 2b (r)
Cozart ss (r)
Frazier 3b (r)
Heisey lf (r)
Stubbs cf (r)
Bruce rf (l)
Hanigan c (r)
Mesoraco c (r)
Valdez IF/OF (r)
Ludwick OF (r)
Cairo IF (r)
Navarro C (s)
Dorn 1b/OF (l)
Much better lefty/righty splits on both the bench and in the pen. But it forces some tough choices IMO. Rolen retiring being the biggest. Simon, LeCure, Hoover sent down. Harris & Negron sent down too. It also keeps us pushing the minor league kids with upside before they're ready (HRod & Didi just because they hit from the left/switch).
I know it won't happen, but it's what I'd certainly prefer.
Sure, and the Reds have Bruce, Phillips and Votto. Both the Dodgers and Blue Jays have a big hole in LF. The Braves may be after one with Prado spending more time in the IF. All those teams have better prospects than the Reds. Not really sure the Yankees are set. A-Rod is way past his prime in the clean-up spot, not sure when Gardner will be back and they don't really have a DH. I'm not convinced that the Marlins are happy with Sanchez at 1B or Morrison's defense in LF. Willingham in LF with Lomo moving to 1B makes a lot of sense. The Tigers are manning LF with Ryan Raburn and waiting for Andy Dirks - nuff said there.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
I think no matter who from the current roster plays, the team is going to go flat against RHP. Phillips won't keep bucking his career trends against RHP and Frazier will suffer a real dry spell once the league figures out he can't lay off that pitch running away to the outside corner. Righty pitching with a breaking ball will eat him up the same way they do Stubbs IMO. None of the other RH bats will sustain an OPS north of .700 against RHP. That makes for a very short line-up consisting of Votto and Bruce. They need to add a lefty bat who hits well against RHP and can get on base in front of them.
As for the choices, Harris and Negron are dead men walking waiting for Rolen and Stubbs to be activated. Somebody else needs to go to make room for a lefty, whether its a good one like Dejesus, Venable or Seth Smith, a filler like Dorn or Navarro or an unproven like H-Rod. My vote is Ludwick at this point. Rolen is a serious upgrade at 3B defensively to Frazier and Frazier is an upgrade in LF compared to Ludwick (who isn't bad). Ludwick is the same auto out against RHP that I expect Rolen to be (and Stubbs, Heisey and Cozart and IMO Frazier going forward). May as well have the best defensvie guys because they all crush lefties. So, even though Ludwick has been a pretty good lefty killer, the Reds won't miss him much with all the other lefy killers on hand.
Last edited by mth123; 06-17-2012 at 08:01 PM.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Drew Stubbs is underrated around here. Since moving to the #2 spot, Stubbs is hitting .280/.348/.476 with an .824 OPS in 143 atbats. His OPS is hovering around .400 in his other 61 atbats. He's getting on base ahead of Votto and is hitting for solid power. I like Heisey but I think he's better suited as a 4th outfielder.
I agree with OBM. He's just not a very good LEADOFF hitter. I think it gets in his head.
I'd love to have the LH/RH breakdown on Stubbs' numbers in the #2 slot. Given that he's got a .619 OPS vs. RHPs, I've got a funny feeling what we're seeing with those #2 slot numbers is Stubbs making some hay vs. LHPs.
The interesting thing with Stubbs is that by the time he gets back, the Reds might be under the distinct impression that he's surplus to requirements. In the world of sports you're only as essential as you and circumstance can make you.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
I haven't analyzed the overall impact of Stubbs' being out of the lineup. So I can't comment definitively on how his recent absence has impacted the Reds.
I would note that in June of this year the Reds offense has the tenth most strikeouts in the NL. In May of this year the Reds offense had the sixth most strikeouts in the Nl.
I like the June brand of offense better.
Stubbs is a streak hitter like many of the Reds including Bruce, Phillips, and even Cozart. And many others. His value lies in his speed and defense. I think he is valuable if batting 7th. But Dusty is the master of that. He may be miscast.
www.ris-news.com
"You only have to bat a thousand in two things; flying and heart transplants. Everything else you can go 4-for-5."
-Beano Cook
Exactly, I just think he is what he is at this point. I'll be very surprised if he ever approaches his 2010 numbers again. He's not a bad player at all. With his speed and defense he's a useful starter who I think will have a lot of value on the market because of his skill set. I'm not bashing on Stubbs by any means, I just think he brings the Reds more value in a trade than he does actually on the field at this point.
If he doesn't have the value I think he does on the trade market, I have no problem hanging on to him.
.762 in 198 PAs in 2009 and .773 in 583 PAs in 2010 are driving that number much higher than what we should expect going forward IMO. The league knows Stubbs act and they know how to get him out. I don't think we'll ever see those kinds of numbers from Stubbs again unless he learns some new tricks.
Over 600 PAs playing every day, I'd expect an OPS in the .650 to .675 range. If he drops to 400 PAs where he sits half the time against RHP, I'd expect an OPS in the .725 to .750 range. If he had .200 PAs where he only played against LHP, I'd expect .800 to .825.
Last edited by mth123; 06-18-2012 at 06:47 AM.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please. |