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Thread: Elephant in the Room

  1. #31
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Elephant in the Room

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    You don't think the Twins would trade Willingham for Stubbs? I absolutely think they would.
    I wouldn't do that if I were the Reds. Willingham is a butcher in the field and owed $21M over the next few years. He's a three win player at best with his defense. I honestly think Stubbs out performs him WAR wise over the next few years.
    "I donít know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody".
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  3. #32
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Elephant in the Room

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Add a lefty bat to the mix. Deal Prospects for Dejesus (Lotzkar and Christiani is where I'd start). Deal Ludwick for salary relief since he's mostly just a lefty killer and the Reds have those coming out their ears.

    Against LHP, Rolen at 3B, Frazier in LF and Stubbs in CF. Bruce and Heisey split time in RF 50/50.

    Against RHP Rolen at 3B 50% of the time, Frazier 50% of the time. The Acquisition (Dejesus) in LF 100% of the time. Heisey and Stubbs each get 50% of the time in CF.

    Once in a while Rolen gets and extra day off with Cairo getting a start.

    For it to work, the team needs to switch Ludwick out for a LH Bat (Dejesus).

    Lacking an acquisition, then the PAs against RHP in LF are split between Frazier and Ludwick with Ludwick only playing when Frazier is playing 3B or needs a day-off.
    Unfortunately, there's zero chance that Dusty does that much juggling day-in-day-out. And I'd be flat out SHOCKED if Rolen get's his BA over .220 or his OPS over .700. The last thing I want to see is Frazier in the outfield. He needs reps and lots of them at third.

    I also don't see the Reds taking on much (if ANY) payroll. So any trades that happen will be severe rentals (and overpaying to negate the cost) or minimal upgrades I think.

    As for Stubbs, he's still got the potential and I'm far from ready to give up on him. Ludwick, however, I've seen enough of. Sure, he's run into some longballs, but he has some of the worst AB's I've seen outside of pitchers. IMO he's the odd man out.

    LF-Heisey full time
    CF-Stubbs full time
    RF-Bruce full time
    3b-Frazier full time
    SS-Cozart full time
    2b-Phillips full time
    1b-Votto full time
    C-Hanigan/Mesoraco 50-50 split

    Bench-a flat out mess...but there are options.

    Rolen (r), back-up catcher (r), Valdez(r), Ludwick(r), Cairo(r), Janish(r), Harris(l), Negron(r), Navarro(s), Dorn(l)

    If you're wanting a lefty/righty mix...then I kinda like adding Dorn & Navarro to the bench and saying goodbye to Harris, Negron and maybe one of Cairo/Rolen retires. Valdez, while normally putrid, gives you IF/OF defense. Navarro gives you bench options while allowing the backup catcher (Hanigan/Mesoraco) to actually pinchhit instead of being forced to save your backup C for emergencies. While Dorn gives you a lefty on the bench that actually has some pop. He can be Votto's back up and he can play LF too. Just a better fit than Costanzo was (I never understood bringing him up) and fits better than Harris as well who is just a noodle bat. If Cairo goes down/retires, then Janish is his replacement IMO.

    The pen is just as much of a mess once Bray & Masset return. If I had to guess, I'd say Simon & Hoover are the odd men out. But I think I'd like to see LeCure sent out too and stretched out for a backup starter again and just go with an 11 man rotation.

    11 pitchers
    Cueto
    Latos
    Bailey
    Leake
    Arroyo
    Ondrusek (r)
    Arredondo (r)
    Bray (l)
    Masset (r)
    Marshall (l) (I'd still prefer Marshall closing, but that ain't happening)
    Chapman (l)

    14 position players
    Votto 1b (l)
    Phillips 2b (r)
    Cozart ss (r)
    Frazier 3b (r)
    Heisey lf (r)
    Stubbs cf (r)
    Bruce rf (l)
    Hanigan c (r)
    Mesoraco c (r)
    Valdez IF/OF (r)
    Ludwick OF (r)
    Cairo IF (r)
    Navarro C (s)
    Dorn 1b/OF (l)

    Much better lefty/righty splits on both the bench and in the pen. But it forces some tough choices IMO. Rolen retiring being the biggest. Simon, LeCure, Hoover sent down. Harris & Negron sent down too. It also keeps us pushing the minor league kids with upside before they're ready (HRod & Didi just because they hit from the left/switch).

    I know it won't happen, but it's what I'd certainly prefer.
    2014 predictions:
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    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
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  4. #33
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Elephant in the Room

    Quote Originally Posted by Vottomatic View Post
    What teams?

    San Fran maybe. Not the Dodgers. Diamondbacks already have big bats.

    St. Louis has plenty of big bats with Beltran and Holiday. Pirates won't pony up prospects or pay enough.

    Nationals are set. Miami is set. Mets and Braves are fading. Mets have salary/money problems to begin with.

    Tigers have enough big bats. Indians are fading. Rangers are set with big bats.

    Yankees are set. Tampa won't do anything. Toronto has Bautista and EE.

    I really don't see a HUGE market where all these so-called teams are lining up to add a big bat. Especially a rental.

    Personally, I think the Reds should strike now and maybe overpay a little bit to get it done. Then let's put some distance between us and the Central.
    Sure, and the Reds have Bruce, Phillips and Votto. Both the Dodgers and Blue Jays have a big hole in LF. The Braves may be after one with Prado spending more time in the IF. All those teams have better prospects than the Reds. Not really sure the Yankees are set. A-Rod is way past his prime in the clean-up spot, not sure when Gardner will be back and they don't really have a DH. I'm not convinced that the Marlins are happy with Sanchez at 1B or Morrison's defense in LF. Willingham in LF with Lomo moving to 1B makes a lot of sense. The Tigers are manning LF with Ryan Raburn and waiting for Andy Dirks - nuff said there.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  5. #34
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Elephant in the Room

    Quote Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_ View Post
    Unfortunately, there's zero chance that Dusty does that much juggling day-in-day-out. And I'd be flat out SHOCKED if Rolen get's his BA over .220 or his OPS over .700. The last thing I want to see is Frazier in the outfield. He needs reps and lots of them at third.

    I also don't see the Reds taking on much (if ANY) payroll. So any trades that happen will be severe rentals (and overpaying to negate the cost) or minimal upgrades I think.

    As for Stubbs, he's still got the potential and I'm far from ready to give up on him. Ludwick, however, I've seen enough of. Sure, he's run into some longballs, but he has some of the worst AB's I've seen outside of pitchers. IMO he's the odd man out.

    LF-Heisey full time
    CF-Stubbs full time
    RF-Bruce full time
    3b-Frazier full time
    SS-Cozart full time
    2b-Phillips full time
    1b-Votto full time
    C-Hanigan/Mesoraco 50-50 split

    Bench-a flat out mess...but there are options.

    Rolen (r), back-up catcher (r), Valdez(r), Ludwick(r), Cairo(r), Janish(r), Harris(l), Negron(r), Navarro(s), Dorn(l)

    If you're wanting a lefty/righty mix...then I kinda like adding Dorn & Navarro to the bench and saying goodbye to Harris, Negron and maybe one of Cairo/Rolen retires. Valdez, while normally putrid, gives you IF/OF defense. Navarro gives you bench options while allowing the backup catcher (Hanigan/Mesoraco) to actually pinchhit instead of being forced to save your backup C for emergencies. While Dorn gives you a lefty on the bench that actually has some pop. He can be Votto's back up and he can play LF too. Just a better fit than Costanzo was (I never understood bringing him up) and fits better than Harris as well who is just a noodle bat. If Cairo goes down/retires, then Janish is his replacement IMO.

    The pen is just as much of a mess once Bray & Masset return. If I had to guess, I'd say Simon & Hoover are the odd men out. But I think I'd like to see LeCure sent out too and stretched out for a backup starter again and just go with an 11 man rotation.

    11 pitchers
    Cueto
    Latos
    Bailey
    Leake
    Arroyo
    Ondrusek (r)
    Arredondo (r)
    Bray (l)
    Masset (r)
    Marshall (l) (I'd still prefer Marshall closing, but that ain't happening)
    Chapman (l)

    14 position players
    Votto 1b (l)
    Phillips 2b (r)
    Cozart ss (r)
    Frazier 3b (r)
    Heisey lf (r)
    Stubbs cf (r)
    Bruce rf (l)
    Hanigan c (r)
    Mesoraco c (r)
    Valdez IF/OF (r)
    Ludwick OF (r)
    Cairo IF (r)
    Navarro C (s)
    Dorn 1b/OF (l)

    Much better lefty/righty splits on both the bench and in the pen. But it forces some tough choices IMO. Rolen retiring being the biggest. Simon, LeCure, Hoover sent down. Harris & Negron sent down too. It also keeps us pushing the minor league kids with upside before they're ready (HRod & Didi just because they hit from the left/switch).

    I know it won't happen, but it's what I'd certainly prefer.
    I think no matter who from the current roster plays, the team is going to go flat against RHP. Phillips won't keep bucking his career trends against RHP and Frazier will suffer a real dry spell once the league figures out he can't lay off that pitch running away to the outside corner. Righty pitching with a breaking ball will eat him up the same way they do Stubbs IMO. None of the other RH bats will sustain an OPS north of .700 against RHP. That makes for a very short line-up consisting of Votto and Bruce. They need to add a lefty bat who hits well against RHP and can get on base in front of them.

    As for the choices, Harris and Negron are dead men walking waiting for Rolen and Stubbs to be activated. Somebody else needs to go to make room for a lefty, whether its a good one like Dejesus, Venable or Seth Smith, a filler like Dorn or Navarro or an unproven like H-Rod. My vote is Ludwick at this point. Rolen is a serious upgrade at 3B defensively to Frazier and Frazier is an upgrade in LF compared to Ludwick (who isn't bad). Ludwick is the same auto out against RHP that I expect Rolen to be (and Stubbs, Heisey and Cozart and IMO Frazier going forward). May as well have the best defensvie guys because they all crush lefties. So, even though Ludwick has been a pretty good lefty killer, the Reds won't miss him much with all the other lefy killers on hand.
    Last edited by mth123; 06-17-2012 at 08:01 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  6. #35
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    Re: Elephant in the Room

    Drew Stubbs is underrated around here. Since moving to the #2 spot, Stubbs is hitting .280/.348/.476 with an .824 OPS in 143 atbats. His OPS is hovering around .400 in his other 61 atbats. He's getting on base ahead of Votto and is hitting for solid power. I like Heisey but I think he's better suited as a 4th outfielder.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  7. #36
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    Re: Elephant in the Room

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Drew Stubbs is underrated around here. Since moving to the #2 spot, Stubbs is hitting .280/.348/.476 with an .824 OPS in 143 atbats. His OPS is hovering around .400 in his other 61 atbats. He's getting on base ahead of Votto and is hitting for solid power. I like Heisey but I think he's better suited as a 4th outfielder.
    .686 OPS last year, .673 OPS this year. He's not particularly young anymore. He's just not a very good hitter.
    "The guy I think could be really good in center is Adam Dunn. If someone asked me if Dunn could be a center fielder for the next 10 years, if he started working on it, no one could explain to me why he couldnít do it." - Brad Kullman

  8. #37
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Elephant in the Room

    I agree with OBM. He's just not a very good LEADOFF hitter. I think it gets in his head.
    2014 predictions:
    99-63 WS champs (Cards take 2nd WC, Mil 3rd, Pit 4th, Chi 5th)
    Bruce/Votto neck and neck MVP race (neither takes it)
    Bailey CYA winner
    Hamilton ROY & GG

  9. #38
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Elephant in the Room

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Drew Stubbs is underrated around here. Since moving to the #2 spot, Stubbs is hitting .280/.348/.476 with an .824 OPS in 143 atbats. His OPS is hovering around .400 in his other 61 atbats. He's getting on base ahead of Votto and is hitting for solid power. I like Heisey but I think he's better suited as a 4th outfielder.
    I'd love to have the LH/RH breakdown on Stubbs' numbers in the #2 slot. Given that he's got a .619 OPS vs. RHPs, I've got a funny feeling what we're seeing with those #2 slot numbers is Stubbs making some hay vs. LHPs.

    The interesting thing with Stubbs is that by the time he gets back, the Reds might be under the distinct impression that he's surplus to requirements. In the world of sports you're only as essential as you and circumstance can make you.
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  10. #39
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    Re: Elephant in the Room

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    .686 OPS last year, .673 OPS this year. He's not particularly young anymore. He's just not a very good hitter.
    And, really, he hasn't been a very good hitter anywhere as a professional. Career .765 OPS guy for his career in the minors.
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  11. #40
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    Re: Elephant in the Room

    I haven't analyzed the overall impact of Stubbs' being out of the lineup. So I can't comment definitively on how his recent absence has impacted the Reds.

    I would note that in June of this year the Reds offense has the tenth most strikeouts in the NL. In May of this year the Reds offense had the sixth most strikeouts in the Nl.

    I like the June brand of offense better.

  12. #41
    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: Elephant in the Room

    Stubbs is a streak hitter like many of the Reds including Bruce, Phillips, and even Cozart. And many others. His value lies in his speed and defense. I think he is valuable if batting 7th. But Dusty is the master of that. He may be miscast.
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  13. #42
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Elephant in the Room

    Quote Originally Posted by Caveat Emperor View Post
    And, really, he hasn't been a very good hitter anywhere as a professional. Career .765 OPS guy for his career in the minors.
    Exactly, I just think he is what he is at this point. I'll be very surprised if he ever approaches his 2010 numbers again. He's not a bad player at all. With his speed and defense he's a useful starter who I think will have a lot of value on the market because of his skill set. I'm not bashing on Stubbs by any means, I just think he brings the Reds more value in a trade than he does actually on the field at this point.

    If he doesn't have the value I think he does on the trade market, I have no problem hanging on to him.
    "The guy I think could be really good in center is Adam Dunn. If someone asked me if Dunn could be a center fielder for the next 10 years, if he started working on it, no one could explain to me why he couldnít do it." - Brad Kullman

  14. #43
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Elephant in the Room

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'd love to have the LH/RH breakdown on Stubbs' numbers in the #2 slot. Given that he's got a .619 OPS vs. RHPs, I've got a funny feeling what we're seeing with those #2 slot numbers is Stubbs making some hay vs. LHPs.

    The interesting thing with Stubbs is that by the time he gets back, the Reds might be under the distinct impression that he's surplus to requirements. In the world of sports you're only as essential as you and circumstance can make you.
    Not to mention the fact Stubbs may have an .824 OPS hitting 2nd, but Cozart had a 1.016 OPS while hitting in front of Votto.
    "The guy I think could be really good in center is Adam Dunn. If someone asked me if Dunn could be a center fielder for the next 10 years, if he started working on it, no one could explain to me why he couldnít do it." - Brad Kullman

  15. #44
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    Re: Elephant in the Room

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    .686 OPS last year, .673 OPS this year. He's not particularly young anymore. He's just not a very good hitter.
    .723 career OPS plus 93/116 in SB. Even if he's just league average defensively in CF, that's a very valuable player.
    "I donít know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody".
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  16. #45
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Elephant in the Room

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    .723 career OPS plus 93/116 in SB. Even if he's just league average defensively in CF, that's a very valuable player.
    .762 in 198 PAs in 2009 and .773 in 583 PAs in 2010 are driving that number much higher than what we should expect going forward IMO. The league knows Stubbs act and they know how to get him out. I don't think we'll ever see those kinds of numbers from Stubbs again unless he learns some new tricks.

    Over 600 PAs playing every day, I'd expect an OPS in the .650 to .675 range. If he drops to 400 PAs where he sits half the time against RHP, I'd expect an OPS in the .725 to .750 range. If he had .200 PAs where he only played against LHP, I'd expect .800 to .825.
    Last edited by mth123; 06-18-2012 at 06:47 AM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS


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