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Thread: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

  1. #1
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    Brandon Phillips has answered the bell this year. After signing his big contract - probably the last big contract he’ll ever sign, he has come out on fire through 66 games and is on pace for a career season. It’s still early and Brandon will eventually cool off. And heat up again. And cool off. And heat up again. But barring any injuries, he’s on pace for another solid season, if not the best season of his career.

    Coming into this season, BP has played six full seasons with the Reds (since being rescued from purgatory in Cleveland by Mr. Krivsky) and in those six seasons, he’s averaged 21 HR’s, 81 RBI’s, 30 2B, 22 SB, and 166 H, to go along with a .779 OPS and .280 BA in an average of 650 plate appearances.

    In this year, his 7th with the Reds, DatDude is on pace for 22 HR’s, 103 RBI’s, 25 2B, 5 SB, and 169 H in 623 plate appearances and that’s with missing time early on with an hamstring injury. All but SB and 2B are up, as well as a .796 OPS and a .294 BA. His career OPS+ (including this season) is 97, but it is 103 through 4158 PA with the Reds - 90% of his career PA’s (he got such a bad start in Cleveland that it’s taken a while to get it up to 97). In his last 929 PA’s, his OPS+ is a very respectable 117.

    Brandon Phillips has five more years on his contract after this year. If he’s not extended in that timeframe, he’ll be a free agent at the end of the 2017 season, at the age of 36. Let’s say between this year and the next five he manages to keep up his 20+ HR, 80+ RBI, 160+ H, .780ish OPS pace he’s played to over the past six years with the Reds.

    By the end of 2017 (age 36) that would give him:

    250 HR
    1000+ RBI
    2000+ H
    200 SB (I’m giving him 10 per year for the next 6 seasons)
    100 OPS+ (103 for the next 6 years, will take his 97 up to 100)


    Phillips has won 3 gold gloves with pretty much a guarantee of a 4th this year. And we know that he’ll probably win a bunch more now that he’s on the gold glove train. Heck, he’ll probably win one or two towards the end of his career when he doesn’t even deserve them (see: Ozzie Smith). Let’s be conservative and say he finishes with 8 GG’s. HOFer’s Roberto Alomar, Ryne Sandberg, and Bill Mazeroski won 10, 9, and 8 respectively. Joe Morgan won 5. The only non-Hall of Famer’s with more than Phillips right now are Frank White (8), Bobby Richardson (5), Brett Boone (4), Bobby Grich (4), Orlando Hudson (4) and Craig Biggio (4). Biggio could be removed from that list as he’ll be in the HOF soon. It’s safe to assume that as long as he stays healthy, Phillips will pass all the non-Hall of Famer’s, with the exception of possibly Frank White (8) and that's being conservative.

    What’s important to note, though, is how spectacular Phillips is at 2B. He could go down as being the Ozzie Smith of his position. Sandberg won a few based on his name. In my opinion, Ron Oester deserved a GG or two, but Ryno was all the rage in the 80’s and seemed to win them simply on popularity. The same could be said for Ozzie (with 13 at SS) towards the end of his career, over one Barry Larkin, but I digress. The point is that that when a player comes around and transcends a position defensively, some warts with their offense (or lack of career counting stats) can go unnoticed when it comes to the HOF (see again: Ozzie Smith with a career OPS+ of 87).

    So the question is (as long as he puts up the offensive numbers mentioned above and wins at least 8 GG's), IN YOUR OPINION, can (or will) Brandon earn his way to the HOF by the time he plays out his contract in 2017?

    2000+ hits, 250+ HR, 1000+ RBI, 200+ SB, 100+ OPS…with at least 8 gold gloves. Is that enough to get him in the HOF?

    I say yes.

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  3. #2
    We Need Our Myths reds1869's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    I think the Hall of Fame is certainly a possibility for BP. The post season performance of the Reds over the next several years will have a lot to do with his election, fair or not. If he has a World Series ring or two when he retires I think he gets in.

  4. #3
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Not a chance

  5. #4
    OlafTheBlack Dan's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    Reds Hall of Fame, definitely. Cooperstown? Most likely not.
    Sabermetrics is this: A batter's goal is to extend the inning. Extend enough innings and you're going to score runs. Extend more innings than your opponent and you're going to score more runs than him.

    Forget the rain. It's never an official game until the Reds piss away a run between third base and home plate. - Bluegrass Redleg

  6. #5
    Knowledge Is Good Big Klu's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    I'm surprised that Ozzie's OPS+ is that high, though he did develop into an actual major-league hitter later in his career, in his early to mid 30's.
    Eric Stratton, Rush Chairman. Damn glad to meet ya.

  7. #6
    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    Maybe, but he has to put together another 6 seasons or so like he has the last 6 seasons.

    Then he'll certainly be in the ballpark.

    Too early to say.

    Sandberg won an MVP, and that counts for a ton (see Larkin, Barry)
    Last edited by Always Red; 06-19-2012 at 11:51 AM.

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    Re: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    If he can make at least 3 more AS teams (not including this year) by the end of his contract, I think the answer is yes.

    His career OPS is 40 points lower than Biggio (all in OBP). Biggio played 20 years and made 7 AS teams. Phillips will have played 16 years, and if he can make three more after this year, will have made 6 AS teams. I am assuming each year he makes the AS team, he will either win a GG or OPS at least .800- bringing his average closer to Biggio's.

    Therefore, 3 more AS appearances after this year, and Phillips is a HOFer.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Re: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    there is a part of me that says no way....then I read the 8 gold gloves and start thinking about how that has to put him into some consideration IF his offensive stats continue where they are at right now. I am still going to side on the "no" crowd. He very well could end up one of those players who just keep getting better with age, if that happens then he might make a strong argument but I dont see anything that screams HOF at this time looking forward. I would love nothing more than to be wrong.

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    Re: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    I am using the iphone to compare his stats on a app and if he keeps it up, you never know...I will leave it at that.

  11. #10
    Beer is good!! George Anderson's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    Baseballreference.com compares him to the following at age 30.

    1.Bobby Grich (933)
    2.Gil McDougald (922)
    3.Davey Johnson (921)
    4.Eric McNair (911)
    5.Juan Uribe (910)
    6.Felipe Lopez (910)
    7.Toby Harrah (910)
    8.Jeff Kent (907)
    9.Joe Gordon (906) *
    10.Bret Boone (905)


    Other than Gordon ( and he is questionable), none are in the HOF. So Phillips really needs to pick it up if he is ever to make it to Cooperstown which as of now doesn't look at all likely.
    "Boys, I'm one of those umpires that misses 'em every once in a while so if it's close, you'd better hit it." Cal Hubbard

  12. #11
    nothing more than a fan Always Red's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    Quote Originally Posted by George Anderson View Post
    Baseballreference.com compares him to the following at age 30.

    1.Bobby Grich (933)
    2.Gil McDougald (922)
    3.Davey Johnson (921)
    4.Eric McNair (911)
    5.Juan Uribe (910)
    6.Felipe Lopez (910)
    7.Toby Harrah (910)
    8.Jeff Kent (907)
    9.Joe Gordon (906) *
    10.Bret Boone (905)


    Other than Gordon ( and he is questionable), none are in the HOF. So Phillips really needs to pick it up if he is ever to make it to Cooperstown which as of now doesn't look at all likely.
    How did Felipe Lopez get into that group of comps??

  13. #12
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Not a chance
    First thing that went through my head.

    Phillips is a good player, but I have never once considered him the best second baseman in the game.

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    Re: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    I think he'll need several more 30/30 seasons, if he does that over the next 5 years, GG defense then he's in.

    Keys

    300 HR mark...
    2000 hits...
    8 to 10 GG.

  15. #14
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    Quote Originally Posted by bellhead View Post
    I think he'll need several more 30/30 seasons, if he does that over the next 5 years, GG defense then he's in.

    Keys

    300 HR mark...
    2000 hits...
    8 to 10 GG.
    so you are saying that he has no chance?

    He has topped 21 home runs once in his career, 5 years ago. He has 30 steals from 2010-2011 and was caught 21 times. He needs 5-7 more gold gloves and he is already on the wrong side of his prime. He could reach 2000 hits though.

  16. #15
    Member Crumbley's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    Four or five more seasons of playing at this level would make him a borderline leaning toward "no" guy in my mind. Another couple? Have to see how he ages.


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