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Thread: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

  1. #61
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    Quote Originally Posted by dfs View Post
    somewhere, I suspect it's in one of the historical abstracts, Bill James has an essay where he writes about the dual public perception of Allan Trammell and Lou Whittaker. It's an interesting read that might make you look at this differently.
    I've read it, and I think Lou was a great player, just a notch below HOF.

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  3. #62
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    I've read it, and I think Lou was a great player, just a notch below HOF.
    Lou Whitaker was one of my absolute favorite players growing up. I was ecstatic when he hit that homer against Dwight Gooden in the 1986 All-Star Game. At one point, I had every Lou Whitaker baseball card from Topps, Donruss, Fleer, and Sportflics.

    I still don't see him as a Hall of Famer.
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  4. #63
    My clutch is broken RichRed's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    Lou Whitaker was one of my absolute favorite players growing up. I was ecstatic when he hit that homer against Dwight Gooden in the 1986 All-Star Game. At one point, I had every Lou Whitaker baseball card from Topps, Donruss, Fleer, and Sportflics.

    I still don't see him as a Hall of Famer.
    I acquired Lou's rookie card in the same transaction that got me George Foster's rookie card (can't recall what I traded away) on one of the happiest days of my baseball card geekhood, but I don't quite see the HOF for Whitaker either.
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    Re: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    so you are saying that he has no chance?

    He has topped 21 home runs once in his career, 5 years ago. He has 30 steals from 2010-2011 and was caught 21 times. He needs 5-7 more gold gloves and he is already on the wrong side of his prime. He could reach 2000 hits though.
    Doug meant 20/20 seasons... He could reach 300 homeruns if his body doesn't go before 40...

    GG will come and he may reach double digits.

    To me he is right below borderline right now.

  6. #65
    Member Cedric's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    I always wonder what Jeff Stevens thinks about Brandon Phillips. His name is brought up all the time and I wonder how it feels being the stinker in such an enormously lopsided trade.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.

  7. #66
    Member MikeThierry's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    Getting back to the original discussion, I just don't see him making the HOF. He belongs in the Hall of Very Very Good. The only current Reds player that has a legit case when his career is over is Votto. If Votto keeps producing at the level he's produced the past couple of years, he's a lock in my opinion.
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  8. #67
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    From The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract (2001):

    Top Second Basemen (bold in HOF)

    1. Joe Morgan
    2. Eddie Collins
    3. Rogers Hornsby
    4. Jackie Robinson
    5. Craig Biggio
    6. Nap Lajoie
    7. Ryne Sandberg
    8. Charlie Gehringer
    9. Rod Carew
    10. Roberto Alomar
    11. Frankie Frisch
    12. Bobby Grich
    13. Lou Whitaker
    14. Billy Herman
    15. Nellie Fox
    16. Joe Gordon
    17. Willie Randolph
    18. Bobby Doerr
    19. Tony Lazzeri
    20. Larry Doyle
    21. Chuck Knoblauch
    22. Dick McAuliffe
    23. Davey Lopes
    24. Buddy Myer
    25. Johnny Evers
    26. Cupid Childs
    27. Jim Gilliam
    28. Red Schoendienst
    29. Bill Mazerowski
    30. Bid McPhee
    31. Frank White

    I don't have a recent version of this, but in 2001 James had Kent at #48 (half-way through his career), so I'm assuming he would be pretty high up on this list if it were done today.

    Chase Utley and Phillips might have also cracked the top 30 by now.

  9. #68
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    I don't think he's updated that list, I belong to his site I'll look this evening

  10. #69
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    Comparing recent inductees or soon-to-be (Sandberg, Alomar, and Biggio) to Whitaker, Grich and Randolph. I have included career OPS+, WAR, and dWAR, along with popularity (FAME) accomplishments (MVP, All-Star games, Gold Gloves) as well as counting stats (HR, RBI, H, SB, to go along with BA) in games played at Second Base.


    -Ryne Sandberg (1981-1997) = 114 OPS+, WAR 64.9, MVP x 1, Top 5 MVP x 3, AS x 10, GG x 9, dWAR 12.8, 1982 G @ 2B (92% games played)…..O stats @ 2B: 277 HR, 1007 RBI, 2225 H, 310 SB, .285 BA).

    -Roberto Alomar (1988-2004) = 116 OPS+, WAR 62.9, Top 5 MVP x 2, AS x 12, GG x 10, dWAR 2.4, 2304 G @ 2B (97% games played)…..O stats @ 2B: 207 HR, 1107 RBI, 2687 H, 470 SB, .301 BA).

    -Craig Biggio (1988-2007) = 112 OPS+, WAR 62.1, Top 5 MVP x 2, AS x 7, GG x 4, dWAR -3.8, 1978 G @ 2B (69% games played)…..O stats @ 2B: 226 HR, 883 RBI, 2230 H, 321 SB, .285 BA).

    -Lou Whitaker (1977-1995) = 117 OPS+, WAR 71.4, AS x 5, GG x 3, dWAR 15.4, 2228 G @ 2B (93% games played)…..O stats @ 2B: 239 HR, 1041 RBI, 2312 H, 140 SB, .277 BA).

    -Bobby Grich (1970-1986) = 125 OPS+, WAR 67.3, AS x 6, GG x 4, dWAR 16.2, 1740 G @ 2B (87% games played)…..O stats @ 2B: 197 HR, 753 RBI, 1609 H, 85 SB, .267 BA).

    -Willie Randolph (1975-1992) = 104 OPS+, WAR 63, AS x 6, GG x 0, dWAR 19.4, 2132 G @ 2B (97% games played)…..O stats @ 2B: 54 HR, 679 RBI, 2190 H, 269 SB, .276 BA).

    -Grich and Whitaker lead everyone in OPS+ and WAR.

    -Randolph (19.4), Grich (16.2), and Whitaker (15.4) lead all in dWAR (Defensive WAR).

    -Sandberg and Alomar dominate the popularity contest of All Star games and Gold Gloves.

    -Shocking that Randolph never won a GG, but he lost out to Grich ('75, '76), White ('77-'82, '86, '87), and Whitaker ('83-'85). Towards the end of his career Harold Reynolds ('88-'90) won a few and then Alomar took over ('91-'96, '98-'01).


    Top Second Basemen by dWAR (Career Defensive WAR/HOF in bold):

    Bill Mazerowski (1956-1972) = dWAR 23.8 (GG x 8)
    Joe Gordon (1938-1950) = dWAR 22.4
    Frankie Frisch (1919-1937) = dWAR 21.6
    Frank White (1973-1990) = dWAR 21.4 (GG x 8)
    Nellie Fox (1947-1965) = dWAR 20.9
    Willie Randolph (1975-1992) = dWAR 19.4 (GG x 0)
    Bobby Grich (1970-1986) = dWAR 16.2 (GG x 4)
    Bid McPhee (1882-1899) = dWAR 16.2
    Chase Utley (1882-1899) = dWAR 16.2
    Johnny Evers (1902-1929) = dWAR 15.4
    Lou Whitaker (1977-1995) = dWAR 15.4 (GG x 3)
    Red Schoendienst (1945-1963) = dWAR 15.2
    Mark Ellis (2002-) = dWAR 14.3 (GG x 0)
    Gil McDougald (1951-1960, 1336 G) = dWAR 14.0
    Rogers Hornsby (1915-1937) dWAR 13.9
    Bobby Doerr (1937-1951) = dWAR 13.4
    Lonny Frey (1933-1948, 1535 G) = dWAR 13.3
    Ryne Sandberg (1981-1997) = dWAR 12.8
    Charlie Gehringer (1924-1942) = dWAR 10.7
    Nap Lajoie (1896-1916) = dWAR 10.1
    Jackie Robinson (1947-1956) = dWAR 10.0

    Brandon Phillips is at 7.0 currently, which would put him at 13 to 14 if he keeps up his current pace by 2017. Surprising to see Utley that high already. He should probably have a gold glove by now. Now that Phillips is on the gold glove train (and Utley has had knee issues) it's unlikey he ever wins one.
    Last edited by BuckeyeRedleg; 06-20-2012 at 03:12 PM.

  11. #70
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    No, Phillips is not a future Hall of Famer.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  12. #71
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    No, Phillips is not a future Hall of Famer.
    I don't think there's much question about that. The bigger question is whether it's even possible.

  13. #72
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    Re: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    I don't think there's much question about that. The bigger question is whether it's even possible.
    I think he's on the wrong side of 30 to become what Utley did consistently before his injury.

    He's not much different than Pedroia, Cano, Kinsler, Zobrist, Uggla etc. It's hard to imagine that Phillips' defense wont decline over the next 5 years while his bat would suddenly become consistently better than the league average bat that has defined his career to this point.

    Phillips is a nice player. He's been an above average starting position player who has largely been a second tier middle infielder. That's a great career but not a HOF one. As he turns 31, its just tough seeing him as a player that not only doesn't decline but has significantly greater value than he has to this point.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  14. #73
    Et tu, Brutus? Brutus's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    I don't think he is a Hall-of-Famer by any means based on what he's already done, but it depends on how much longer he can sustain being a productive player.

    In the past 20 years, he's, I believe, No. 18 in total WAR accumulated for his position. That's not H.O.F. material. That said, he's got a chance to get into the top-10 at his position by the time he's finished. If he does that, he'll be joining guys that are mostly Hall of Famers.

    For what it's worth, if Phillips adds 12 more WAR to his career total, he'll be in the top-15 among 2B dating back to 1970. That begins a little more of a compelling argument.
    "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

  15. #74
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRedleg View Post
    Brandon Phillips has answered the bell this year. After signing his big contract - probably the last big contract heíll ever sign, he has come out on fire through 66 games and is on pace for a career season. Itís still early and Brandon will eventually cool off. And heat up again. And cool off. And heat up again. But barring any injuries, heís on pace for another solid season, if not the best season of his career.

    Coming into this season, BP has played six full seasons with the Reds (since being rescued from purgatory in Cleveland by Mr. Krivsky) and in those six seasons, heís averaged 21 HRís, 81 RBIís, 30 2B, 22 SB, and 166 H, to go along with a .779 OPS and .280 BA in an average of 650 plate appearances.

    In this year, his 7th with the Reds, DatDude is on pace for 22 HRís, 103 RBIís, 25 2B, 5 SB, and 169 H in 623 plate appearances and thatís with missing time early on with an hamstring injury. All but SB and 2B are up, as well as a .796 OPS and a .294 BA. His career OPS+ (including this season) is 97, but it is 103 through 4158 PA with the Reds - 90% of his career PAís (he got such a bad start in Cleveland that itís taken a while to get it up to 97). In his last 929 PAís, his OPS+ is a very respectable 117.

    Brandon Phillips has five more years on his contract after this year. If heís not extended in that timeframe, heíll be a free agent at the end of the 2017 season, at the age of 36. Letís say between this year and the next five he manages to keep up his 20+ HR, 80+ RBI, 160+ H, .780ish OPS pace heís played to over the past six years with the Reds.

    By the end of 2017 (age 36) that would give him:

    250 HR
    1000+ RBI
    2000+ H
    200 SB (Iím giving him 10 per year for the next 6 seasons)
    100 OPS+ (103 for the next 6 years, will take his 97 up to 100)


    Phillips has won 3 gold gloves with pretty much a guarantee of a 4th this year. And we know that heíll probably win a bunch more now that heís on the gold glove train. Heck, heíll probably win one or two towards the end of his career when he doesnít even deserve them (see: Ozzie Smith). Letís be conservative and say he finishes with 8 GGís. HOFerís Roberto Alomar, Ryne Sandberg, and Bill Mazeroski won 10, 9, and 8 respectively. Joe Morgan won 5. The only non-Hall of Famerís with more than Phillips right now are Frank White (8), Bobby Richardson (5), Brett Boone (4), Bobby Grich (4), Orlando Hudson (4) and Craig Biggio (4). Biggio could be removed from that list as heíll be in the HOF soon. Itís safe to assume that as long as he stays healthy, Phillips will pass all the non-Hall of Famerís, with the exception of possibly Frank White (8) and that's being conservative.

    Whatís important to note, though, is how spectacular Phillips is at 2B. He could go down as being the Ozzie Smith of his position. Sandberg won a few based on his name. In my opinion, Ron Oester deserved a GG or two, but Ryno was all the rage in the 80ís and seemed to win them simply on popularity. The same could be said for Ozzie (with 13 at SS) towards the end of his career, over one Barry Larkin, but I digress. The point is that that when a player comes around and transcends a position defensively, some warts with their offense (or lack of career counting stats) can go unnoticed when it comes to the HOF (see again: Ozzie Smith with a career OPS+ of 87).

    So the question is (as long as he puts up the offensive numbers mentioned above and wins at least 8 GG's), IN YOUR OPINION, can (or will) Brandon earn his way to the HOF by the time he plays out his contract in 2017?

    2000+ hits, 250+ HR, 1000+ RBI, 200+ SB, 100+ OPSÖwith at least 8 gold gloves. Is that enough to get him in the HOF?

    I say yes.

    Bump.

    A little less than a year later, I still say "yes".

    Of course, I was wrong on one thing. He didn't win the GG last year, but we can all agree that was bogus.

  16. #75
    All work and no play..... Vottomatic's Avatar
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    Re: Brandon Phillips......future Hall of Famer?

    Brandon seems to be getting better with age. If he continues to play the next 3 or 4 years like this season, I could see him having a chance at the HOF.
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