Lou Whitaker was one of my absolute favorite players growing up. I was ecstatic when he hit that homer against Dwight Gooden in the 1986 All-Star Game. At one point, I had every Lou Whitaker baseball card from Topps, Donruss, Fleer, and Sportflics.
I still don't see him as a Hall of Famer.
"I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful
"I can make all the stadiums rock."
-Air Supply
I always wonder what Jeff Stevens thinks about Brandon Phillips. His name is brought up all the time and I wonder how it feels being the stinker in such an enormously lopsided trade.
This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.
Getting back to the original discussion, I just don't see him making the HOF. He belongs in the Hall of Very Very Good. The only current Reds player that has a legit case when his career is over is Votto. If Votto keeps producing at the level he's produced the past couple of years, he's a lock in my opinion.
From The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract (2001):
Top Second Basemen (bold in HOF)
1. Joe Morgan
2. Eddie Collins
3. Rogers Hornsby
4. Jackie Robinson
5. Craig Biggio
6. Nap Lajoie
7. Ryne Sandberg
8. Charlie Gehringer
9. Rod Carew
10. Roberto Alomar
11. Frankie Frisch
12. Bobby Grich
13. Lou Whitaker
14. Billy Herman
15. Nellie Fox
16. Joe Gordon
17. Willie Randolph
18. Bobby Doerr
19. Tony Lazzeri
20. Larry Doyle
21. Chuck Knoblauch
22. Dick McAuliffe
23. Davey Lopes
24. Buddy Myer
25. Johnny Evers
26. Cupid Childs
27. Jim Gilliam
28. Red Schoendienst
29. Bill Mazerowski
30. Bid McPhee
31. Frank White
I don't have a recent version of this, but in 2001 James had Kent at #48 (half-way through his career), so I'm assuming he would be pretty high up on this list if it were done today.
Chase Utley and Phillips might have also cracked the top 30 by now.
I don't think he's updated that list, I belong to his site I'll look this evening
Comparing recent inductees or soon-to-be (Sandberg, Alomar, and Biggio) to Whitaker, Grich and Randolph. I have included career OPS+, WAR, and dWAR, along with popularity (FAME) accomplishments (MVP, All-Star games, Gold Gloves) as well as counting stats (HR, RBI, H, SB, to go along with BA) in games played at Second Base.
-Ryne Sandberg (1981-1997) = 114 OPS+, WAR 64.9, MVP x 1, Top 5 MVP x 3, AS x 10, GG x 9, dWAR 12.8, 1982 G @ 2B (92% games played)…..O stats @ 2B: 277 HR, 1007 RBI, 2225 H, 310 SB, .285 BA).
-Roberto Alomar (1988-2004) = 116 OPS+, WAR 62.9, Top 5 MVP x 2, AS x 12, GG x 10, dWAR 2.4, 2304 G @ 2B (97% games played)…..O stats @ 2B: 207 HR, 1107 RBI, 2687 H, 470 SB, .301 BA).
-Craig Biggio (1988-2007) = 112 OPS+, WAR 62.1, Top 5 MVP x 2, AS x 7, GG x 4, dWAR -3.8, 1978 G @ 2B (69% games played)…..O stats @ 2B: 226 HR, 883 RBI, 2230 H, 321 SB, .285 BA).
-Lou Whitaker (1977-1995) = 117 OPS+, WAR 71.4, AS x 5, GG x 3, dWAR 15.4, 2228 G @ 2B (93% games played)…..O stats @ 2B: 239 HR, 1041 RBI, 2312 H, 140 SB, .277 BA).
-Bobby Grich (1970-1986) = 125 OPS+, WAR 67.3, AS x 6, GG x 4, dWAR 16.2, 1740 G @ 2B (87% games played)…..O stats @ 2B: 197 HR, 753 RBI, 1609 H, 85 SB, .267 BA).
-Willie Randolph (1975-1992) = 104 OPS+, WAR 63, AS x 6, GG x 0, dWAR 19.4, 2132 G @ 2B (97% games played)…..O stats @ 2B: 54 HR, 679 RBI, 2190 H, 269 SB, .276 BA).
-Grich and Whitaker lead everyone in OPS+ and WAR.
-Randolph (19.4), Grich (16.2), and Whitaker (15.4) lead all in dWAR (Defensive WAR).
-Sandberg and Alomar dominate the popularity contest of All Star games and Gold Gloves.
-Shocking that Randolph never won a GG, but he lost out to Grich ('75, '76), White ('77-'82, '86, '87), and Whitaker ('83-'85). Towards the end of his career Harold Reynolds ('88-'90) won a few and then Alomar took over ('91-'96, '98-'01).
Top Second Basemen by dWAR (Career Defensive WAR/HOF in bold):
Bill Mazerowski (1956-1972) = dWAR 23.8 (GG x 8)
Joe Gordon (1938-1950) = dWAR 22.4
Frankie Frisch (1919-1937) = dWAR 21.6
Frank White (1973-1990) = dWAR 21.4 (GG x 8)
Nellie Fox (1947-1965) = dWAR 20.9
Willie Randolph (1975-1992) = dWAR 19.4 (GG x 0)
Bobby Grich (1970-1986) = dWAR 16.2 (GG x 4)
Bid McPhee (1882-1899) = dWAR 16.2
Chase Utley (1882-1899) = dWAR 16.2
Johnny Evers (1902-1929) = dWAR 15.4
Lou Whitaker (1977-1995) = dWAR 15.4 (GG x 3)
Red Schoendienst (1945-1963) = dWAR 15.2
Mark Ellis (2002-) = dWAR 14.3 (GG x 0)
Gil McDougald (1951-1960, 1336 G) = dWAR 14.0
Rogers Hornsby (1915-1937) dWAR 13.9
Bobby Doerr (1937-1951) = dWAR 13.4
Lonny Frey (1933-1948, 1535 G) = dWAR 13.3
Ryne Sandberg (1981-1997) = dWAR 12.8
Charlie Gehringer (1924-1942) = dWAR 10.7
Nap Lajoie (1896-1916) = dWAR 10.1
Jackie Robinson (1947-1956) = dWAR 10.0
Brandon Phillips is at 7.0 currently, which would put him at 13 to 14 if he keeps up his current pace by 2017. Surprising to see Utley that high already. He should probably have a gold glove by now. Now that Phillips is on the gold glove train (and Utley has had knee issues) it's unlikey he ever wins one.
Last edited by BuckeyeRedleg; 06-20-2012 at 02:12 PM.
No, Phillips is not a future Hall of Famer.
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I think he's on the wrong side of 30 to become what Utley did consistently before his injury.
He's not much different than Pedroia, Cano, Kinsler, Zobrist, Uggla etc. It's hard to imagine that Phillips' defense wont decline over the next 5 years while his bat would suddenly become consistently better than the league average bat that has defined his career to this point.
Phillips is a nice player. He's been an above average starting position player who has largely been a second tier middle infielder. That's a great career but not a HOF one. As he turns 31, its just tough seeing him as a player that not only doesn't decline but has significantly greater value than he has to this point.
"This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
I don't think he is a Hall-of-Famer by any means based on what he's already done, but it depends on how much longer he can sustain being a productive player.
In the past 20 years, he's, I believe, No. 18 in total WAR accumulated for his position. That's not H.O.F. material. That said, he's got a chance to get into the top-10 at his position by the time he's finished. If he does that, he'll be joining guys that are mostly Hall of Famers.
For what it's worth, if Phillips adds 12 more WAR to his career total, he'll be in the top-15 among 2B dating back to 1970. That begins a little more of a compelling argument.
"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda
Brandon seems to be getting better with age. If he continues to play the next 3 or 4 years like this season, I could see him having a chance at the HOF.
redsfandan (05-24-2013)
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