Not really. Most are commenting on how absurd it is to pay a guy who's played 30 games more than $25M. Add the luxury tax, and it's over $40M cost to NY.
Lin's a lot of hype. I have no idea why Houston would let two cheaper, better PG options go (Lowry and Dragic). Seems like they're more interested in selling shirts than winning. Oh and chasing that Dwight Howard dream that may never come true.
Also, Lin's camp is surprised and they want the Knicks to match. Should've thought about that before signing the renegotiated offer sheet.
From a marketing standpoint, Lin will make the Knicks a lot of cash, and his third year deal, an expiring $14M contract, would be a valuable trade chip, if necessary. But my gut feeling is that the Knicks owner (Dolan) can afford to match, but feels that Lin's camp was disloyal when it renegotiated the offer sheet to a much higher third year number. Dolan takes things personally, and in this instance may choose to keep his checkbook in his pocket.
Other "Linsanity" issues w/the Knicks include bailing out on his teammates in the playoffs because he was only "85%" ... and Linsanity going to his head a bit. Some scouts say that Lin isn't better than Felton, and the Knicks made a shrewd move here.
Last edited by NJReds; 07-16-2012 at 10:09 AM.
"The players make the manager, it's never the other way." - Sparky Anderson
Lin's 23 and could blossom into a top ten PG.
That contract is about going rate for that type of player.
Too, he sells jerseys and puts fannies in the seats, both needed in Houston.
The only way New York wins the title is if a guy blossoms into the upper echelon group. Lin was their best shot at doing that. I understand the luxury tax concerns and the doubt about Lin, but Lin pays not only for himself, but I'd bet his merchandising and ticket interest would it off and then some.
It's not a great move, but it's a good move my Morey.
BTW, despite all the deals, if Houston doesn't grab Howard, they have another one of those 8th seed/ 9th place teams in the West:
Omer Asick C
Donatas Motiejunas PF
Chandler Parsons/ Terrence Jones SF
Kevin Martin SG
Jeremy Lin PG
Bench
Toney Douglas PG
Jeremy Lamb SG
Gary Forbes/ Jon Leuer SF
Marcus Morris/ Patrick Patterson/ Royce White PF
Jerome Jordan/ Josh Larrison/ Greg Smith C
Lin and Martin will both go over 15 ppg and could very well go over 20 apiece. Lamb, as a backup, could end up playing 20 mpg+ and averaging 7-10. Motiejunas is a sleeper that most experts think could go 15/10 with starter's minutes. The Jones/ Parsons/ Forbes/ Leuer small forward quartet all have the ability to post 15 given starter's minutes or double figures if given the sixth man spot. Asik will get double figures in put-backs alone. Douglas, Patterson, White, and Larrison all can put up double figure-ish minutes win 25 mpg or so.
They're not going to be special, but they'll be decent.
Maybe.
Very, very young.
Variatio delectat - Cicero
According to PER, Houston lost of its top players.
Lin's PER (20.0) trumps both Lowry's (18.9) and Dragic's (18.0) by a fairly substantial margin. He's a better rebounder and defender than either point guard. Too, he's got upside neither of the other two has touched. That 20.0 PER is nearly superstar level, btw. With a new-found confidence and extended time on the court, he may even jump a point or two. He's only 23.
Too, between Jerome Johnson, Josh Harrellson, and Asik, the Rocket's center position looks to be around league average, While Dalembert and Camby had higher PERs last season, there's not much difference between them. Too, because of youth, the former trio has upside.
Scola grades out as slightly more than league average as a PF. Montiejunas has been, according to many scouts, a major surprise and a kid (21) who could really blossom this year. In his first game in the states, we went for 25. Add Royce White and others, and the upside looks like a good move.
Small forward Parsons should be a bit better than last season's rookie season. Add Jones-- who's gone for 17/8/2/2 in limited Summer League minutes-- and that should more than replace Chase Budinger's contributions from last season.
Martin profiles to be better, as last season was his worst in five years. So does an injured Patrick Patterson and (hopefully) a rededicated Marcus Morris.
I don't think they'll be all that good, per se. But, with the talent on hand-- Lin and Martin, the young forwards, and centers-- they'll be okay. When compared to the others in the same boat in the West.
Minnesota looks better on paper, but they only won 30-ish games last season. Phoenix and Dallas took two steps in the wrong direction. That was their primary competition for the 8th, 9th, and 10th spots going forward. Sure, both LA teams, San Antonio, OKC, and perhaps Memphis (depending on injuries) are better. But Houston is right there-- perhaps a notch below-- Portland (especially if Batum goes to Minnesota), Utah, and Denver.
I can see some room for optimism with all that youth, but that lineup is chock full of question marks and junk.
Unless Asik improves markedly, that center position is brutal. You can't sell me otherwise.
No clue what you're going to get from Montiejunas, but I don't like an untested 222 lb. 21-year-old as my starting PF. Royce White could be a nice piece, but he's a huge unknown now. Really like him as a passer though.
Parsons scored almost 10/game on 51% eFG, but I just can't sell myself on him being threat, especially when he's your third option. Terrence Jones, another unknown.
Kevin Martin's a nice player on the wrong side of his career trajectory. I wouldn't look for a bump in any efficiency numbers. Perhaps aggregates will see an uptick, but that'll just be usage.
Call me skeptical, but I'm not expecting Lin to duplicate last year's performance. I think played out of his mind for a stretch. Don't think he's anywhere near that PER. It sounds like we're going to get the chance to see if he's superstar caliber though, because on this team he's going to run the show.
Throw in McHale's ineptitude as a head coach and this is a sinking ship.
It's pretty obvious what Morey's doing here. Absolutely selling the farm for Howard; collecting young, attractive guys with upside. Even if the deal falls through, you hope a handful of them pan and you've got a lottery pick and some young talent to work with going forward.
In the meantime, hope like hell Lin's cape stays affixed and sit back and count the money.
Lin's stats are boosted by D'Antoni's run-and-gun offense. He's a poor defender and a turnover machine, but I'll take your word that he's better defensively than Lowry and Dragic.
On the otherhand, Lin is smart and did improve his game a whole lot as the season progressed. He does have untapped potential.
"The players make the manager, it's never the other way." - Sparky Anderson
PER adjusts for style of play.
Lin played very well against some horrific competition at the beginning of his "run". Linsanity happened against New Jersey, Utah, Washington, LAL (Derek Fisher can't stay in front of anyone), Minny, Sactown, Toronto, New Orleans, and Dallas (Kidd is beyond done).
Against Miami: 1-11, 8 turnovers
Against Philly (and Jrue Holiday, an excellent defender): a combined 9-35 with 8 turnovers
Against Rondo: 6-16, 6 turnovers
His PER may be great, but it is out of a ridiculously small sample size. I hope he does well, but he has a ton to prove.
Variatio delectat - Cicero
I actually like what Dallas is doing. They are clearing massive amounts of cap space (and may end up with Dwight anyway after next season) and added some interesting parts. Kaman is a nice player, Elton still does things. He is in the Scott Rolen part of his career, but he still puts up surprisingly solid stats (he almost won me a fantasy league two years ago). Collision is an upgrade from Kidd. That team won't be great, but there are at least 7 legitimate NBA players (and one of the greatest PFs of all time). Next year, they will be at 39 million, with 31 of that in Dirk and Marion and with team options on Vince and Dominique Jones.
Variatio delectat - Cicero
As far as the West next season, it does seem that the bottom is falling out (whereas the East is steadily improving its depth). Portland, Phoenix, and Houston are all hot messes. Utah is puzzling (is Devin Harris that awful a player/teammate), and Sacramento isn't ready (and may never be).
Now, if New Orleans can hold onto Eric Gordon, they become very interesting moving forward, as does Minnesota. As for Golden State, I alternate between loving their roster and absolutely hating it. I love Bogut (when he plays), I love Curry (when he plays), and they have very nice complementary parts, but I don't know if it will actually work.
Variatio delectat - Cicero
O.J. Mayo announced on his Twitter feed Monday night that he will sign with the Dallas Mavericks, joining a roster that has been drastically overhauled this offseason.
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